by Brian Nadeau
August 12, 2020
Weekly Bankroll Builder: August 14 Stronach 5 Play
We welcome back Golden Gate Fields in this week’s Stronach 5, which once again has a 100k guarantee, and a prospective pool that should far surpass that. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R7 (3:58 ET) – 3up N1X at 1 1/16 miles (turf)
Nothing is easy to kick off the sequence, with a deep and competitive group lined up, and I’m going to spread deep, as no one stands out, and several look within a length or two of each other on paper. I’ll go with the lightly raced #3 MCELMORE AVENUE and #5 CLEAR VISION, who have plenty of upside for sharp young connections, as well as the more proven #4 TOM HAGEN, #9 NICK PAPAGIORGIO, and #8 OLD DOMINION, who have all run well enough both in the past and in the present to win this.
Pk5 A horses: 3,5,4,9,8 (listed in order of preference)
I’m not really sure when #7 BENNY HAVENS’ last came from, but he was only 1 1/2 lengths behind Nick P, so if he’s up above, this one has to be somewhere, while #10 START WITH YES will run for the first time on turf for Robb, and it would be foolish to leave a 26% barn out altogether, especially with the big turf sprint showing two-back.
Pk5 B horses: 7,10
Potential B add-ins: NONE
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park R9 (4:14 ET) – 3up 12.5k N3L at 1 1/8 miles (turf)
You could certainly do worse than singling #1 MYSTICAL MOON, who simply looks better than what is a very meek group, but the fact he’s run 2nd or 3rd in five straight says to tread lightly, so while I’ll use him, I want someone else, just in case. And that thinking lands me on the lightly raced #6 DEVOTED KITTEN, who had trouble late when 6th behind ‘Moon last time, has upside off just 11 starts, and goes off the claim for a Winebaugh, who rarely dips in for one, so there’s reason to think she likes what she saw.
Pk5 A horses: 1,6
The drop in class alone says #8 CRYPTO GOLD is a player, but his two runs against N3L foes have been abysmal, so just because he’s meeting easier doesn’t mean he’s regaining his form, which is why he’s relegated to a supporting actor.
Pk5 B horses: 8
Potential B add-ins: #2 Machiavelli, #7 Unlimited Data, #9 Mason’s Song
Leg 3: Laurel Park R8 (4:32 ET) – 3up Md-bred N1X* at 6 furlongs
A drop in with state breds could make #8 BULLETS CHILD too tough for these, especially from this outside attack post, as he’s never been behind a horse through the third call of ANY of his six races, and there’s not much speed here, so he may be down the road. However, the two-turn foundation and tactical speed that #3 GALERIO brings makes him very interesting, and he enters off a starter-allowance romp at Parx, so I’m going to use him equally and call it a day.
Pk5 A horses: 8,3
The top-2 seem like a cut above, and I get all the best of it with the speed of ‘Child and the stalking ability of Galerio, so I’ll call it a day, especially since I spread deep in the opening leg and need to condense somewhere.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: #1 Tommy Shelby, #4 Whiskey and You
Leg 4: Laurel Park R9 (5:07 ET) – 3up 16k N3L at 5 1/2 furlongs (turf)
You may be able to lean heavily here too, as there’s just not much, and that means the speed of #6 NAUTICAL NATURE will hit very hard, and either of his last two are probably good enough to win this, as this group isn’t nearly as tough as the pair he just faced. I’m not crazy about the lack of speed from #9 DRAGON MOON, but he just dead-heated with ‘Nature off the trainer change to Mancilla, and there is some other pace, so off that run maybe he gets there this time.
Pk5 A horses: 6,9
The only other runners I could possibly see is #7 Red Clay Road, who was a close 4th, just 1 1/2 lengths behind my top pair the last time, he was on turf, but he was also 82-1 that day, so he can beat me if he wants, and #5 Railmaster, but he doesn’t seem to be the same horse in two starts this year, and that form doesn’t warrant inclusion here.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: #7 Red Clay Road, #5 Railmaster
Leg 5: Golden Gate Fields R2 (5:20 ET) – 3upfm 6.25k claimer at 5 1/2 furlongs
Golden Gate returns with a toughie, and while #7 NO SPIN ZONE is just 3-for-21 here, she has hit the board in 12 of them, and won here for 5k three-back, plus this outside attack post should work perfectly for her speedy style. If the pace gets heated then #3 OYSTER SHOOTER will be a handful late, especially on the drop from 25k, but yikes, that also makes her tough to trust, as she’s seemingly being given away after some competitive runs at that level this winter. A hot pace would also help #1 C C THE BARTENDER, and though her first off the Mathis claim last time at LRC was a bit of a dud, she’s 4-for-16 here and should improve second-off the long layoff.
Pk5 A horses: 7,3,1
I’ll slide in #2 CA DREAMER as a backup, as she aired on the lead for 5k when last seen here in December, but has also stalked and won before as well, for a Miyadi barn that is 20% off this elongated break.
Pk5 B horses: 2
Potential B add-ins: NONE
Main Ticket: 3,5,4,9,8 with 1,6 with 8,3 with 6,9 with 7,3,1 = $120
Leg 1 B Backup: 7,10 with 1,6 with 8,3 with 6,9 with 7,3,1 = $48
Leg 2 B Backup: 3,5,4,9,8 with 8 with 8,3 with 6,9 with 7,3,1 = $60
Leg 5 B Backup: 3,5,4,9,8 with 1,6 with 8,3 with 6,9 with 2 = $40