by Brian Nadeau
November 20, 2019
Back to battle in this week’s Stronach 5, which once again has a 100k guarantee. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 45 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R8 (3:39 ET) – 3up 10k N2L at 6 � furlongs
I often advocate singling a strong favorite in the opening leg of a horizontal sequence, since the betting public doesn’t want to go out early, and therefore they are apt to go deeper than they should. And I think that’s the right move here, as #6 ALWAYS FOREIGN (2-1), who drops from a 40k in NY after catching slop off the Sharp claim, while catching a solid field in fast time. There’s also no one here to be scared off, and even slight regression should get the job done, though I think he’s apt to move forward off that run, especially on dry land.
Pk5 A horses: 6 (listed in order of preference)
The other reason I think you should be singling is that the perceived main danger, #4 Bucked Tooth (9-2), got beat 4 1/2 lengths last time and was a neck in front of 35-1 shot #9 Seany P (8-1), so that just doesn’t look like a strong race/effort to me. You could also give a look to #13 Call Triple A (8-1), who probably needed his comeback last time off the 15-month break, but couldn’t beat Pa-bred allowance runners at Parx and now plunges in for 10k.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park West R6 (3:52 ET) – 3up AOC (25k/N1X) at 1-mile (turf)
I’m just going to try and blanket this race, as I don’t really have a strong opinion and I think you’re supposed to get through by using #5 NAVY ARMED GUARD (9-2), who drops in class off an impossible spot at Keeneland, #6 CAUSE FOR PARDON (5-2), a sharp winner here off the Hess claim last time, #1 FACE OF VICTORY (3-1), another Kentucky class dropper, and #7 NOTORIOUS NICK (7-2), who just stormed home here to beat Florida breds for Joseph.
Pk5 A horses: 5,6,1,7
I could use #8 The Mighty Judge (10-1), but he’s lost six straight, drew worst of all, and that close 5th last time was at 26-1, so it looks a little fluky to me.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 3: Laurel Park R9 (4:10 ET) – 3up 16k MCL at 1-mile
Tough sledding here, as the favorites all look the same and no one remotely stands out. I’ll go with the upside of #3 GOODLUCKCHUCK (9-2), since he’s run just twice and the group he was just 4th to last Friday was better than this one. It looks like a spread race though, so #2 BAYANO (3-1) is a must-use on the drop, #9 DYNA’S KNIGHT (5-1) has been knocking at the door and has run just four times, and #5 DAPER’S DRINK (6-1) was run well enough in his last two on the dirt to be given a big shot.
Pk5 A horses: 3,2,9,5
Those four should get you through, but #10 UP AGAINST IT (6-1) didn’t run terribly in his first three starts on dirt and has been on the turf since, so if he’s simply a better horse now then he’s in with a price chance.
Pk5 B horses: 10
Leg 4: Golden Gate Fields R3 (4:48 ET) – 2f MSW at 5 1/2 furlongs
I don’t know who’s going to win this one, but I think you want to remember the names of the gals that don’t, as this looks like a really good heat and has the makings of a key race. As for today, I’ll go with #2 MISS RYLEIGH (9-2) on top for a Delia barn that is having a good meet and is 16% with firsters, though #1 KAYLA’S COWGIRL (4-1) is a serious player for Wong, who himself is 16% on debut and the works here sure whisper ready. The other Wong firster, #6 DYNASTY OF HER OWN (2-1) drew better and has also worked well, so she needs to be used, as does #5 MYLITTLERUNWAY (5-2), who really improved last time and has what can be a key experience edge here.
Pk5 A horses: 2,1,6,5
The works are slow on #3 LADY CROCKER (6-1), and France is just 0-for-2 with firsters, but Alvarado is here, this miss has a big pedigree, and this is a barn that is 9-for-31 on the year, so let’s at least sneak her in as a backup.
Pk5 B horses: 3
Leg 5: Gulfstream Park West R8 (4:54 ET) – 3up 8k claimer at 1 1/16 miles (turf)
In what seems like an impossible race, I’ll take the two MSW droppers, #7 QUEEN OF GOD (4-1) and #9 BEE WINGS (9-2), as they might be best anyway, before taking into account the big drop, which could really put them over the top against a group like this. The former chased and tired here going a mile in his debut and should only improve off that, while the latter was in a good race in her debut at Indiana Grand and should relish the added ground and turn she gets.
Pk5 A horses: 7,9
The backups are a problem, as you could literally use about eight here, but that’s not working on a budget, so we’ll have to narrow a bit. I’ll go with three; #1 MARICOPA (7-2), who really improved in her turf debut and drew perfectly; #2 I’LL DO IT MY WAY (6-1), who could be the controlling speed in her turf debut for Spatz, who is 6-for-18 at the meet; and #6 ROYAL CHANT (10-1), an MSW dropper who could move forward in her second start off the Maragh claim. You could also give a look to #11 Silver Palms (6-1), but this wide draw isn’t ideal.
*** Please note that to keep the cost down, I’ll single #3 Goodluckchuck in Leg 3. ***
Pk5 B horses: 1,2,6
Main Ticket: 6 with 5,6,1,7 with 3,2,9,6 with 2,1,6,5 with 7,9 = $128
Leg 3 B Backup: 6 with 5,6,1,7 with 10 with 2,1,6,5 with 7,9 = $32
Leg 4 B Backup: 6 with 5,6,1,7 with 3,2,9,5 with 3 with 7,9 = $32
Leg 5 B Backup: 6 with 5,6,1,7 with 3 with 2,1,6,5 with 1,2,6 = $48