by Brian Nadeau
July 8, 2020
Back to battle in this week’s all Laurel Park-Gulfstream Park Stronach 5, which once again has a 100k guarantee, and a prospective pool that should far surpass that. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R6 (3:19 ET) – 3up 16k MCL at 5 � furlongs (turf)
The two favorites—#8 PALACE KID (9-5) and #6 BACK CHARGE (2-1)—will be tough in the opening leg, as they are clearly better than their rivals, who are a weak bunch on paper. The former seems better than the latter since he goes to a potent Gonzalez barn, and also has turf sprint experience at GP, so he tops the latter, who woke way up routing here last time, but is an unknown going short.
Pk5 A horses: 8,6 (listed in order of preference)
There are several others who could surprise, so we’ll have to be a bit creative to use them, while keeping the cost of the B ticket down. I’m going to spread, as prices like #2 HAIR OF THE DOG (12-1), #12 DITEN (12-1), #7 B DETERMINED (12-1), and #11 MATSUDA (15-1) all have flashed a bit of ability and are lightly raced, and therefore they could close the gap on the top-2 with an improved run.
Pk5 B horses: 2,12,7,11
*** NOTE that I’ll have to sue the Super A strategy to include the B picks above, so, for the remaining four legs they are:
Leg 2: 10,3
Leg 3: 3,4
Leg 4: 8,12,4
Leg 5: 5,6
Potential B add-ins: NONE
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park R8 (3:30 ET) – 3up 12.5k N3L at 5 furlongs (turf)
Another race where you have to use the favorites, as both #3 JOYFUL HEART (2-1) and #10 DOCTOR DUB (5-2) hit hard, but I don’t think either has to win, as the former just bombed, drops, and hasn’t turf sprinted since December, while the latter makes his first start away from Navarro, and who knows how he runs off the February break, and note a 24% Creque barn is a more modest 14% with newcomers. I’m going to try a bomb in #6 INDY RIDE (15-1), who was facing tons better the last time he ran on the turf, and a repeat win would put him in the mix here.
Pk5 A horses: 10,3,6
There’s not much past the top-3, and even my top pick is a reach, so I’m content with just using #5 LAWYET DRILL (20-1), who was a solid 5th in his lone turf start for Abreu, and will be a square price, and #7 ENZOEXPRESS (7-2), who has some hit or miss form but will try turf for the first time, so he could wake up.
Pk5 B horses: 5,7
*** NOTE to keep the backup ticket down I’ll be singling #5 in the finale leg. ***
Potential B add-ins: #9 Visions of You (20-1), #2 Another Softball (15-1),
Leg 3: Laurel Park R7 (3:50 ET) – 3up 5k claimer* at 6 � furlongs
This could be the price race, so I’ll use four, with #3 BOOBY TRAP (10-1) on top, as he comes from Belmont, gets a big trainer change to Magee (18% with newcomers), and might be trending back up after his last. The one to beat is #4 DIRTYFOOT (3-1), who seems a must-use on the class drop, while #1 VICTORY GIVEN (9-2), just aired against a N2L win, which is never a bad thing on the rise, and #5 DAY (6-1), who drops and cuts back off a comeback 3rd at Del Park.
Pk5 A horses: 3,4,1,5
With Sillaman just 1-for-15 off the claim, I’m only using #2 BIG BOOTS (7-2) underneath, especially since it’s hard to improve off Magee, even though this veteran has solid overall form.
Pk5 B horses: 2
Potential B add-ins: #9 One More Tom (6-1), #7 Father’s Luck (15-1)
Leg 4: Gulfstream Park R9 (4:00 ET) – 3up 12.5k N2L at 5 furlongs (turf)
It’s the proven form against winners of #12 SOUPER SHENANIGAN (5-2), who drops too, against recent sharp MCL winners #8 THE NEXTBIGTHING (9-2) and #4 KOBE FIFTY TWO (7-2), and I’ll simply use them all and call it a day, as they seem better than this meek group, and ‘Thing gets top honors, as he drew best and has tactical speed to lay just off the speed.
Pk5 A horses: 8,12,4
The top-3 look a decided cut above, so I’m fine going it alone, especially when the one who could be potentially used, #6 Reagan’s Heart (6-1), brings a 24-1-6-7 record to the party.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: #6 Reagan's Heart (6-1)
Leg 5: Laurel Park R8 (4:21 ET) – 3upfm N1X at 5 1/2 furlongs (turf)
The finale is by far the toughest race of the sequence, and a real problem if you’re on a budget, but there are a few I like that I’m willing to lean on, none more so than #5 CHINA SILK (6-1), who her comeback out of the way against tougher at Belmont, and wins this if she can run back to her preceding nose 2nd at Aqueduct in November. I’ll also use another second-off the layoff miss in #6 MIDSHIP LADY (4-1), who we know needed her comeback, as Schoenthal is 0-for-16 off a 180+-day layoff, so she’s supposed to move forward in a big way here.
Pk5 A horses: 5,6
I could go any number of different ways here, but I like a trio of second-off the layoff runners here as well, as both #1 EPIC IDEA (12-1) and #2 LISTEN UP (6-1) both likely needed their last runs but have shown plenty of talent before, and can stalk the pace, while #9 CATERINA ONE (10-1) has plenty of speed and drew the perfect attack post.
Pk5 B horses: 1,2,9
To keep this backup down I need to employ the Super A strategy here as well:
Leg 1: 8,6
Leg 2: 10,3
Leg 3: 3,4
Leg 4: 8,12,4
Potential B add-ins: #4 Glittering Judy (9-2), #8 Market Money (15-1)
Main Ticket: 8,6 with 10,3,6 with 3,4,1,5 with 8,12,4 with 5,6 = $144
Leg 1 B Backup: 2,12,7,11 with 10,3 with 3,4 with 8,12,4 with 5 = $48
Leg 2 B Backup: 8,6 with 5,7 with 3,4,1,5 with 8,12,4 with 5 = $48
Leg 3 B Backup: 8,6 with 10,3,6 with 2 with 8,12,4 with 5,6 = $36
Leg 5 B Backup: 8,6 with 10,3 with 3,4 with 8,12,4 with 1,2,9 = $72