by Brian Nadeau
March 5, 2020
Back to battle in the Stronach 5, which has been easily surpassing the 100k guarantee, and in some cases doubling it. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 45 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R8 (3:49 ET) – 4up N1X* at 7 furlongs
In what could be a match race between two talented, lightly raced prospects, I’ll side with the post position of #8 MUNGOJERRIE (9-2), since he drew a lot better than #1 BENINTENDI (8-5), as the former can dictate from the outside, while the latter may take all the worst of it as the inside speed. Don’t let the odds discrepancy fool you either, as they figure about 9-5 and 2-1 by post time, off equally big figure 2nds, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see ‘Jerrie go favored either.
Pk5 A horses: 8,1 (listed in order of preference)
Those looking to play against two heavy favorites will mention the possibility that the pace falls apart, and it’s something to consider a bit, which is why I’ll also use Parx invader #3 POPIZAR (9-2), who needs to answer the class question, but has the running style to pick up the pieces, and should like the added ground he gets here too.
Pk5 B horses: 3
Leg 2: Laurel Park R9 (4:23 ET) – 4upfm 5k at 5 1/2 furlongs
The first of two spread races is upon us, as this one looks very evenly matched, with no distinctive favorite. I’ll side with #4 CASTLE RIDGE (9-2), who drops in class after running decent enough against better, and should trip out nicely just off the speed. Clearly you have to use #9 PRANK CALL (3-1), who won off by 3 at the level last time and did well to draw outside the other speed as well, as well as #1 FENDER BABY (7-2), who lost to the former last time but might be a Lone F, or at least the speed of the speed.
Pk5 A horses: 4,9,1
You could use several on the second line as well, but I’ll side with two—#6 LADY KIM (10-1) and #3 HIGHLAND LASS (6-1)—as the former might not have liked being down inside against ‘Call and ‘Baby last time but has two big figures showing two and three-back, while the wildcard for Farrior but plummets in class off a no-show against eons better, so where his form is at now is a huge guess. Deeper spreads might include #5 Barbsgraylion (10-1), #8 Slewzer (10-1), and #7 My T Talk (8-1), but they appear to be going the wrong way and look behind the quintet I’m using.
Pk5 B horses: 6,3
Leg 3: Santa Anita R2 (4:32 ET) – 3up 20k MCL at 6 furlongs
The second of the spreads comes in a tough 14-pack at the Great Race Place, and I’ll again use three on the top line, with #8 ROYAL RANGER (15-1) preferred, since he has speed, is lightly raced, was just a good 4th at the level, and drops eight pounds (though he figures much lower than this ML). I think #7 KING PARKER (5-1) is the horse to beat, as he improved last time and makes the third start of his form cycle, while #14 BOBS BLUES MAN (12-1) is the class, and though he hasn’t been out since July, he did run well on debut and this drop can’t be overstated.
Pk5 A horses: 8,7,14
There’s a lot going on with #5 LIL SYDNEY (4-1), who hasn’t run since April, or on dirt, and now returns with blinkers-off and as a first-time gelding, so he’s eligible to fire, but he’s also favored on the ML and just doesn’t entice, at least on the A-line. I’d be stubborn to not include #6 GIT ON YOUR PULPIT (6-1), who should be rolling off the far turn and has several races that would win this, but when you’re 12-0-4-3, you’re allowed to wonder “why would today be the day?”
Pk5 B horses: 5,6
Leg 4: Golden Gate Fields R3 (5:20 ET) – 4up 16k at 5 1/2 furlongs
“Pace makes the race” comes to mind here, as there is a ton of speed on the outside, which should set up #3 COLORMEMONEY (5-2) and #1 ARGOSY FLEET (9-2), as they both have a rating gear, and the former goes off the claim for 27% trainer France after just missing against slightly lesser last time, while the latter looked good winning in fast time at the N2L level and should be able to handle the rise.
Pk5 A horses: 3,1
It’s possible #5 MY FRIEND TONY (2-1) takes the pace pressure and holds on, but that’s a lot to ask with speed to both sides of him, so even though he drops in class, let’s make him prove it, at least on top.
Pk5 B horses: 5
Leg 5: Gulfstream Park R9 (5:21 ET) – 4upfm N1X* at 5 furlongs (turf)
Budget players can probably single #7 AWSUM ROAR (5-2), who has the best form to begin with off a dominant win against lesser and now goes off the claim for Dobles, a huge 35% angle, and that’s what I’ll do for all the backup tickets. However, I’m intrigued by #4 MISS AURAMET (7-2), who just wired Florida breds easily after withstanding plenty of pace pressure, and might not have to work as hard early today, so I’ll use her on the top line as well.
Pk5 A horses: 7,4
The November layoff is not ideal for #3 BENTLEY’S DREAM (9-2), as Wilkes is just 4-for-60 off this layoff, but her 2nd at CD last time was sharp and she won’t have to improve much off it, so I’ll use her as a supporting actress here. if you want more coverage you could do worse than #5 Dealer’s Girl (6-1), who gets Irad and is tactical, but she also looks a bit outgunned on paper as well.
Pk5 B horses: 3
Main Ticket: 8,1 with 4,9,1 with 8,7,14 with 3,1 with 7,4 = $72
Leg 1 B Backup: 3 with 4,9,1 with 8,7,14 with 3,1 with 7 = $18
Leg 2 B Backup: 8,1 with 6,3 with 8,7,14 with 3,1 with 7 = $32
Leg 3 B Backup: 8,1 with 4,9,1 with 5,6 with 3,1 with 7 = $24
Leg 4 B Backup: 8,1 with 4,9,1 with 8,7,14 with 5 with 7 = $18
Leg 5 B Backup: 8,1 with 4,9,1 with 8,7,14 with 3,1 with 3 = $36