by Jeff Siegel
April 9, 2020
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Magical Mike; 3-Jack Beanstalk; 4-Traffic Trouble
Forecast: The new week begins with a bottom-rung maiden claiming turf miler that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Jack Beanstalk stretches out and switches to grass again (he’s bred for both) after showing some improvement sprinting on dirt in his last couple of outings. The N. Casse-trained gelding was almost nine lengths clear of the rest when keeping to his task to finish a willing runner-up last time out and if he can duplicate that form under these conditions the son of Jack Milton certainly can win, especially if he inherits the role as the controlling speed. With L. Saez riding him back and at 6-1 on the morning line, there may be some value to be found. Magical Mike is a S. Joseph, Jr.-trained huge class dropper from the straight maiden ranks removing blinkers after one unsuccessful try wearing them, draws the good rail, and switches to one of the barn’s recent go-to riders, V. Lebron. Based on his “buried” recent speed figures the lightly-raced son of Magician is a strong fit at this level – and we have to include him - but at 2-1 on the morning line there’s not much value to be found. Traffic Trouble is another with speed figures that make him a contender despite his failure to hit the board in his first six career starts. The Cross Traffic gelding drops to his lowest level ever in his second off the claim for good trainer M. Pino and may be most effective if taken back and allowed to produce one late run.
RACE 2: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: C
Use: 1-Red Flag; 2-She Love Me; 7-Dizzy Sight
Forecast: The second race is a main track one-turn miler for restricted (nw-2) $6,250 older horses, the cheapest race carded on this circuit. How does the handicapper deal with Dizzy Sight? The once-promising Twirling Candy gelding, away since January fourth and plummeting from first-level allowance competition, clearly is being culled from the stable but certainly can beat this field if he has one decent race left in him. A maiden special weight winner at Keeneland last fall with a fairly decent speed figure, the G. Weaver-trained four year old recorded a bullet workout in mid-March and in fact shows a healthy tab for the past six weeks. At 2-1 we’re guessing on his current condition and rolling exotic players must decide whether to single the best horse or spread trying to beat him. Red Flag also is tackling much easier but in his case the class drop is far less suspicious. He’s just 1-for-21 during his career and has been unplaced in 11 of his last 12 starts, so this is where he belongs, and a repeat of his third place finish three runs back over this track and distance actually charts pretty well here. She Love Me, a distant second vs. tougher in early February, wound up seven lengths clear of the others including a next-out winner and may be the most dangerous of the deep closing types. With the switch to L. Saez, the son of Flag Out seems likely to fire his best shot.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 ET. Grade:
Use: 1-Farm Strong; 4-Mayito; 8-Clifton Park
Forecast: Farm Strong represents a gamble in the third race, a maiden claiming $16,000 grass miler restricted to 3-year-olds. The son of Wicked Strong is assured a good ground-saving trip from the rail while dropping to his lowest level ever, and a repeat of his last race, a better-than-looked third place finish vs. maiden $25,000 foes in mid-February, might be good enough to beat this group. In that race, he settled off a hot early pace, moved prematurely wide to enter contention midway, then stayed on nicely through the lane to be beaten two lengths while earning a speed figures that puts him right there against this group. Hopefully, he’ll get a patient ride this time and at 6-1 on the morning line the G. Arnold-trained colt has a chance to register a mild surprise. For protection in rolling exotic play, two others are worth consideration. Mayito finished third as the choice in a similar event last month in his first outing since joining the S. Joseph, Jr. barn. Having finished in the frame in three of his four career starts, the son of Declaration of War has established himself as fairly dependable with a bit of improvement possible for his high percentage connections. Clifton Park, making his fourth consecutive class drop while seeking to establish his competitive level, has numbers that fit even though he’s been unplaced in all five career outings. L. Saez stays aboard and will have him doing his best work from the quarter pole home.
RACE 4: Post 2:31 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Dancing Destroyer; 5-Richies Great Girl; 7-Reiterate
Forecast: Sophomore fillies entered to be claimed for $30,000 compete over five and one-half furlongs in the fourth race. Dancing Destroyer switches to L. Saez and may be quick enough to establish the pace. She drops to her lowest level ever, has numbers that fit, and shows two easy breezes since raced to have her on edge. A repeat of her state-bred maiden win three runs back over this track could be good enough and at 7/2 on the morning line she may offer value in the win pool. Richies Great Girlshortens from a mile and returns to the main track, conditions that probably suit her best, and a repeat of an allowance win sprinting on dirt at Tampa Bay Downs four runs back would likely be good enough to win. However, she’s been unplaced in three subsequent outings and her numbers have dropped, so there’s some uncertainty surrounding her current condition. You have to include her, though. Reiterate was six lengths clear of the rest when second under slightly softer conditions here last month and given her cozy outside draw the daughter of Competitive Edge should run at least as well today. She switches to T. Gafflione and will have every chance from a pace-stalking position.
RACE 5: Post 3:03 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Ratify; 7-Dr. Doyle
Forecast: We’ll try to survive and advance using just two horses in the fifth race, a maiden $40,000 grass grab bag restricted to 3-year-olds. The race presents many question marks, so we suggest you tread lightly. Ratify ran very well when second in a maiden $50,000 affair in late-February and was promptly claimed in what appeared at the time to be a shrewd purchase. The lightly-raced son of Constitution earned a decent speed figure in what was just his second career start and had the form franked when third place finisher Lets Play Hardball returned to win nicely. However, the sophomore gelding failed to make the entries during the month of March and today returns unprotected for $40,000, not exactly a ringing of endorsement of the stable’s confidence. Still, with J. Rosario taking the call and based strictly on form, the E. Plesa, Jr.-trained gelding rates top billing. Dr. Doyle, a solid third in a maiden $50,000 affair last time out while earning a speed figure that makes him a major player in this spot, switches to L. Saez. The J. Cibelli-trained son of Commissioner appears most comfortable when held up early and allowed to run late and given that type of ride should be the one to fear most.
RACE 6: Post 3:34 ET. Grade: B+
Forecast: Let’s take a stand and single the class-dropping Unprecedented in this challenging maiden $32,000 claiming six furlong sprint. The son of Bayern shows up in a seller for the first time in a class drop that is warranted based on form, and against this group we’re expecting the J. Kimmel-trained 3-year-old to improve significantly after flashing good speed but then weakening when facing infinitely tougher straight maiden foes in a hot race last month. The son of Bayern has the kind of early speed that should be able to set him apart from the others during the early stages of this sprint, and as a first-time gelding switching to J. Rosario we’ll gamble that he can remain in control all the way to the wire. At 8-1 on the morning line he’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 7: Post 4:05 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Money Ride; 4-Dominate Themoment
Forecast: Dominate Themoment just won with complete authority while earning a career-top speed figure in a similar starter optional claimer over this course and distance last month and seems more than capable doing the same today. With J. Rosario riding him back, the son of Street Boss projects to enjoy another ideal second flight, stalking trip and then have every chance when the pressure is turned on at the head of the lane. There’s value here at 5/2 on the morning line if you can get it. Money Ride represents stranger-danger and is worth including as a back-up or a saver. If the son of Candy Ride can clear Flash Pass to the clubhouse turn and establish the pace, he could get brave after displaying good speed and solid form in his recent dirt sprints when facing tougher competition recently in New York. The M. Lerman-trained colt is unproven two-turning but he did hit the board sprinting over the local lawn last summer so the surface switch shouldn’t be an issue.
RACE 8: Post 4:36 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Crupi’s Pizza Dom; 5-Volubile; 7-Preacher Marsee
Forecast: This restricted (nw-2) $12,500 turf miler looks challenging but may be worth playing if the price is right. Crupi’s Pizza Dom is a first-off-the-claim play from a dangerous outfit dropping a notch on the class ladder, drawing nice inside post, switching to E. Jaramillio, and showing a recent bullet half mile workout. The son of Artie Schiller has back numbers that put him right there and while he’d be especially dangerous as the controlling speed, he did break his maiden as a stalker, so that option is there. There may be a bit of value to be found at or near his morning line of 9/2. Volubile once was more than good enough to win a race this soft, but his current condition is suspect. Claimed last fall for $50,000, the son of More Than Ready has gone south since, most recently finishing last of 10 in a $25,000 nw-2 affair over this course and distance in late February. Yes, he was blocked and lost his momentum when trying to rally into the stretch in that race, but it’s hard to know for sure just how much run he had left at the time. The jockey switch today to T. Gafflione is a positive, for sure, and on pure numbers the R. Hess, Jr.-trained gelding can win if he can regain his confidence in a modest affair. Preacher Marsee, a nice maiden winner over the local lawn in late December and in the frame in his last pair, has numbers that are gradually rising and has a look with another forward move. The son of Bernardini comes from a low percentage stable but switches to L. Saez and should be running on late.
RACE 9: Post 5:07 ET. Grade:
Use: 2-Youngest of Five; 4-Moretti
Forecast: Youngest of Five has two sharp races under his belt and today tries two-turns for the first time while tackling tougher after a nice recent maiden score over mile. Though he loses L. Saez (who opts for the T. Pletcher-trained Moretti), the son of Super Saver picks up J. Rosario, lands a cozy inside two-hole post, and may find himself on or near the lead throughout after pressing hot fractions and then coming away in his most recent outing. The S. Hough-trained gelding doesn’t really match up well with Moretti on the speed figure scale, but the thinking is he’ll step forward with added experience and distance. Moretti is the likely strong favorite and one to beat for various reasons. Though he failed without an excuse at 3/5 in an entry-level router at Laurel in his most recent appearance in February, the son of Medaglia d’Oro is plenty fast on numbers, will add blinkers for the first time, and should show his best stuff after recently arriving from New York, where racing has been shut down. Youngest of Five will be the better price so we’ll put him on top but both should be included in rolling exotic play.
RACE 10: Post 5:38 ET. Grade: B+
Forecast: Valletta has the makings of a very nice prospect and we’re expecting her to show that potential in today’s finale, a maiden turf miler for 3-year-old fillies. With two races behind her and a series of very impressive recent workouts, the daughter of Into Mischief seems primed for a significant forward move after finishing a close third over this course and distance last month. In that race, the W. Mott-trained filly was under stout restraint much of the way pressing the pace, then tried to quicken when turned loose but was worn down close home. Hopefully, with the switch to L. Saez, she’ll be allowed to display her natural speed and then be able to dominate on the front end or from a good stalking spot. At 5/2 on the morning line we’ll make her a strong win play and rolling exotic single.