by Jeff Siegel
May 10, 2020
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 9-Bella Gianna; 12-Generic Mark
Forecast: As this is written, consistent rain is predicted throughout the afternoon in South Florida. We’re going to handicap the Mother's Day card under the assumption that there will be no turf racing and that the main-track-only runners will draw in. It’s possible that the rain will arrive late enough to allow the Sunday first race (at least) to remain on grass and we suggest you disregard our selections and analysis for this race if this turns out to be the case. In the opener, originally scheduled for a mile on grass, Bella Gianna seems likely to be the controlling speed; it’s just a matter of how far she can stay in front speed stretching out after a series of sprints. If she’s going to get the trip, it’ll be in her first time trying in. Generic Mark, purchased as a yearling for $150,000, had a couple of runs in maiden special weight races last year while earning speed figures that are much stronger than par for a bottom-rung maiden claimer such as this. The pattern is more than worrisome, as she is being tossed away on the cheap while returning off a 10-month layoff with a light, uninspiring work tab. Also, she displayed no early speed in her two outings, but at least she’s bred to like an off track. Assuming this race switches to a main track one-turn miler, these are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play.
RACE 2: Post 1:34 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Apache; 3-Three Deep
Forecast: Apache nosedives in class to the maiden $25,000 level after finishing fourth for $50,000 last time out in what was just her second start. This easier spot coupled with the stretch-out to a mile should produce a significant forward move, and her pedigree suggests she’ll like a wet track as well. Also, she makes a significant jockey switch to L. Saez, so with a clean break from the rail, the K. O’Connell-trained daughter of Khozan should have every chance to handle this modest task while on or near the lead throughout. On pure form Three Deep is strictly the one to beat but makes a significant negative jockey change (at this stage of his career, bug boy M. Fuentes appears lacking in strength and skill). We’ll use the son of Fort Larned on a back-up ticket or two but upgrade his chances should a late jockey change (not really expected) be announced.
RACE 3: Post 2:07 ET. Grade: B-
Single: 5-Sugar Bolt
Forecast: This race originally was carded on grass. We’re handicapping this five furlong sprint under the assumption that it will be transferred to the main track. Sugar Bolt shows up in a seller for the first time and has the kind of early zip to be long gone at this level and at this shortened sprint trip, assuming she’s healthy. The spotty race pattern (off from September to December and now returning off a five-month layoff) doesn’t inspire confidence but she’s reunited with “win rider” E. Jaramillo and the work tab looks good enough. We’ll make her a somewhat shaky rolling exotic single in a race that should be treated with caution.
RACE 4: Post 2:39 ET. Grade: B
Single: 11-More Than Unusual
Forecast: This race was originally scheduled for a mile on grass. We’re handicapping the race under the assumption that it will be transferred to the main track. More Than Usual drops to the bottom, stretches out to a distance he should like, has a terrific off track pedigree and has high percentage connections. He also has numbers that are better than par for this level. That said, we have no idea if he will remain in the race should it come off the turf.
RACE 5: Post 3:11 ET. Grade: B
Use: 8-I’m That Bird; 9-Flamma Mamma
Forecast: Flamma Mamma drops to the bottom level, lands a cozy outside post, gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy J. Trejos and should have no difficulty coping with the anticipated wet track. She needs to get loose on the lead to have her best chance and the projected race flow suggests he’ll have a chance to do just that. I’m That Bird drops in class, turns back in trip, switches to the main track and has the pedigree to move up on a wet track. She’s never raced on conventional dirt (or an off-track) but her maiden win over the synthetic at Arlington Park charts very strongly here.
RACE 6: Post 3:43 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Carolyn’s Smile; 3-Sweden
Forecast: Carolyn’s Smile moves up from a maiden claimer but on pure numbers she’s the fastest filly in this maiden-special-weight race restricted to Florida-bred fillies and mares. Beaten a neck while almost seven lengths clear of the rest last time out, the daughter of Khozan shouldn’t have a problem with wet surface. Sweden ran very well over this course and distance two runs back when finishing third in a fast, highly-rated race. She faltered going two turns in her next outing but shortens up and makes a significant jockey switch to E. Zayas. Having been produced by a daughter of Unbridled’s Song gives hope that can move up considerably on a wet track.
RACE 7: Post 4:15 ET. Grade: B
Use: 10-Trev; 13-Take Charge Dude
Forecast: As of this writing we’re operating under the assumption that this race will be taken off the turf. If it remains on grass, disregarded the analysis. Main-track only Trev is a mud-freak and a winner of his last four, two of which were off-the-turf races over this main track and distance. Lucky for him the rains are predicted to come at the right time. However, he’ll have to deal with the equally fast Take Charge Dude, himself a three-time wet track winner and expected to draw into the race as a main-track only entrant. Trev is the quicker of the two so we’ll put him on top while including both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 8: Post 4:46 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Yodel E. A. Who; 6-Fortune Cookie; 7-Champagneonme;
Forecast: Yodel E. A. Who returns to his claim level and can regain his best form over an anticipated wet track he should have no difficulty handling. The Creative Cause gelding has a good stalking style and projects to be in the fray throughout. Fortune Cookie failed to threaten as the favorite vs. similar last time out but is more effective at this seven furlong distance and seems capable of bouncing back. He switches to I. Ortiz, Jr., and will be running on late. Champagneoneme just won a similar affair in late March and if he can turn in two alike he’ll be a threat from behind.
RACE 9: Post 5:17 ET. Grade: X
Single: 2-Frosted Grace
Forecast:. Frosted Grace is strong on numbers and the logical top pick. How we’ll do on an anticipated sloppy track is anybody’s guess and at 7/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower he won’t be offer a whole lot of wagering value, so you can use him as a no-value rolling exotic single or just pass the race.
RACE 10: Post 5:47 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-South Sea; 11-Front Loaded
Forecast: Front Loaded makes a favorable rider switch and moves to the outside in this $35,000 (nw-3) restricted claimer. A six-time winner over the local main track and twice successful on a wet surface, the Kantharos gelding should settle in mid-pack and kick home when it counts. South Sea, first off the claim for a barn that hits at a sensational 39% with this angle, has failed in five previous starts over an off track but has plenty of back numbers good enough to win and should produce a forward move in his first outing for S. Joseph, Jr.