by Brian Nadeau
March 11, 2020
Back to battle in the Stronach 5, which has been easily surpassing the 100k guarantee, and in some cases doubling it. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 45 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R7 (4:22 ET) – 4upfm AOC (35k/N2X) at 7 furlongs
A tricky opener, as always, especially with a trio coming out of the same 2/23 race that was won by a rousing winner. I’m not completely sold on that heat, so I’ll go a different way with #5 REFLECT (7-2), who rises in class off an easy win last time, and #4 IT’S A JOURNEY (7-2), who does exactly the same. I will use #2 WARM out of the 2/23 race, since she was a troubled 2nd and has been in very sharp overall form.
Pk5 A horses: 5,4,2 (listed in order of preference)
I don’t fully trust #3 THREE HAWK (3-1), who was 3rd on 2/23, but her form has been solid, and it’s not like she’s that far behind anyone on paper, so for backup purposes she’s worth inclusion.
Pk5 B horses: 3
Leg 2: Laurel Park 8 (4:54 ET) – 3yo 25k MCL at 6 furlongs
Nothing’s easy here, as there are several who can win, so I won’t get too cute and use the four I think are the most logical, with Aqu MSW shipper #3 SPITBALL (5-1) on top for Rice, who is a stiff 26% with second-out maidens. Drawing outside the rest of the speed should help #8 CREATED SPECIAL (7-2), and either of his last three would put him on the line with these. Both #6 PALACE CANDY (5-1) and #1 METAL MAGICIAN (3-1) go off the claim for the sharp barns of Magee and Robb, and they both ran well in their last too, so minimal improvement makes them big threats too.
Pk5 A horses: 3,8,6,1
The drop from 40k should help #2 FEATURE ACT (6-1), and his debut 3rd for 16k puts him as a fringe contender here, so off just two lifetime starts, he’s worth a look as well.
Pk5 B horses: 2
Leg 3: Gulfstream Park R9 (5:12 ET) – 4upfm Fl-bred AOC (16k/N1X) at 1-mile (turf)
Though only seven are signed on, there looks to be plenty of speed, which is why the Maker pair of #6 GHOSTLY BEAUTY (2-1) and #1 LOOKINLIKEAQUEEN (5-2) seem above the rest, since both have rating gears, and the former gets the nod off a sharp 2nd at the level over the track/distance last time, though her stablemate goes off the claim and drew well, and was just 2 lengths behind ‘Queen in her last.
Pk5 A horses: 6,1
I’m not suing anyone else, since the pace just looks too hot for them, though if #2 Candy Money (3-1) clears she could get brave, though this is a huge step up off her winning turf debut in cheap MCL company at Tampa.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 4: Golden Gate Fields R3 (5:23 ET) – 3y 12.5k MCL at 5 � furlongs
The two MSW droppers, #5 SYNTHETIC JOE (7-2) and #2 NEVER THINK TWICE (5-2) seem best of a modest bunch, which is how I’ll play it, since this is the biggest drop in racing, both have reason to improve off their last runs, and the rest here just don’t inspire.
Pk5 A horses: 5,2
Underneath is a conundrum, since you could use several, but I’ll keep it to #4 BEER THIRST (9-5), who has worked well enough for this, and goes for 21% debut barn in Yakteen. You could also use #3 Speedy Trip (5-1) and #8 Northern Affair (20-1), but the former hasn’t impressed in the AM for his bow, and the latter was just 63-1, so he looks a bit tough to trust off that “fast” 5th.
Pk5 B horses: 4
Leg 5: Gulfstream Park R10 (5:43 ET) – 3f SOC (25k/N1X) at 1-mile turf
Tough sledding here, as several look the same on paper and possibly the best horse, #10 La Rusia (4-1), is marooned outside after just missing when 2nd in a claiming stakes here last time. There’s also some speed here, so I’ll side with #5 INTEREST (8-1), who runs on the turf for the first time since the Joseph claim and can stalk and get first run, while #3 JOYOUS TIMES (7-2) is 2-for-2 and has Irad off the Serpe claim. I’ll also use #7 LEMON SCAT (8-1), who has to wake up on the class drop, and #2 DAYS OF SPRING (6-1), who flew home last time and goes off the Hurtak claim, a 3-for-10 angle.
Pk5 A horses: 5,3,7,2
I can’t completely toss LA RUSIA, though this wide draw did her no favors, which is why she’s down on the list, not to mention the stakes miss was at 52-1, so she has some proving to do. Don’t sleep on #11 JUST A BIT SASSY (10-1), who drew worst of all, but that turf debut was solid, so she could be a player back on the green after off the turf 2nds on the main.
Pk5 B horses: 10,11
The suggested tickets:
Main Ticket: 5,4,2 with 3,8,6,1 with 6,1 with 5,2 with 5,3,7,2 = $192
Leg 1 B Backup: 3 with 3,8,6,1 with 6,1 with 5,2 with 5,3,7,2 = $64
Leg 2 B Backup: 5,4,2 with 2 with 6,1 with 5,2 with 5,3,7,2 = $48
Leg 4 B Backup: 5,4,2 with 3,8,6,1 with 6,1 with 4 with 5,3,7,2 = $96
Leg 5 B Backup: 5,4,2 with 3,8,6,1 with 6,1 with 5,2 with 10,11 = $96