by Brian Nadeau
August 5, 2020
Back to battle in this week’s Stronach 5, which once again has a 100k guarantee, and a prospective pool that should far surpass that. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R6 (3:21 ET) – 2yo MSW at 5 furlongs
A seemingly tough, non-descript 2yo dash kicks off the sequence, though at least we have the benefit of being able to watch the tote to see who’s live and taking money, and who isn’t, which can often be a key indicator in these events. And that becomes even more imperative here, as those who have run don’t seem to be any great shakes, which means the firster #1 DEPOSITORY (10-1) has to hit hard off a slew of encouraging works for Lynch, who is a stiff 22% on debut and 28% with 2yos. With that being said, experience is a big edge at this time of the year with 2yo, so Lynch’s other runner, #4 SAN ANTONE (5-2), who was 2nd in both starts at Del Park, along with #9 ALWAYSINAHURRY (7-2), and #7 DON’T DARE ME (7-2), who were also 2nd in their respective debuts up in Wilmington, also merit strong consideration.
Pk5 A horses: 1,4,9,7 (listed in order of preference)
I was tempted to put both #8 ALPHA QUEUE (10-1) and #10 KAKE’SCHARMINGBOY (8-1) on the top line, as they debut for strong connections, but with Gaudet at just 8% with firsters, and Matz a slightly better 11%, I’ll it’s best to limit their use to a secondary role, unless the tote screams ready.
Pk5 B horses: 8,10
Potential B add-ins: #5 Gallant George (15-1), #6 Ladneedsahandler (12-1)
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park R8 (3:40 ET) – 3up AOC (25k/N1X) at 5 furlongs (turf)
Toss the two-turn dud last time and #5 FRENCHMAN STREET (5-2) is close to a single, as his turf sprint form against much better is stellar for Maker, and this attack post and his tactical speed are going to make him mighty tough to beat—if that last didn’t throw him for a loop. If it did, just maybe #10 SOVEREIGN WARRIOR (8-1) can take advantage, as he was a very sharp and close 4th in a stakes last time, will be close throughout, and could be four times the price as well.
Pk5 A horses: 5,10
I’m going to go it alone on the top line, as ‘Street looks close to a single, but I’m also using ‘Warrior equally, so I don’t think it’s prudent to add to the ticket, when I have two very strong opinions on the top line.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: #9 Cable Channel (4-1), #7 Tench (6-1), #2 Go Gone Gone (3-1)
Leg 3: Laurel Park R7 (3:59 ET) – 3upfm 5k N3L* at 1-mile
This one won’t make things easy on your bankroll, as there are countless runners you could use, yet all of them are impossible to trust off class drops and mixed form. I’m going to use as many as I can, between the two slots, since I have no strong opinion and want as much coverage as I can cram in. The list starts with #8 WIN THEN GRIN (4-1), a Charles Town invader who was facing allowance runners at two turns and held her own, and has a pair of local wins on her resume, so she should have some foundation for this one-turn mile, over a track she seems to like. If things get too hot early then both #10 PRINCESS GEORGIA (10-1) and #9 ORTINOLA (6-1) will be herd from late, as both drop in class, and the former should like getting back to the dirt after a no-show on turf last time.
Pk5 A horses: 8,10,9
I’ll slide in the speed of #7 SI MAMACITA (9-2), who may be fastest of all in a race that has a few pace players, but none that can match her early foot, and rising in class off a N2L win and being the fresh new face here might now be a bad thing, though she almost blew a 4-length late lead, which gives cause for concern. I don’t know what to make of #3 CALINAS SONG (6-1), who has been in for a much higher tag sprinting lately at Del Park but didn’t do much running, but with Gonzalez calling the shots I think her presence here is noteworthy, and it’s not like she needs to freak to be a threat either.
Pk5 B horses: 7,3
Potential B add-ins: #2 Carousel Magic (6-1), #1 Simmard Shenanigan (15-1), #5 Hand Rail, #11 Hoss Kitten (12-1)
Leg 4: Gulfstream Park R9 (4:14 ET) – 3up 10k MCL at 1-mile
I’d like to think we can lock this up by using #8 ATCAPOTE (4-1) and #9 TONY SMALL (2-1), as they simply seem a lot better than a slow bunch, are best on figures, and, with each being 0-for-10 lifetime, they still haven’t quite checked off the lifetime maiden box just yet. As for who I’m actually taking on top, I’ll take the former for the small surprise, if only because he’s a better price and is proven going this far.
Pk5 A horses: 8,9
The next logical runner is #6 MOZANO (7-2), who is tactical enough to get the jump on the top pair and has been in the money in three straight, though he also seems a few lengths them, hence I’m using him underneath.
Pk5 B horses: 6
Potential B add-ins: NONE
Leg 5: Laurel Park R8 (4:32 ET) – 3up AOC (35k/N2X) at 5 1/2 furlongs (turf)
I don’t want to quite call this a match race between #4 PAGLIACCI (3-1) and #6 TEMPT ME TWICE (7-2), but it sure looks that way on paper, as the former was 2nd, and a half-length ahead of the latter, in a race four of the eight entered come out of on 7/15 at Del Park. And once again it looks like ‘Twice’s tactical speed gives him a big edge over the closing kick of Pagliacci, so I’ll play it that way, though I’ll use them both equally, since the margin is a slim one.
Pk5 A horses: 6,4
The only true alternative I can see is #1 ALLTHEWAY TO CAIRO (12-1), who was 5th behind the top pair last time, but only 2 1/2 lengths behind ‘Twice, and considering it was his turf debut too, he’s eligible to run better here, though the rail offers no bargains.
Pk5 B horses: 1
Potential B add-ins: #7 Sky Magician (6-1), #8 Fort Fortitude (7-2), #5 Cuestion de Tiempo (9-2)
Main Ticket: 1,4,9,7 with 5,10 with 8,10,9 with 8,9 with 6,4 = $96
Leg 1 B Backup: 8,10 with 5,10 with 8,10,9 with 8,9 with 6,4 = $48
Leg 3 B Backup: 1,4,9,7 with 5,10 with 7,3 with 8,9 with 6,4 = $64
Leg 4 B Backup: 1,4,9,7 with 5,10 with 8,10,9 with 6 with 6,4 = $48
Leg 5 B Backup: 1,4,9,7 with 5,10 with 8,10,9 with 8,9 with 1 = $48