by Brian Nadeau
July 23, 2020
Back to battle with another Laurel Park-Gulfstream Park Stronach 5, which once again has a 100k guarantee, and a prospective pool that should far surpass that. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R6 (3:23 ET) – 3upfm 16k N2L at 5 � furlongs (turf)
We kick off a sequence that seems a bit more manageable than most with a bit of a scramble, so I’ll go three-deep, with #1 ECHO OF VICTORY (5-1) rating as my top pick, not only because she should be a decent price, but because she looks like the right fresh new face in a race there for the taking off her strong MCL win last time. You have to use #3 RAGTIME SUZY (5-1), who goes off the Sanchez-Salomon claim (21%), gets back to the turf, and cuts back, as there’s no doubt her grass form is much better than her main track form. I’ll also slide in #5 HALFINTHEWRAPPER (9-2), off a speedy 2nd on the main, since her lone turf run came against eons better than she meets here, and this outside attack post seems perfect for her style.
Pk5 A horses: 1,3,5 (listed in order of preference)
I’m not sold on #6 JUDI BLUE EYES (4-1), who would be a big underlay at this price and has had her chances, but she’s in the mix on paper and will run on, so she looks the definition of a backup.
Pk5 B horses: 6
Potential B add-ins: #8 Pins and Needles (10-1), #2 Princess Rosie (10-1), #4 Merry Maid (10-1), #10 Sunday Red (6-1)
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park R8 (3:40 ET) – 3upfm Fl-bred AOC (16k/N1X) at 1-mile
With a ton of pace signed on, which could directly impact several of the would-be contenders, I’ll be aggressive here and use only two, with #5 ALLUSTRA (8-1), who will be nowhere near this ML, looking good from off the pace after facing open foes in his last five. I guess the horse to beat is #7 R U LUCKY (2-1), though betting him anywhere near this ML would be a bad idea, but he stretched out to this trip and was a solid 3rd at the level last time, and his pressing style from this post will give him first run on the pick too.
Pk5 A horses: 5,7
The expected hot pace, and the fact a few of the perceived contenders want to be part of it, makes me want to go it alone on the top line, so there will be no backups here.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: #6 Ingreido (3-1), #3 So Long Chuck (4-1)
Leg 3: Laurel Park R7 (3:59 ET) – 3up 25k SOC at 1-mile (turf)
Another race where I think the win threats are easily identifiable, and I’m hoping #1 START WITH YES (9-2) gets brave off the Robb claim (24%) off a slew of sprints, as the lead is there for the taking, he’s certainly bred for this trip, and new rider Perez is a robust 26% for the barn. Obviously #4 SOMEKINDOFMAGICIAN (5-2) is the one to beat, as he’s proven routing, is tactical, and was just a close 2nd at the level, though his margin for error is a bit smaller than his off odds will suggest. Don’t sleep on #6 DHARMASTER (5-1), who predictably chased and tired to 5th behind ‘Magician last time, but that came off a 13-month layoff, so he’ll be a lot tighter here, especially since Trombetta is 25% second-off a long layoff.
Pk5 A horses: 1,4,6
I like the top trio I have and the rest seem a bit suspect, so I’ll go it alone, especially since my next pick, #2 Closer Look (5-1), has no speed and may regress off the big 3rd behind ‘Magician last time.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: #2 Closer Look (5-1)
Leg 4: Gulfstream Park R9 (4:14 ET) – 3upfm 12.5k N2L at 5 � furlongs (turf)
In what looks like the biggest spread race of the sequence, I’m using a total of seven, with five on the top line, led by a price with #2 LADY PARADISE (10-1), who should be up close throughout off the long break for a D’Angelo barn that is 2-for-10 off extended layoffs, 3-for-13 (23%) with Panici, and this miss was a fast 3rd (for this group) when last seen on the turf. The trio of #10 ZIP IT JESS (7-2), #11 DINNER AT FIVE (2-1), and #4 GRAN DIAMOND (9-2) would be no surprise, but none of them inspire either, so I’d be hesitant on leaning too heavily on any of them. (As an aside, there’s just no way ‘Dinner can be 2-1 off a slow, all-out MCL win, so don’t just look casually and this she’s a single candidate). Lastly, I’ll toss in longshot #5 FLAMING LADY (20-1), who drops in half off a decent 6th in her turf debut, and she won’t have to run that much faster to play with, or even beat, this crew.
Pk5 A horses: 2,10,11,4,5
I could easily have put #3 PRINCESS AVRIL (10-1) and #12 R SEA SMOKE (5-1) up above, but the former wasn’t all that good facing winners last time, while the latter drew poorly and may need pace help on the drop, so I’ll limit their use to supporting actresses.
Pk5 B horses: 3,12
Potential B add-ins: #7 Dancingwithjimmieb (15-1)
Leg 5: Laurel Park R10 (4:33 ET) – 3up 12.5k claimer at 1 1/16 miles (turf)
If Leg 4 was the definite spread, then Leg 5 is the definite single, as #6 CHOCOLATE RIDE (8-5) just lays over a very modest field, especially since his biggest rival, #13 Jag (4-1) is on the AE list, as his four starts since going to Russell are simply better than anything this group has done in quite some time.
Pk5 A horses: 6
Should Jag draw in, then he could be used as a backup, since he drops in class and fits on figures, but even so, this post would do him no favors, as he’ll be wide every step of the way. As for the rest, no one inspires nearly enough to be worth inclusion.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: #12 Posterity (9-2), #8 Bondurant (6-1)
Main Ticket: 1,3,5 with 5,7 with 1,4,6 with 2,10,11,4,5 with 6 = $90
Leg 1 B Backup: 6 with 5,7 with 1,4,6 with 2,10,11,4,5 with 6 = $30
Leg 4 B Backup: 1,3,5 with 5,7 with 1,4,6 with 3,12 with 6 = $36