by Brian Nadeau
August 27, 2020
Another Friday of the Stronach 5, which once again has a 100k guarantee, and a prospective pool that should far surpass that. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R7 (3:56 ET) – 3up 40k MCL at 7 furlongs
I never like to say a horse has to win, but #7 THE CAIRO KID (8-5) has to win the opening leg on the MSW drop, as not only are his last two dirt races a month better than anyone here, but said anyone here doesn’t come close to stacking up to his form, so I’ll take the bait and single a horse that looks about 4-5 when the dust settles.
Pk5 A horses: 7 (listed in order of preference)
Should ‘Kid falter then maybe #5 MORE TWIRL (10-1) has an upset chance, as he adds Lasix, has run just twice, and once on dirt, and gets off the rail in his dirt debut, when the rider lost the whip too. The MSW drop should also help #6 STASH MY MONEY (9-2), and his stalking style will too, but at 15-0-2-4 he’s very dicey, and came up empty at Parx, and Lake is 0-for-10 here, so tread lightly. Going second-off the layoff could help #3 BARRISTER (8-1), and is best puts him on the line with ‘Kid, but he’s been dreadful in his last two, so he’s impossible to trust and it’s implausible to think he finds that form again either.
Pk5 B horses: 5,6,3
Potential B add-ins: #2 Royal Thunder (4-1), #4 Maybe Someday (10-1)
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park R9 (4:14 ET) – 2f 35k MCL at 1-mile (turf)
A tough race, as there’s little in terms of proven turf form, but firsters #4 VIBURNUM (5-1) and #2 SAMURAI FIGHTER (9-2) both drew well, have a slew of works for solid connections, and sure don’t meet much, so they have to be used in some form. Experienced runners #5 BLUE PAYNT (3-1) and #7 BEACH CHICK (6-1) have an edge because of their runs, and the former has been 3rd twice and the latter drops from the MSW ranks, so I’ll toss them in too.
Pk5 A horses: 4,2,5,7
I can’t use #9 ZAP MAMA (7-2) on the top line off that horrific debut, plus this post is brutal, so I respect her on the drop for Maker, but there’s no way I can put her on the main ticket from out here off that unveiling.
Pk5 B horses: 9
Potential B add-ins: #6 Gulf Coast Gal (4-1)
Leg 3: Laurel Park R8 (4:32 ET) – 3up Maryland-bred N1X* at 1-mile (turf)
What do you do with the speedy # 10 DUNDALK (5-2), who wins this by 7 if he’s right, but hasn’t been seen since 6/19 and drew worst of all? The awesome works on display say you have to use him, and the fact he’s not entered for a tag off the long break bodes well too, but I’m not sure I can stand alone with him, especially since he meets a lot of other speed, and is off a trainer change (though new conditioner Dilodovio is every bit as good as O’Connell). So, with that being said, I’ll use a few others, as #2 CANNON’S ROAR (4-1) drew perfectly, enters off an open N1X win over the course, and has a stalking gear that should enable him to trip out beautifully off all the speed, while #5 BROKER’S REWARD (6-1) goes for Trombetta, who I have a lot of respect for and is 13% off this extended layoff, and this one shows some big works, shows turf races from last year that fit with everyone but Dundalk, can stalk all the speed, and note McCarthy is 28% when he rides for the barn.
*** Please note that I will be singling Dundalk to keep the cost of the backup tickets down. ***
Pk5 A horses: 10,2,5
I contemplated singling Dundalk before thinking otherwise, so I won’t be using any other backups with now a trio lined up on the top line.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: #6 Seville Barber (9-2), #7 Start With Yes (6-1)
Leg 4: Laurel Park R9 (5:07 ET) – 3upfm 25k MCL at 1-mile (turf)
I don’t like the fact #4 ESTHER’S FORTUNE (5-1) blew a 3 ½-length late lead but it was her turf bow, and she’s run just twice, so off that, with a good post and a ton of upside, she looks primed for a big run. Getting back to the turf and dropping in class will help #9 PERFECT KIND (7-2), but the losses are adding up and she seems to find one or two better, so tread lightly if you’re keying her.
Pk5 A horses: 4,9
Both #6 R V TREASURE (4-1) and #12 RAZOR GIRL (4-1) have their merits and need to be used, but the former has seen her form stagnate, and the latter is marooned out wide, so I’ll relegate them to the second tier.
Pk5 B horses: 6,12
Potential B add-ins: #11 You’re Doing Fine (10-1), #10 Pearlyville (10-1)
Leg 5: Golden Gate Fields R2 (5:20 ET) – 3upfm 20k MCL at 1-mile (turf)
The finale looks like the ole ‘Use one or use them all,” and I certainly can’t do the latter, so I’ll do the former and go with #5 LEMON DROP TINI (5-2), who simply looks better than a muddled group, drops in class off a Dmr MSW, and wins this with ease off any of her previous four runs while facing tons better.
Pk5 A horses: 5
I have no clue why #7 SURFACE (2-1) is the ML favorite but she could win if the pick stubs her toe, but the local MSW run was awful and she may be regressing from her Ca. form, while both #3 KAYDA (10-1) and #2 HEATSKY (8-1) drew well and have some solid turf form, so they are worth inclusion on a backup ticket.
Pk5 B horses: 7,3,2
Potential B add-ins: #1 Foggy Bottom (9-2)
Main Ticket: 7 with 4,2,5,7 with 10,2,5 with 4,9 with 5 = $24 (play for $2)
Leg 1 B Backup: 5,6,3 with 4,2,5,7 with 10 with 4,9 with 5 = $24
Leg 2 B Backup: 7 with 9 with 10 with 4,9 with 5 = $2
Leg 4 B Backup: 7 with 4,2,5,7 with 10 with 6,12 with 5 = $8
Leg 5 B Backup: 7 with 4,2,5,7 with 10 with 4,9 with 7,3,2 = $24