by Brian Nadeau
April 16, 2020
With the Stronach 5 on hiatus for the time being, let’s alternate between Gulfstream’s late Pk5 and Pk4 on Friday’s, as even though the Championship Meet has ended, the racing is still flush with top connections and deep fields.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Race 7 (4:15 ET): 3up 20k N2L at 5 furlongs (turf)
The opening leg looks like it’s supposed to be won by one of the four favorites—#2 ONE WILD FOREVER (4-1), #6 SOUPER SHENANIGAN (7-2), #11 SOVEREIGN WARRION, and #12 OHANZEE (6-1)—but which one is the problem. I’ll use all of them while noting that the latter drew well for his pressing style and, while he faces winners today, could be ready to go on a bit of a roll after breaking through last time. ‘Warrior has been coming out of fast races for the level (for these) and as a big chance from a bit off the pace, while ‘Forever needs to work out a trip from down inside, and ‘Shenanigan is the wildcard off the WO layoff, but his two turf races to start his career where solid.
Pk4 A horses: 12,11,2,6 (listed in order of preference)
The wild card is #3 RESERVENOTATTAINED (6-1), who hasn’t been out in almost two years, but he returns as a first-time gelding for an underrated Yates barn, and has worked well for this, plus he showed some talent, when last seen, albeit on the dirt.
Pk4 B horses: 3
Potential B add ins: #8 Fentynola (20-1)
Race 8: 3yof AOC (50k/N1X) at 5 furlongs (turf)
I’ll go a bit against the grain here and side with the Tampa shipper #3 POSEIDON’S PASSION (8-1), who got to the turf last time and really improved, while winning with a solid figure and a stalking gear, plus that came off a four-month layoff, so she may move forward again. I’m treading lightly but using both #11 NOTORIOUS R B G (3-1), a debut winner for Clement, and #4 JADES GELLY (5-2) a Ward re-claim for just beat MCL’ers for Joseph, since both will be facing winners at underlaid prices.
Pk4 A horses: 3,11,4
Don’t sleep on #8 MRS. MAISEL (10-1), who was facing stakes foes last time and is just a notch below the best here on paper, which means if the pace falls apart, or she moves forward a bit, she can surprise. I’m against #5 SHIPPY (7-2) on top, even though she is the class off her 2yo graded dirt form, since she hasn’t been out since September, has never run on turf, and starts for Weaver, who is white hot this year, but is a combined 3-for-70 when you add up his first-time with trainer (0-for-14), first-time turf (2-for-31), and 180+-day layoff (1-for-25).
Pk4 B horses: 8,5
Potential B add ins: #2 Envied (6-1)
Race 9: 4up AOC (62.5k/N2X) at 6 furlongs
Clearly this race comes down to what you think of the undefeated #6 FORTIN HILL (9-5), who figures odds-on for Brown but hasn’t been out since June and could need this. Budget players will single him, and rightfully so as his best is simply better than these, but he could need this and obviously there are issues attached too, so I’ll use another. And that brings me to #2 YODEL E. A. WHO (7-2), who has been in good form in his last two for Joseph and should have plenty of foundation off the cutback from a pair of 1-mile runs, and owns plenty of tactical speed should the pace be a bit to hot for the comebacking favorite.
Pk4 A horses: 6,2
Fortin Hill may well be 3-5, and Brown figures to have him ready, so there will be no backups since I’m Dutching the top line with ‘Who.
Pk4 B horses: NONE
Potential B add ins: #7 Moonoverseba (8-1), #9 Benefactor (6-1)
Race 10: 3yo 65k MCL at 1 1/16 miles (turf)
Tough sledding here, as nine of the 11 experienced runners have never been in for a tag and therefore take the biggest drop in all of racing. It’s a deep spread for me with seven on the top line, as most of these either look the same on paper, or the longer prices are within a few lengths of the favorites, and therefore are worth inclusion on the top line. So, without further adieu, I’ll go with #3 COWTOWN (5-1), #7 CHOCOLATE BAR (8-1), #6 RECONVENE (12-1, #12 MAGIC STREET (7-2), and #11 ALPHA DOG (6-1), and, #10 MAVERICK KITTEN (4-1). The top pick is a stab, but Pletcher is 33% on the MSW drop, and while he hasn’t tried turf before, he exits some good dirt races, drew well, and has plenty of tactical speed too.
Pk4 A horses: 3,7,6,12,11,10
*** Please note to keep the backup tickets down, I’ll use only 3,7,6,12 ***
I’ll use a trio underneath too, since this is a tough race that I have no strong opinion on, and #1 KING OF ROCK (12-1) drops, drew well and starts for a sharp Gargan barn, while #9 EAGLES PRINCE (15-1) was in a pair of good Spa dirt races when last seen for Mott, and #5 BOURBON WISDOM (12-1) is a poorer version of Cowtown and adds blinkers.
Pk4 B horses: 1,9,5
Potential B add ins: #2 Sir Hoski (6-1), #1 Direct Approach (8-1)
Main Ticket: 11,12,2,6 with 3,11,4 with 6,2 with 3,7,6,12,11,10 = $72
Race 7 B Backup: 3 with 3,11,4 with 6,2 with 3,7,6,12 = $12
Race 8 B Backup: 11,12,2,6 with 8,5 with 6,2 with 3,7,6,12 = $32
Race 9 B Backup: 11,12,2,6 with 3,11,4 with 6,2 with 3,7,6,12 = $48
Race 10 B Backup: 11,12,2,6 with 3,11,4 with 6,2 with 1,9,5 = $36