by Jeff Siegel
November 14, 2019
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies
Thursday, November 14, 2019
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, Pick-3s, Pick-4s, Pick-5s, and the Pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
The selections are available every racing day no later than 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B
Single: 3-Harper’s Gallop
Forecast: Harper’s Gallop ran well when second at this level over this track and distance two runs back and a repeat of that race today probably gets her a diploma. The J. Carava-trained filly was pulled up when her saddle slipped in a two-turn grass event last time out, so toss that race out. She’s back where she belongs today, so in a dreadfully weak maiden $20,000 claimer for fillies and mares we’ll make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: X
Forecast: Hariboux adds Lasix for his second start since being imported from England and after finishing fifth in the Zuma Beach Stakes last month at Santa Anita the J. Mullins-trained gelding tackles an easier group today and should make the most of it. His form overseas was fairly solid and will beat this field if repeated in this five-runner affair. At 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, he won’t offer much value other than as a short price rolling exotic single.
RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Dr. Bagley; 4-Fast as Cass
Forecast: Dr. Bagley has rising speed figures and rates top billing in this modest restricted $16,000 claiming main track miler. In a race without a true front-runner, the J. Mullins-trained gelding could easily find himself as the controlling speed and if not pressured early should be capable of holding sway. Fast as Cass is just 1-for-17 during his career so he’s not one to trust, but the S. Knapp-trained son of Unusual Heat has speed figures that put him in the fray, and he projects to enjoy a good stalking trip outside and have every chance. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics with slight preference on top to Dr. Bagley.
RACE 4: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 5-Speedy Justice
Forecast: Speedy Justice is a first timer from the B. Baffert barn (42% with debut runners) and sports a pair of impressive 59 3/5 workouts, the most recent of which was accomplished from the gate in a team that what was visually quite impressive. The son of Dominus has the type of early speed that should be quite effective at this abbreviated sprint trip, and if he handles the grass the son of Dominus could be hard to beat. Too Late and Prince Magician both have shown good ability and will take some beating, but we’ll go with ‘Justice as a straight play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to his morning line of 5/2.
RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: X
Single: 6-Oil Can Knight
Forecast: Oil Can Knight moves up a notch after winning a $20,000 claimer restricted to 3-year-olds at Santa Anita just 11 days ago. He lands the cozy outside draw while shedding four pounds, so there’s every reason to believe he can score right back at what should be a fairly short price. With a prior win over the local main track and with M. Garcia staying aboard, the son of Can the Man looks like another logical short price rolling exotic single.
RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Trust Fund Kitty; 7-Kittyhawk Lass
Forecast: Kittyhawk Lass and Trust Fund Kitty finished second and third, respectively, in a similar starter’s allowance event at Santa Anita last month and they meet again as the major players in this mile grass affair. ‘Lass earned a career top speed figure in that race and with just seven lifetime starts probably has a bit more upside than ‘Kitty, who is just 1-for-16 in her career but projects to enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip from her rail post position. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have an extra ticket or two pressing with ‘Lass on top.
RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Awesome Anywhere; 3-Threefiveindia
Forecast: Threefiveindia just crushed a softer field by seven widening lengths in his first-off-the-claim for P. Miller and should get plenty play off that impressive performance despite the relatively quick 13-day turnaround and the raise in class. The other concern is his shortening from seven furlongs to three-quarters, a distance he’s a career 0-for-7, so we’ll use him but certainly not single him. Awesome Anywhere loves to win (he’s 6-for-13) but has been away since January and must leave from the rail, a difficult post at this distance. His workout at Los Alamitos for J. Hollendorfer indicate fitness and he does have a triple-digit Beyer speed figure to go back two, so we’ll include him as well.
RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Lightning Fast
Forecast: Lightning Fast has the classic two sprints and a stretch-out pattern and a pedigree (Violence) that should allow him to handle two-turns and grass. The W. Spawr-trained colt is comfortably drawn inside, catches a field without much pace and could easily find himself on the front end without much pressure. In a race in which the main contenders look suspect, we’ll make him a straight play and rolling exotic single at or near his morning line of 9/2.