by Brian Nadeau
May 21, 2020
We’re back to battle at Gulfstream Park for their late Pk4 after a few weeks on hiatus to attack a few mandatory Pk6 bets that generated ridiculously high pools. The Pk4 won’t be quite as juicy, but should still get a very healthy pool size, so let’s try to work our way towards summer with a bankroll builder.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Race 7 (3:49 ET): 3f 20k at 7 furlongs
A significant class drop, getting back to the dirt, a cutback to one-turn, and an outside attack post in a race loaded with speed make #6 LIFE ON THE EDGE (4-1) my top pick, since she has a lot of positives in a race where you’re allowed to look for a price (not that you’ll see this ML). It’s a total guess as to what you get from #4 PICK UP THE FONE (2-1), who is one of, if not the, first former Navarro charges to run, and obviously new trainer Pletcher is as good as they come, but we know the circumstances, so while her last with blinkers-on was likely best here, getting back to that effort off just hay and water is a big question mark. I want to play against #2 DON’T GET KHOZY (5-2), who freaked with a fast-figure win (for these) last time and has the look of a bounce candidate, but the prospect of a hot and contested pace says she might get set up again, and even if she bounces she could still win, so I think you have to use her.
Pk4 A horses: 6,4,2 (listed in order of preference)
Drawing outside most of the other speed and dropping in class should help #7 KIMURA (12-1), though she was so bad last time you’re allowed to wonder if she’s completely off-form, but the fast win two-back would make her a big threat with these, so I’ll give her a look. Working out a trip from the rail is a worry, and it’s not like #1 WORDS OF DEVINE (3-1) is better on paper than any of these, so she’s a backup at best, even with Irad getting aboard.
Pk4 B horses: 7,1
Potential B add ins: NONE
Race 8: 3upfm 16k N2L at 5 furlongs (turf)
I’m looking for an upset here with #2 MY MASTERPIECE (10-1), who cuts back to one-turn, has plenty of foundation and tactical speed off all her route tries to sit a good trip off an abundance of pace, shows good turf form, and now starts for Creque, who knows how to move their form up. I’m not arguing that #5 SUGAR BOLT (2-1) is the one to beat off the stiff class drop, and her best might lap this group, but she didn’t make the front and quit last time, and is now dangled for 16k, so there is some cause for concern here. I’ll include #1 QUEEN FIELD (6-1) for many of the same reasons I have ‘Masterpiece as my top pick, as she’s another with route form and tactical speed, though her turf figures aren’t quite as salty, so she’s a bit down the list.
Pk4 A horses: 2,5,1 (listed in order of preference)
Being outside the other speed is a coup for #7 PALACE TWO STEP (3-1), but she’s a big underlay at this ML, and dueling, pressing, or chasing early, kicking clear, and then holding on late doesn’t seem like a recipe for success, so I’ll limit her use to a backup role.
Pk4 B horses: 7
Potential B add ins: NONE
Race 9: 3up Florida-bred AOC (16k/N1X) at 1 1/16 miles
I’ll be the first to admit I don’t have a strong feel for this group, but I do think that #2 NO GETTING OVER ME (9-2) could freak, as he not only runs against state breds for the first time, but he also makes his first start for Joseph, who is aces at moving them up (31% with newcomers), and this one showed some one-turn promise against open 3yo stakes runners at Tampa for Bennett, so he could blow up here for his new barn. Stretching back out and going second-off a long layoff should help #1 WILD MEDAGLIA’DORO (2-1) fire his best shot, especially since he got run off his feet a bit in his sprint return, but still ran on nicely to be 2nd in what was the perfect tightener.
Pk4 A horses: 2,1 (listed in order of preference)
The rest of these are a mixed bag, especially since three of them exit Untitled’s easy 4/23 win, and it’s #3 ROMAN EMPIRE (7-2) who is fancied for Pletcher and Irad, even though he was 4th behind both #5 Gray Beau (12-1), and #8 First and Three (8-1). I guess I’ll drink the Koll-Aid, especially since he tries two turns on the dirt for the first time, but he’s no A on my list, while the latter are a bit tougher to trust, with no upside either (15 and 55 starts, respectively).
Pk4 B horses: 3
Potential B add ins: #8 First and Three
Race 10: 3up 12.5k N2L at 1-mile (turf)
The finale is all about #2 DILLON ROCKS (5-2), who finally broke his maiden two-back off the Cibelli claim and then was a solid 3rd against better, in a race where the 2nd-place finisher came back to win. I don’t really see any point in trying to beat him, as this is an extremely modest group, even for this reduced level, and either of his last two efforts win this with ease, not to mention he draws perfectly, and gets Irad too, so I’ll take what looks like a free square in the finale, while noting that 5-2 ML will lily be in the 6-5 range by post time.
Pk4 A horses: 2
Should ‘Rocks stub his toe, there are a few who have upset appeal, with #7 MAGICAL MIKE (8-1) at the top of the list off an easy MCL win last time, and plenty of upside off just two starts; as an aside, it’s not necessarily a bad thing to be a newly minted maiden winner in these weak N2L’s. The wildcard is #10 STAR OF STARS (7-2), who ran off the screen on debut in a sloppy off-the-turf MCL and now tries the grass, and he clearly could be a player here, but this terrible draw won’t help, and he’ll be overbet facing winners and trying to a surface switch. I’m often a sucker for the re-claim, and that’s what you get with #4 BACANO (3-1), and Sano is 22% off the claim, and reaches for main man Saez, but it’s not like there’s a lot here to work with, as his grass form isn’t much, and therefore he probably falls short even with improvement, so tread very lightly here.
Pk4 B horses: 7,10,4
Potential B add ins: #1 Youshouldbesolucky (5-1)
My Suggested Tickets:
Main Ticket (play for $2): 6,4,2 with 2,5,1 with 2,1 with 2 = $9 (for each $0.50)
Race 7 B Backup (play for $1): 7,1 with 2,5,1 with 2,1 with 2 = $6 (for each $0.50)
Race 8 B Backup (play for $1): 6,4,2 with 7 with 2,1 with 2 = $3 (for each $0.50)
Race 9 B Backup (play for $1): 6,4,2 with 2,5,1 with 3 with 2 = $4.50 (for each $0.50)
Race 10 B Backup: 6,4,2 with 2,5,1 with 2,1 with 7,10,4 = $27 (for each $0.50)