by Brian Nadeau
February 26, 2020
Big doings in this week’s Stronach 5, as there is a 167k carryover to go after, which should have the pool approaching $1 million. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 45 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R8 (3:50 ET) – 4upfm 5k claimer at 6 furlongs
It’s rare that you get a relatively defined race at Laurel to open the sequence but I think we have it here, as there are clear some haves, and some have nots entered. I’ll use four on top, with #3 FIFTEEN K getting top billing on the class drop, as she dips into the restricted ranks here. The class rise could prove worrisome for #12 HAND RAIL but she doesn’t meet any world beaters, so she hits hard, s does #6 CROSSINGTHEVALLEY, who bounced last time but might make amends here. I’ll also use #9 ACIANO, who plummets off a dismal return but could wake up against this group.
Pk5 A horses: 3,12,6,9 (listed in order of preference)
The post keeps #1 TRIMMED IN GREY from being an A, as she will have to work out a trip from a tricky draw, though that 2nd at the level last time makes her a player here.
Pk5 B horses: 1
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park R8 (4:33 ET) – 4up 16k at 1-mile (turf)
Since I’m going to be spreading in the other legs in the sequence I think this is the spot to be a bit bold and take a single, and I’ll go with #7 GOSILENTLY, who should be the controlling speed, was just a good 2nd at the level, and simply looks like a better horse than the rest of his modest rivals. It’s also one of those “if not him, then who?” types of races, and since I can’t spread 6-deep, I’ll go with the one that looks best to me.
Pk5 A horses: 7
I’ve got to be a bit imaginative to use my three backups, #5 DISCREET HEAT, #8 AMERICAN NINJA, and #2 UNLOCKTHEPOTENTIAL, since it would cost way too much to use them with my other A’s, so I’ll have to condense things down to my super A’s, which are as follows:
Leg 1: 3,12
Leg 3: 2,8,5
Leg 4: 5,6
Leg 5: 1,12
Pk5 B horses: 5,8,2
Leg 3: Golden Gate Fields R3 (4:45 ET) – 3yo 25k MCL at 6 furlongs
I’d like to think we can get out of this one by using three, who cover all the bases, as #2 MISTER MCLEAN is the best of the proven runners at the level and has some heavy speed; #8 THATSABADBOY is an MSW dropper who has never been in for a tag; and #5 BIG PERM is a Wong firster (16%) with a slew of works and has Hernandez, who is 16-for-30 when riding this barn.
Pk5 A horses: 2,8,5
The other two logicals are #4 Gem State and #6 Trabieso Avelito, but neither are overly inspiring, and don’t look nearly as good as the top trio, so I’ll go it alone on the top line.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 4: Santa Anita R3 (4:59 ET) – 3upfm 50k MCL at 5 � furlongs
Tough sledding here, as this is a real mixed bag full of tough to trust gals who have disappointed mor often than not. The MSW drop should agree to #5 MALIBU CAT and #6 RANEEM, but the former didn’t fire in her lone start on dirt and the latter is an 0-for-7 Baffert maiden, so it’s tough to love either. I don’t think being a firster here is a bad thing, so #3 FRESH FACE could be aptly named, and Sadler is 16% on debut.
Pk5 A horses: 5,6,3
If nothing else, #8 PALM D’ORO is in form and seems to be going the right way, and her speed should play here, so I’ll use her, but she’s also 0-for-8 and looks like a lesser version of Raneem, which is why she’s a supporting actress only.
Pk5 B horses: 8
Leg 5: Gulfstream Park R10 (5:33 ET) – 4up 16k N2L at 1 1/16 miles (turf)
When I initially saw this race I figured there would be 10 win candidates and it would be a real problem, but it actually doesn’t look that bad, and I think I can get out with three, at least on the top line, so that’s how I’ll play it. I’ll take the post and class drop with #1 NINJA DUST, who has been facing better in NY for Martin and now goes to Orseno, who is 14% with newcomers. If #12 CRUPI’S PIZZA DOM had drawn better he’d be on top, but this wide draw is a worry, as is the June layoff and significant class drop, so I’ll use him second. Lastly I’ve got #4 NOBLE LION, who ran well twice against winners when last seen in September and October for Weaver, and seems realistically spotted in his first start for an underrated Rubley barn.
Pk5 A horses: 1,12,4
I think #2 RED FOG could be a fringe A, and Mazza is solid and rarely claims one, but this is a tougher group than he was just facing, so he does need to improve. He needs to run faster, but #7 SIR HOSKI is also in good form and has been 3rd in two straight, so he’s not impossible either, though he’s down on the list.
Pk5 B horses: 2,7
Main Ticket: 3,12,6,9 with 7 with 2,8,5 with 5,6,3 with 1,12,4 = $108
Leg 1 B Backup: 1 with 7 with 2,8,5 with 5,6,3 with 1,12,4 = $27
Leg 2 B Backup: 3,12 with 5,8,2 with 2,8,5 with 5,6 with 1,12 = $72
Leg 4 B Backup: 3,12,6,9 with 7 with 2,8,5 with 8 with 1,12,4 = $36
Leg 5 B Backup: 3,12,6,9 with 7 with 2,8,5 with 5,6,3 with 2,7 = $72