by Brian Nadeau
November 7, 2019
Back to battle with this week’s Stronach 5, which continues to be one of the best bets on the track. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 45 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R8 (4:10 ET) – 3up N2L at 6 furlongs
The opener is deep, though I’m not sure how competitive, as there are several who can’t win. Of those who can, I prefer #9 AWESOME AGENDA (12-1), since it’s never a bad thing to be a rousing MCL winner in a race like this, and #10 MAKE THE RULES (5-1), who drops in class and goes third-off a long layoff. I’ll also add in #13 BARAVELLI, who just missed at the level last time, though this wide draw did him no favors.
Pk5 A horses: 9,10,13 (listed in order of preference)
I don’t necessarily trust #3 BEEN REDEEMED (5-1), but the drop in class is significant and that slow 2nd for 14k last time might play here, while #6 HEY PREZ (10-1) is another dropper and the barn change to Morris could be a sneaky wake up.
Pk5 B horses: 3,6
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park West R7 (4:21 ET) – 3up ALW at 7 ½ furlongs (turf)
I’ll stab a bit with #5 BLOCKBUSTER (8-1), who hasn’t been out since January, though Casse is 16% off this break, and with expected improvement he’s got every right to make a dent. The more logical is #9 BELGRANO (5-2), even from this tough post, as he’s a better, faster horse than the rest, and has been facing better in NY as well. I’ll also toss in #7 MANTRA (6-1), who gets a big jock upgrade to Bravo and that close 2nd last time makes him a player.
Pk5 A horses: 5,9,7
The rail and that fast race last time says you have to look at #1 MOROCCO (10-1), even though he could bounce, but the price will be right if you believe he’s running back to that fast 2nd last time.
Pk5 B horses: 1
Leg 3: Laurel Park R9 (4:40 ET) – 3up 10k N3L at 6 furlongs
I’ll take the class dropping #4 SUNMAN (5-1) over #8 ZITARROSA (7-2) and #10 FACT OF WAR (9-2), though all three are very logical, as the former has been facing better while the latter two go off the claim for Farrior and Ness, which are 27% and 26% moves, respectively.
Pk5 A horses: 4,8,10
You might be able to go it alone on the top-3, though #6 HARGUS (8-1) and #5 NAUTICAL NATURE (8-1) both drop and will offer value, and aren’t too far behind on paper, so if they wake up against this reduced group, I want to be there.
Pk5 B horses: 6,5
Leg 4: Golden Gate Fields R3 (4:48 ET) – 3upfm 4k claimer* at 1-mile
Budget players will single #4 FRUITFULLY (1-1), and I get it, but she nibbles more than she wins and note the big win two-back was on dirt, so she’s a little sketchier than the ML says to me. With that being said, I’ll go with #7 MOONLIGHT MYSTIQUE (5-1), who will offer value, has run well here before, and should like getting off the dirt.
Pk5 A horses: 7,4
With just seven entered, and a heavy, heavy favorite, I can’t use two on top and then anyone else down below, especially since the gap seems like a seismic one. If you want a name or two then it’s #1 Warrens Lil Margie (4-1) and #3 Euphemistic (6-1), though neither seem all that trustworthy.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 5: Gulfstream Park West R8 (4:51 ET) – 2yo 20k MCL at 1-mile (turf)
I’ve ranted plenty of times about post position in these races, but it just seems like #9 DELIA’S PRIDE (3-1) just has to win this off her last race, as this is a wretched crew and that 3rd last time makes her look imposing here. With that being said, I’ll also use the well-drawn #2 CAT CAY (8-1), who gets a huge trainer change to De La Cerda, who is 17% first-turf, and a few of her dirt runs would give her a puncher’s chance here.
Pk5 A horses: 9,2
I’m probably supposed to use someone else, but I just can’t come up with one, since they look terrible on paper and the best other turfer, #11 Debbies Utube Diva (15-1), drew very poorly and was 34-1 last time. I guess #5 Queenoftheminstrel (9-2) and #6 Wonder Blondy (4-1) wouldn’t make me faint if they win, but they can do it without me off their previous runs.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Main Ticket: 9,10,13 with 5,9,7 with 4,8,10 with 7,4 with 9,2 = $108
Leg 1 B Backup: 3,6 with 5,9,7 with 4,8,10 with 7,4 with 9,2 = $72
Leg 2 B Backup: 9,10,13 with 1 with 4,8,10 with 7,4 with 9,2 = $36
Leg 3 B Backup: 9,10,13 with 5,9,7 with 6,5 with 7,4 with 9,2 = $72