by Brian Nadeau
July 29, 2020
Back to battle in this week’s Stronach 5 after heavy rains in Florida and Maryland forced the cancelation last week. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R6 (3:21 ET) – 3up 16k MCL at 1 1 1/16 miles (turf)
It’s always risky when you look at a race and think it’s cut and dried and decide to take it as face value, but that sure looks the case here as #2 LIFESPAN (9-5) and #7 STORM TOWER (5-2) look much the best over a very modest group, so that’s how I’ll play it. The former gets the nod on top, as he’s drawn inside, could be the controlling speed, and beat ‘Tower last time, though the latter certainly hits hard and it’s never a bad thing to be outside your main rival.
Pk5 A horses: 2,7 (listed in order of preference)
I’ll somewhat begrudgingly use #3 MY MOONSHINE (7-2) underneath, since he does have some upside off just two starts, and drops slightly in class as well, though his lack of early speed is a definite negative.
Pk5 B horses: 3
Potential B add-ins: #6 Pardon the Pun (8-1)
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park R8 (3:40 ET) – 3yo 40k claimer at 1-mile (turf)
While most of the races in the sequence look formful, and with a few potential singles as well, this one is nothing of the sort, so I’ll spread deep and hope to hit a price, while using seven of the nine entered; #1 LETS PLAY HARDBALL (6-1), #7 DOMINATE THEMOMENT (4-1), #4 CAPTAIN D (7-2), #2 LURE HIM IN (3-1), #9 UNCORK THE BOTTLE (8-1), #6 KUNAL (10-1), and #10 THRESHOLD (8-1). Posts are at a premium, as always, at this trip, and the fact ‘Hardball drops in class after trying winners will help, while both ‘Dominate and ‘Captain have the best form and seem the pair to beat.
Pk5 A horses: 1,7,4,2,9,6,10
*** Please note, to keep the cost of the backup tickets down, I’ll be using only 1-7-4. ***
With anyone with any kind of form covered above, there are no backups here.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: NONE
Leg 3: Laurel Park R7 (3:59 ET) – 3upfm 5k claimer N3L* at 6 furlongs
Sometimes you have to take what they give you, and they seem to be giving us #6 SUSIKIN (3-1), who just looks better than a field that offers very few alternatives, especially since this outside attack post is perfect for her speedy style, and either of her last three would win this, likely be open lengths too.
Pk5 A horses: 6
The two obvious alternatives are #4 HAND RAIL (5-1) and #3 HENDAYA (7-2), and I’ll use both, since I can get alive to them at an affordable price, and the former was close to the single two-back, while the latter would be a threat if she can get back to her form here this winter, though that seems iffy off her last two.
Pk5 B horses: 4,3
Potential B add-ins: NONE
Leg 4: Laurel Park R8 (4:33 ET) – 3upfm Md-bred allowance at 5 � furlongs (turf)
It’s going to be tough to beat #3 A GREAT TIME (7-5), who lays over these on class and figures and looks poised to name the score on the drop into the state-bred ranks after a slew of sharp runs out of town against open company, so she’s the obvious single in the sequence.
Pk5 A horses: 3
Should the heavy favorite stub her toe maybe #2 DANCE OR STROLL (9-2) wins because the pace is too hot and she runs her down late, or #6 EPIC IDEA (4-1) continues her forward progression off the sharp win last time against lesser, though it looks like both will need ‘Time to regress several lengths to pull this off.
Pk5 B horses: 2,6
Potential B add-ins: #7 Gifted Heart (6-1)
Leg 5: Gulfstream Park R10 (4:48 ET) – 3up 12.5k N3L 5 furlongs (turf)
I’ll be spreading here, as I have the bankroll to cover several, so I’ll go with five, with
#6 R BOY EVENS (5-1) as my top pick on the return to turf and drop in class, while #9 FORT KING (3-1), #11 YOUSHOULDBESOLUCKY (9-2), #12 YOUNG RAYMOND (7-2), and #2 SLICK STAR (8-1) all have races that put them in the mix in a spot that seems pretty wide open.
Pk5 A horses: 6,9,11,12,2
Both #3 REAGAN’S HEART (12-1) and #5 INDY RIDE (15-1) have a few races that put them within shouting distance of the top-5, and at big prices I’ll toss them in, especially since I’ve structured my tickets so that it’s very affordable to include them.
Pk5 B horses: 3,5
Potential B add-ins: NONE
Main Ticket: 2,7 with 1,7,4,2,9,6,10 with 6 with 3 with 6,9,11,12,2 = $70
Leg 1 B Backup: 3 with 1,7,4 with 6 with 3 with 6,9,11,12,2 = $21
Leg 3 B Backup: 2,7 with 1,7,4 with 4,3 with 3 with 6,9,11,12,2 = $60
Leg 4 B Backup: 2,7 with 1,7,4 with 6 with 2,6 with 6,9,11,12,2 = $60
Leg 5 B Backup: 2,7 with 1,7,4 with 6 with 3 with 3,5 = $18