by Jeff Siegel
November 22, 2019
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies
Friday, November 22, 2019
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, Pick-3s, Pick-4s, Pick-5s, and the Pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
The selections are available every racing day no later than 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Today’s Day Makers: View Video
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Miracle March; 6-Puriano
Forecast: Puriano drops to the bottom, removes blinkers, stretches out for the first time and has better than par speed figures for this level. If he can act around two turns, this would be an ideal spot to show it. Miracle March returned off a long layoff and flashed good early speed before fading in a sprint two months ago. The recent work tab is encouraging and from the rail the J. Sadler-trained gelding seems certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics, though on this track inside speed over a distance of ground isn’t necessarily a good thing. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics with slight preference on top to Puriano.
RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+
Single: 3-The Stiff
Forecast: This race originally was scheduled for turf but has been switched to the main track. The Stiff has the first time-for-a-tag angle, switches to A. Cedillo, and has the pedigree to handle dirt, though all of his previous outings have been on grass. The son of Danza will be doing his best work late and rates top billing in a race that – due the surface switch – probably should be approached with caution. You can use him as a rolling exotic single or simply sit it out.
RACE 3: Post 1:32 PT. Grade: X
Forecast: Saralin was well-backed in her debut but was worn down late by the more experienced Gingham and settled for second while five lengths clear of the rest in a promising effort at this distance at Santa Anita last month. The daughter of Curlin seems certain to benefit from that effort and as a first time Lasix user with F. Prat staying aboard the S. Callaghan-trained filly seems set to graduate. At 6/5 of the morning line she’ll be unplayable in the straight pool, but we can use her as a no-value rolling exotic single.
RACE 4: Post 2:03 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Go Time; 6-Commander
Forecast: This race originally was scheduled for turf but has been switched to the main track. Best advice is to tread lightly. Go Time seeks some of that valuable ship and win money in his first start since joining the P. Miller barn, and the Florida invader gets A. Cedillo and Lasix while stretching out from five furlongs to a flat mile. His maiden debut score in mid-August was solid and after subsequently producing a series of workouts at Churchill Downs the son of Fed Biz arrives fit and ready for a repeat score. His pedigree suggests the added ground and the switch to dirt won’t be an issue. Commander has been chasing tougher since arriving from France and may have found his proper level today. The P. D’Amato-trained colt is wheeled back in eight day after finishing a no excuse third in a first-level allowance affair and may find this easier gang with his capabilities. Of course, he’s abilities on dirt are unknown.
RACE 5: Post 2:34 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Carnelian Hero; 6-Extractor
Forecast: Carnelian Hero, in the money in both of his starts and beaten a nose last time out in a similar maiden $50,000 maiden claiming sprint, rates top billing after raising his Beyer speed figure 17 points between his first and second start. R. Bejarano stays aboard the Old Topper gelding who seems the logical top pick, though at 7/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower there’s really not too much we can do with him. Extractor is an intriguing first-time starter from the B. Koriner barn (strong stats with debut runners) and shows a series of workouts at Los Alamitos that should have him fit enough. We’ll toss him in on a ticket or two as a back-up or a saver.
RACE 6: Post 3:04 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Kookie Gal; 5-Kynance
Forecast: Kynance has rising speed figures and earned a career top number when a close fourth in a tougher affair over the all-weather track at Golden Gate Fields last month. From a high percentage outfit, the Irish-bred filly has run well over conventional dirt in the past and arrives fit and ready for the money run while realistically dropping into the optional $40,000 claiming ranks. G. Franco should have her in a comfortable stalking position outside throughout. Kookie Gal has two prior starts on dirt, and both were quite good. In her second off a long layoff for P. Miller she should be set for a forward move after a solid third place performance on grass at this level at Santa Anita earlier this month. We’ll try to get by using just these two with Kynance, at 6-1 on the morning line, getting top billing.
RACE 7: Post 3:34 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Velvet Queen; 3-Claudelle; 8-Catorca
Forecast: Catorca makes her first start since being claimed for $35,000 by J. Mullins and the daughter of Lemon Drop Kid sports the route-to-sprint angle (always effective over the Del Mar main track) while making a major jockey switch to F. Prat, so we’re expecting a significant forward move. Though strictly a route-type throughout most of her career, she does have the proper style for this extended sprint trip and a bullet half mile workout in 47 seconds earlier this month for her new connections gives indication that she’s spot on. Claudelle seeks her third straight win, though her Beyer speed figure dropped 13 points between her most recent victory and her race before last. She’ll be part of the pace throughout and could score again if not pressured early. Velvet Queen easily won a $50,000 seller restricted to 3-year-olds two-turning on turf last month at Santa Anita, but this will be her first career start on the main track, so its unknown whether she can repeat that type of effort under these conditions. We’ll go three deep in our rolling exotics and then have extra tickets keying Catorca on top.
RACE 8: Post 4:04 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Big Time Grammy; 3-California Kook; 5-Ride Sally Ride
Forecast: Big Time Grammy is improving with racing and appears set for another forward move but may prefer turf to dirt and this race has been switched to the main track. The daughter of Mr. Big found her best stride too late when third in a similar affair last month at Santa Anita and land a good inside post while switching to F. Prat. Basically, it all comes down to her ability to handle the main track. California Kook was bet down to favoritism in her debut in the same race Big Time Grammy exits but was never a factor while finishing a well-beaten sixth. Today she gets Lasix and blinkers for a barn that has superior stats with second-time starters (23% with a significant flat-bet profit). Ride Sally Ride was fourth in that common race Oct. 19. She retains T. Baze, and after pulling hard last time out seems likely to be more relaxed today with the removal of blinkers. At 8-1 on the morning line she’s worth including somewhere, especially since her pedigree suggests that she may prefer dirt to grass.