by Brian Nadeau
April 9, 2020
With the Stronach 5 on hiatus for the time being, let’s alternate between Gulfstream’s late Pk5 and Pk4 on Fridays, as even though the Championship Meet has ended, the racing is still flush with top connections and deep fields.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Race 6 (3:39 ET): 4up SOC (8k-10k) at 5 1/2 furlongs
Clearly #1 TAKE CHARGE DUDE (3-5) is the one to beat on the return to the dirt, but that odds-on ML price seems a bit off (go figure, I know), especially since there is a ton of speed to his outside, so while he’s a must-use on the top line, there’s an upsetter I like. And that’s #6 KILLA DEE (10-1), who has aired twice off the Crichton claim, and while he meets tougher here and probably has to improve a few lengths, his stalking gear, and the fact the favorite could get fried, says he might be able to do it.
Pk5 A horses: 6,1 (listed in order of preference)
I’m not really sure what you’ll get from #4 PHISH FAN (6-1), who didn’t fire in his last at Parx and now invades while going first-time Fawkes (a 10% angle), but the big figure win two-back for Velazquez was huge, and he’s another who should like the pace, so I think he’s usable underneath.
Pk5 B horses: 4
Potential B add ins: #7 Starship Apollo (9-2)
Race 7: 3upfm 12.5k N2L at 1-mile (turf)
Much like the first leg, we have a heavy favorite in #11 GIOIELLI (6-5), who, in my estimation, is the most likely winner, but doesn’t have to either. First off, she’s not exactly a stretch dynamo, as she’s lost ground late in all three of her turf starts, plus she now plummets in class, drew terribly, and meets plenty of other pace too, which is why I’ll use her on the top line, but pick her 2nd. Top honors go to #6 MAGIC RIVER (6-1), who drops slightly, has had some trouble in her last two, and figures to like the pace, and I expect Lopez to put her in the game a bit earlier too, since she’s been left with too much to do of late.
Pk6 A horses: 6,11
I’d use #12 WHISKARITA (9-2) as an A with a better post, since she drops from the 35k ranks and just-missed for 16k two-back, but I can’t use her off this horrific draw, especially since Landeros is a well-publicized 1’fer on the year, but she doesn’t merit inclusion on backups.
Pk5 B horses: 12
Potential B add ins: #2 Get Rewarded (12-1)
Race 8: 3f AOC (75k/N1X) at 1-mile
It looks like we have a potential key race in the making, as a quartet of these gals—#8 FOUR GRACES (3-1), #4 FOUR GRANDS (7-2), #5 FINDING FAME (4-1), and #1 SUPER CUTE (8-1)—not only won at first asking, but did it in a manner that says they are names to remember. I’m not going to try and separate them, but the fact ‘Grands won from the rail with a big figure on debut for Wilkes, who never cranks them, says she might be something, as could ‘Grands, who aired at a short price for Romans, another barn that is very patient with it’s firsters. ‘Fame settled and punched like a good thing for Shug, while ‘Graces invades from Tampa for a hot Clement barn, and don’t overlook the fact she won at two turns on debut, which is no small task.
Pk5 A horses: 8,4,5,1
No one else looks to be in the league of the top-4, let alone have the upside they do, so I’ll go it alone on the top line and sit back and watch a race that could have a lot of fireworks.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add ins: #7 Good Credence (6-1)
Race 9: 3up 20k N2L at 1 1/16 miles (turf)
It looks like #7 SMELL OF ROSES (9-2) has a tactical edge and could be a Lone F here, so I’m hoping she breaks running and forgets to stop after speeding off early and only slightly weakening late for 25k. I won’t argue with anyone who thinks #3 POSITIVE PHIL (5-2) is the gal to beat, but note she was only a half-length clear when 3rd over ‘Roses last time, and that miss might not have to work as hard to make the point today, so that gap could easily close. If you toss out the run two-back, then #5 YOUSHOULDBESOLUCKY (7-2) shows three recent big figure runs, and that was a fine 2nd for 16k last time, so while she could be at the mercy of the pace a bit, she’s a big threat to run the top pair down regardless.
Pk5 A horses: 7,3,5
Sometimes lifetime maidens win right back after they finally break through, so don’t ignore #8 DILLON ROCKS (6-1), who wired (through slow splits) with a solid figure last time off the Cibelli claim and might be able to double up against a solid, but unspectacular group.
Pk6 B horses: 8
Potential B add ins: #2 Sir Hoski (6-1), #1 Direct Approach (8-1)
Race 10: 3up MSW at 5 furlongs (turf)
The finale is the third race of the sequence that will have a heavy favorite, though this time #11 R MAN JOE (9-5) gets top billing after running 2nd, beaten a neck, in the Texas Glitter, especially since this outside attack post will be perfect for his speedy style. However, #6 CARRIBEAN GOLD (8-1), who figures more like 3-1, has a big chance off the fast figure 4th going two turns against Florida breds on debut, so I’m going to use both equally.
Pk5 A horses: 11,6
If the pace gets too hot then #10 ON THE MUSCLE (6-1) has a chance to run down the top pair, especially since he’s second-off a bit of trouble in his FG return last time, and would be a player here off that 2nd there two-back.
Pk6 B horses: 10
Potential B add ins: #2 Muskoka Storm (12-1), #9 Shared Legacy, #3 Irked (10-1), and #8 Sail At Sunrise
Main Ticket: 6,1 with 6,11 with 8,4,5,1 with 7,3,5 with 11,6 = $48
Race 6 B Backup: 4 with 6,11 with 8,4,5,1 with 7,3,5 with 11,6 = $24
Race 7 B Backup: 6,1 with 12 with 8,4,5,1 with 7,3,5 with 11,6 = $24
Race 9 B Backup: 6,1 with 6,11 with 8,4,5,1 with 8 with 11,6 = $16
Race 10 B Backup: 6,1 with 6,11 with 8,4,5,1 with 7,3,5 with 10 = $24