by Brian Nadeau
May 7, 2020
Big doings at Gulfstream Park this Saturday, with a mandatory Rainbow 6 payoff on-tap, where an estimated pool of $6 million is anticipated. With that being said, let’s take a look at the sequence and hash out some suggested tickets.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter, @Brian_J_Nadeau. ***
Race 7 (3:19 ET): 3f ALW at 5 furlongs (turf)
The opening leg of the sequence has a bit of everything, as there’s some speed, some stalkers, and some closers, so it looks like a fair fight on paper, and I’ll side with #10 COMPENSATE, who got back to the turf last time and was a sharp 2nd with a big figure (for this group), and her stalking style will get her first run too. The speed of #5 FOOLISH HUMOR and #3 FAST SCENE must be respected, and they are only going 5Fs too, but I still wonder if it cancels each other out, though both have solid form and still need to be used on the top line. Lastly, I’ll go with #9 ENVIED, who may need a collapse, but closed nicely to be 3rd last time and now goes second-off the layoff, so she should be tighter too.
Pk4 A horses: 10,9,5,3 (listed in order of preference)
An October layoff, facing winners, and trying turf might be too much for #1 AMERICAN TAP, but she sure looked good when last seen winning on the Tapeta at Woodbine, so she won’t have to freak to be able to play with this group for newly minted Hall of Fame trainer Casse. I have to think a sharp 5Fs off an October layoff will be a bit much for Euro invader #2 AFFICIONADO, but she had some solid form across the pond, and now add Lasix, and Biancone does good work with these types, so she needs to be used as at least a supporting actress.
Pk4 B horses: 1,2
Potential B add ins: NONE
Race 8: 3up N2L at 6 furlongs
It’s never a bad thing to have a single in an expansive sequence and we have one here in #5 LOUIE’S KINGDOM, who goes off the re-claim for Rivelli (43% at the claim box), lures Irad, and was a very fast 4th (for this group) against much better when last seen on the dirt. Couple all that with an extremely meek group of opposition, and things look very promising.
Pk4 A horses: 5
We’ll have to get creative to use our three backups, as a conventional play would be too expensive, so take note below of the “super A’s” that I’ll be using. With that being said, the drop in class for #7 ASSERTIKO and #2 HARPER GO LUCKY should help to wake both up, while the speed of #3 CAT GONE QUICK might have him as a Lone F, while the good form and figures of #4 WAR ACT give him a puncher’s chance as well.
Pk4 B horses: 7,2,3,4
*** Super A’s for use with the R8 B backups ***
Potential B add ins: NONE
Race 9: 4up The Sunshine Forever at 1 1/16 miles (turf)
This race looks like it goes through the Pletcher pair of #6 HALLADAY and #9 SOCIAL PARANOIA, and while I like the former and his tactical speed and good post better than the latter, I won’t try to split them and will use them both equally. I’ll also use #11 ADMISSION OFFICE, who enters off a big figure 2nd in a local GII and hasn’t been in this light on the class scale in ages, though I worry about his lack of early speed.
Pk4 A horses: 6,9,11
There’s no doubt #7 HAWKISH is as talented as anyone here, but an October layoff, off what was a real dud too, says something might have been amiss, so I’ll take more of a wait and see approach today and only use him as a backup.
Pk4 B horses: 7
Potential B add ins: #4 Aquaphobia, #3 El Tormenta
Race 10: 4up AOC (25k/N1X) at 1-mile (turf)
An inside post, going second-off the layoff, and a much-improved return says #1 COUNTER OFFER is poised for a huge run today, so he gets the upset call in what could be a separator kind of race. The speed and breakthrough MSW win that #8 GRAY’S FABLE brings to the table says he can handle the class rise, especially since he’s got a ton of upside off just five lifetime starts. Clearly #6 BATTLE OF BLENHEIM is a major player, but I would be careful leaning too heavily on him, since he basically runs the same race every time and has no reason to improve today, though that still might be good enough here. The post can’t be worse for #11 SHOOTIN THE BREEZE, but his return behind potential superstar Golden Tapit was strong, and he won’t have to move forward all the much to win this, so I’ll use him, albeit a bit begrudgingly.
Pk4 A horses: 1,8,6,11
The wildcard is #5 HARBOUR MASTER, who hasn’t run since a fast 5th in a Del Mar AOC in November or Cassidy and is now with Biancone, but that run makes you take notice, and he’s tactical too, so if he’s ready he’s got a chance against this kind.
Pk4 B horses: 5
Potential B add ins: #9 Honey Won’t
Race 11: 3up Florida-bred AOC (16k/N1X) at 6 furlongs
A potential suicidal speed duel between #4 I’LL FIGHT DEMPSEY and #11 Whiskey Sunrise, and maybe #7 Hauntedbythemusic and #10 More Than Striking, could set this up for an off-the-pace type to come along and pick up the pieces. Which makes #3 TAP IT TO WIN my top pick, since finally gets back to sprinting, has been tearing it up in the morning for his first start since October, should settle just off the speed, and is another who has never been in with restricted company before. I think you have to use ‘Dempsey, since he’s never run against state breds and might simply be too fast for these on the class drop and cutback, but yikes, he’ll have to earn it here, at an underlaid price too.
Pk4 A horses: 3,4
It looks like #5 R MERCEDES BOY got back untracked last time, and he’s got a stalking gear too, so if he can maintain that form, or move forward second-off the layoff, he’s going to have a big say in the lane if things melt down.
Pk4 B horses: 5
Potential B add ins: #11 Whiskey Sunrise, #8 Cryogenic
Race 12: 3up SOC (10k/8k) at 1-mile
They don’t make it easy, do they? The finale is as much about who can’t win as it is who can, since there’s only a few throwouts, while the rest are seemingly within a length or two of each other on paper. I’ve been relatively condensed leading up to this point, which was by design, since I think this is the definition of a spread race, and I want to be as deep as I want to be. With that being said, the final number rests at eight; #6 THE QUEEN JULES, #3 PEPPI THE HUNTER, #9 DEXTER ROAD, #4 AREYOUTALKINGTOME, #2 TRAPPEZOID, #10 STARSHIP APOLLO, #8 DISCREET HEAT, and #1 THE ROBERT. Getting back to the turf and luring Irad makes ‘Jules appealing, as he aired the last time on the main, and while ‘Hunter is clearly the horse to beat, I just have to think regression is coming since he’s off the claim from Joseph and Calabrese and now with 0-for-1 trainer Morici.
Pk4 A horses: 6,3,9,4,2,10,8,1
There won’t be any backups, since I’ve used anyone I think can win on the A-line, and therefore the rest are a decided cut below.
Pk4 B horses: NONE
Potential B add ins: #5 Il Faraone
The suggested tickets:
Main Ticket: 10,9,5,3 with 5 with 6,9,11 with 1,8,6,11 with 3,4 with 6,3,9,4,2,10,8,1 = $153.60
Race 7 B Backup: 1,2 with 5 with 6,9,11 with 1,8,6,11 with 3,4 with 6,3,9,4,2,10,8,1 = $76.80
Race 8 B Backup: 10,9,5,3 with 7,2,3,4 with 6,9,11 with 1,8,6 with 3 with 6,3 = $57.60
Race 9 B Backup: 10,9,5,3 with 5 with 7 with 1,8,6,11 with 3,4 with 6,3,9,4,2,10,8,1 = $51.20
Race 10 B Backup: 10,9,5,3 with 5 with 6,9,11 with 5 with 3,4 with 6,3,9,4,2,10,8,1 = $38.40
Race 11 B Backup: 10,9,5,3 with 5 with 6,9,11 with 1,8,6,11 with 5 with 6,3,9,4,2,10,8,1 = $76.80