by Brian Nadeau
May 13, 2020
As if Thursday’s return to racing at Golden Gate Fields wasn’t news enough, the fact they are having a mandatory Pk6 payoff with a 399k carryover waiting to greet handicappers puts a nice bow on the proceedings. So, let’s have a look at the sequence and some suggested tickets. Last week we had five a’s and one B at Gulfstream but couldn’t line things up for the 30k payoff, so here’s hoping we’re a bit more fortunate this week, with a pool that could easily reach $5 million or more. I’ll continue the trend of spending a bit more on the tickets, since such a big pool is looming, while also suggesting a budget ticket as well.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Race 4 (5:12 ET): 3upfm 4k N2L at 5 � furlongs
The opener of a sequence that could have a huge pool seems to have enough speed to potentially set this up for a stalker/closer, so I’m looking at #5 WAVERLY WAY (7-2) on the cutback, especially since she’s been rallying stoutly into slow-paced routes. The stiff drop in class makes #2 LYDIA O LYDIA )5-2) the obvious gal to beat, especially since she drops stiffly in class after being thrown to the wolves for 12.5k while facing winners last time. I’m also going to use #6 TOOLEY TUNES (20-1), who also cuts back, makes her third start off a long break, and has improving form, plus she’ll be a big price, and should like the race flow as well.
Pk6 A horses: 5,2,6 (listed in order of preference)
If #1 SARAH’S SMIRK (4-1) clears, like she did in her easy MCL score last time, she may forget to stop, but it’s tough to envision that happening here, which relegates her to a supporting actress. The hot pace won’t help #3 REAL KEEPE (3-1), nor will a June layoff, but she is outside some of the speed, and her local runs, albeit with Hess, are sharp, though current Delia is 0-for-11 with his newcomers, so tread lightly here.
Pk6 B horses: 1,3
Potential B add ins: NONE
Race 5: 3up 20k MCL at 1/16 miles (turf)
I’m not going to try and get too cute here, so I’ll just use the three California invaders—#8 STRUGAR (2-1), #4 CAPE POINT (9-5), and #7 CONSTITUTIONALAFFAIR (3-1)—who have the class, and call it a day, as one of the three should get it done, over a field that is weak, and have had their chances. As for the order, the MSW drop from a pair of SA dirt races is a big one, so Strugar gets top billing, while ‘Point has the turf form and might be loose on the stretchout, and ‘Affair won’t be too far off things early.
Pk6 A horses: 8,4,7
The top trio seem a cut above, and I don’t think using anyone else warrants the extra money, so I’ll leave it on the top line and be OK should someone else surprise, especially since the next best, #5 El Borracho (6-1), is 0-for-12 with no upside.
Pk6 B horses: NONE
Potential B add ins: #5 El Borracho (4-1), #6 Gold N Grand (10-1)
Race 6: 3upfm 8k N2L at 5 � furlongs
There’s no doubt the one to catch and beat is #4 DIAMONDSNCHAMPAGNE (5-2), a seven-time winner who might be loose, but her penchant for losing ground late is a worry, so I have her second-best here. My top pick is #2 JENPIRESTRIKESBACK (7-2), who has the tactical speed to keep the chalk close enough early, drops in class, and has a ton of upside off just four lifetime starts.
Pk6 A horses: 4,2
I admittedly don’t know what to make of the comebacking turf runner #3 RIDE OUT THE STORM (9-2), but Wright is aces in these parts, the drop in class shouldn’t hurt, and she should have some pace to rally into, so I’m definitely intrigued, though if she runs 7th I wouldn’t be shocked either.
Pk6 B horses: 3
Potential B add ins: #7 Miss Lucky Lager (6-1), #1 Felony One (4-1)
Race 7: 3upfm 12.5k N2L at 1 1/16 miles(turf)
In a race with seemingly plenty of speed, I’ll try to blow it up a bit with #5 AMERICAN ROYALTY (12-1), who has bee running on the Tapeta but has some solid back turf form, and, as important as anything, has a stalking style that should appreciate the expected race flow. The much more likely winner is #2 ODESSA (5-2), who goes for a potent Wong barn, should be able to sit just off the speed, and probably wins this if she can run back to the close 5th at the level here two-back in January. Returning to the turf and stretching back out might help #4 MOONSHINE ANNIE (3-1) wake back up, and her three most recent turf races would put a scare in these, though you’re also allowed to wonder what went wrong in her last two.
Pk6 A horses: 5,2,4
I like the class drop that #7 SAY IT WITH ROSES (9-2) takes, and drawing outside some of the other speed helps too, but she’s been just awful in her three starts against winners, so I think she may be off-form, which is why she’s tough to trust, and thus down below.
Pk6 B horses: 7
Potential B add ins: NONE
Race 8: 3f 12.5k MCL at 6 furlongs
No real opinion here, other than I like the price and upside of #7 BREAKFAST BAIL (6-1) off an encouraging debut, so I’ll side with her the must-use group of #5 WHY THE LONG FACE (4-1), #3 BEAUTIFUL BABE (6-1), and #2 STAND IN YOUR LOVE (3-1).
Pk6 A horses: 7,5,3,2
If #6 SPIRIT LAKE (12-1) runs back to her debut, when she was 2nd by a neck, she has a chance here, and maybe stretching back out half a furlong will help, so she’s worth inclusion underneath at a nice number. The drop from the Cal-bred MSW ranks should agree with #9 PERFECT MOOD (6-1), who was a close 10th from a bad draw on debut and didn’t run as poorly as it looks.
Pk6 B horses: 6,9
Potential B add ins: #4 Endless Story (12-1), #8 Jazzy Einstein (5-1)
Race 9: 3up 12.5k claimer at 1-mile (turf)
The finale will be a big separator, as you could seemingly make a case for the entire field, and I’m going five-deep in the hopes of catching a price, but in reality, I’m more just simply hoping to get through should I be fortunate enough to be alive around 7:45pm. After reading the intro it’s pretty obvious I’m not taking chalk on top, and the value on #6 SOUTHERN THUNDER (12-1) is too good to pass up, especially since his turf races aren’t all that bad, and came against better, so here’s hoping the surface switch works. Don’t sleep on #10 CAROLINA ISLAND (10-1) either, who gets Desormeaux, is another with decent enough back turf form against better, and seems tactical enough to negate this bad draw a bit. The three favorites—#3 SOBERANO (7-2), #2 STUDLY PERFECTION (4-1), and #4 ELDRITCH (3-1)—all have their obvious merits and have to be used, but are also underlays with little margin for error, and the latter two have lost 13 straight, so none of the trio are overly enticing.
Pk4 A horses: 6,10,3,2,4
Pk4 B horses: If you’ve followed me in this space in the past this is usually where I tell you “If I can’t get through with five of them then I don’t deserve to win, so there will be no backups,” but I’m not that confident here. And that’s why I’ll also include #1 CONQUEST SABRE CAT (8-1), who drew perfectly and can trip out, and has back turf form to be a threat here, though he does rise in class.
Pk6 B horses: 1
Potential B add ins: #9 Gain Ground (12-1), #7 Robs Lucky Spirit (12-1), #8 King Eddie (6-1)
The suggested tickets:
Main Ticket: 5,2,6 with 8,4,7 with 4,2 with 5,2,4 with 7,5,3,2 with 6,10,3,2,4 = $216
Race 4 B Backup: 1,3 with 8,4,7 with 4,2 with 5,2,4 with 7,5,3,2 with 6,10,3,2,4 = $144
Race 6 B Backup: 5,2,6 with 8,4,7 with 3 with 5,2,4 with 7,5,3,2 with 6,10,3,2,4 = $108
Race 7 B Backup: 5,2,6 with 8,4,7 with 4,2 with 7 with 7,5,3,2 with 6,10,3,2,4 = $72
Race 8 B Backup: 5,2,6 with 8,4,7 with 4,2 with 5,2,4 with 6,9 with 6,10,3,2,4 = $108
Race 9 B Backup: 5,2,6 with 8,4,7 with 4,2 with 5,2,4 with 7,5,6,2 with 1 = $60
Budget ticket: 5,2 with 8,4,7 with 4,2 with 5,2,4 with 7,5,3,2 with 6,10,3 = $86.40