by Eddie Olczyk
June 19, 2020
ANALYSIS: This Belmont Stakes has pretty much everything you can throw at it – all different running styles, layoffs vs. short rest, and horses exiting races from locally at Belmont Park to the far reaches of Meydan in Dubai. Even out of the mile and one-eighth chute, it’s still the Belmont Stakes. The key, as often it is, will be the pace. When you hear NBC announcer Larry Collmus call out the six-furlong split, take notice. If it’s 1:09-and-change, that’s when I think the off-the-pace types could roll late.
MAIN CONTENDERS: TIZ THE LAW is a deserving favorite and should get a perfect trip. Look for him to be fourth or fifth early, but not far off of the pace. Trainer Barclay Tagg has slowed him down in his works recently and I really appreciate that. With FORE LEFT and MODERNIST competing for the front with rail-drawn TAPIT TO WIN, it should favor the favorite’s finishing kick. DR POST figures to be in a similar spot following TIZ THE LAW for leading local jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. SOLE VOLANTE will be coming from farther back and benefits more the faster they go early.
VALUE PLAYS: FARMINGTON ROAD has a steady running style and will be the longer price of the two Pletcher trainees. He could be as much as twice the price as DR POST and adds value to the exotics.
$100 Belmont Stakes Wagering Strategy
- $10 Trifecta Part-Wheel: TIZ THE LAW with DR POST with SOLE VOLANTE, FARMINGTON ROAD ($20)
- $10 Trifecta Part-Wheel: TIZ THE LAW with SOLE VOLANTE, FARMINGTON ROAD with DR POST ($20
- $10 Exacta Box: TIZ THE LAW and DR POST ($20)
- $40 Exacta: TIZ THE LAW over DR POST ($40)
Eddie’s Top 4 Picks
1. TIZ THE LAW
2. DR POST
3. SOLE VOLANTE
4. FARMINGTON ROAD
EDDIE OLCZYK’S BELMONT STAKES DAY SPOT PLAYS
Race 4 – Pennine Ridge Stakes: #7 Famished (5-1)
Despite an 0-3 record on turf, he’s run very well on the grass. Outside post positions and trips have been his kryptonite. This one-turn mile gives him a better chance to deal with the widest draw, though only 7 are entered. Manny Franco moved too soon aboard him in his last race on turf. Go off of his Palm Beach effort, and with a better trip under Irad Ortiz Jr., he has a heck of a chance. I’m hoping for 6-1 or more, but the Irad Factor almost certainly keeps him under 10-1.
Race 8 – Acorn Stakes: #5 Glass Ceiling (20-1)
Take a look at this longshot price. She was impressive in her Gulfstream Park allowance victory May 16 in which the runner-up has returned to hit the board in stakes company. Glass Ceiling is another nice claim by trainer Danny Gargan and will provide value in a race that has plenty of early pace in it. She’s tactical and won’t be on the lead, nor does she appear to need to be.