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Wednesday Kentucky Downs Picks with 1/ST BET Assistance

by Jeremy Plonk

September 9, 2020

Kentucky Downs' mini-boutique meet provides unique handicapping challenges. The 1/ST BET app can help you bridge that gap with a data-driven process.

Selections provided by the 1/ST INDEX measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

Xpressbet and 1/ST handicapper Jeremy Plonk provides his human insights to the AI picks for the Kentucky Downs Wednesday card.

Race 1 (1:15PM ET) // starter allowance // 1 mile (turf)

11 – Bonita Springs (27% W // 46% P // 56% S)
1 – Jordan’s Kitten (14% W // 19% P // 27% S)
8 – Four K’s (14% W // 25% P // 42% S)
7 – Double Oaked (10% W // 24% P // 38% S)

Jeremy’s Take: 13-point spread is second-largest on the card and you get it with a 6-1 morning line price. Jordan’s Kitten appears to have a class edge and a good second over the course, always a positive at KD.

Race 2 (1:47PM ET) // claiming // 7 Furlongs (turf)

2 – Sniper Kitten (22% W // 35% P // 47% S)
1 – Stormcoast (16% W // 42% P // 54% S)
8 – Royal Blue Boy (16% W // 29% P // 45% S)
9 – Vivid Verse (11% W // 15% P // 30% S)

Jeremy’s Take: The 1/ST INDEX isn’t keen on 3-1 morning line chalk Knights Key on the class rise going for 3 in a row. Sniper Kitten has a good performance over the course and a pedigree, trainer and jockey that’s been successful here. Exotics longshots Stormcoast and Royal Blue Boy could spruce up the gimmicks if the machine is right.

Race 3 (2:19PM ET) // maiden special weight // 6-1/2 furlongs (turf)

12 – Royal Approval (20% W // 36% P // 52% S)
1 – Class Riot (12% W // 23% P // 35% S)
11 – Flutiste (10% W // 21% P // 32% S)
7 – Bluegrass Belle (10% W // 25% P // 37% S)

Jeremy’s Take: 2-year-olds with experience have a strong historical edge over first-time starters at KD, so the 1/ST INDEX blind spot to horses without data might not be an issue here. Royal Approval looks right after the trip to Royal Ascot for Wesley Ward. One trainer who has done well with KD firsters is Brad Cox, who has Demeter worth a look. Risky Reward debuts and lures Tyler Gaffalione, who has strong marks riding juveniles here and gets on good mounts.

Race 4 (2:51PM ET) // allowance // 6-1/2 furlongs (turf)

1 – Well Concocted (21% W // 38% P // 48% S)
8 – American Mandate (14% W // 26% P // 37% S)
9 – Untraceable (10% W // 21% P // 35% S)
4 – Turn of Events (9% W // 19% P // 25% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Wide-open group with 4-1 morning line favorite Smile Bryan dismissed by the algorithm. Well Concocted has yet to try turf and had made all his impression on dirt; I’m not totally sold, but respect connections. Untraceable at 15-1 morning line is the value play on the cut-back in distance. Uncapped was stakes-placed here last year and adds more value at 10-1 morning line.

Race 5 (3:23PM ET) // maiden special weight // 1-5/16 miles (turf)

11 – Fortuna (19% W // 45% P // 50% S)
12 – Longpants Required (18% W // 33% P // 44% S)
2 – Three Flamingos (12% W // 22% P // 32% S)
9 – USS Lexington (12% W // 18% P // 30% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Most highly contested race on card by the percentages, yet the top choice settles on the 3-1 morning line favorite who didn’t run well here in last year’s appearance. Feel free to shop some. Three Flamingos interests me most, along with Longpants Required and Champagne Diet.

Race 6 (3:55PM ET) // allowance // 6 1/2 Furlongs (turf)

1 – Lady Worthington (21% W // 38% P // 48% S)
6 – Whimsical Muse (14% W // 26% P // 37% S)
8 – Regal Retort (10% W // 21% P // 35% S)
10 – VJ’s Bet (9% W // 19% P // 25% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Inside speed with Irad Ortiz and Wesley Ward teamed with Lady Worthington certainly interests at 8-1 morning line. VJ’s Bet at 12-1 morning line narrowly missed in a similar race here last year when runner-up and lures Flavien Prat, a better fit in the saddle. Yes It’s Ginger is 2-for-2 since changing barns and fits.

Race 7 (4:27PM ET) // maiden special weight // 6 1/2 Furlongs (turf)

10 – Born Great (21% W // 37% P // 54% S)
5 – Ghost Fighter (13% W // 24% P // 36% S)
8 – Red Storm Risen (11% W // 22% P // 33% S)
11 – Fugitive (10% W // 26% P // 39% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Born Great at 6-1 morning line jumps off the page to me after a solid debut in a productive race at Churchill, but mostly because of KD super-sire Scat Daddy. His offspring relish this place. I’m lockstep with the logarithm in this one.

Race 8 (4:59PM ET) // allowance // 1 mile (turf)

4 – Kroy (27% W // 47% P // 57% S)
1 – Sueno (15% W // 26% P // 43% S)
7 –Big Agenda (15% W // 20% P // 28% S)
2 – Marza (10% W // 24% P // 39% S)

Jeremy’s Take: 12-point spread between Kroy and the rest, and you get 5-1 morning line. This one should fit well for potent claiming trainer Robertino Diodoro, but the gelding will be making his first local start and the pace will be hot. Bizzee Channel has run well twice at KD for a Larry Rivelli barn that strikes at a high rate everywhere, including here. The pace cooks with Mick’s Star also up front, a local course winner. Sentry is my top choice from off the pace.

Race 9 (5:32PM ET) // $300,000 Tapit Stakes // 1 mile 70 yards (turf)

5 – English Bee (32% W // 42% P // 59% S)
2 – Get Western (11% W // 22% P // 36% S)
9 – Empire of War (11% W // 12% P // 25% S)
12 – Temple (11% W // 12% P // 14% S)

Jeremy’s Take: The 21-point spread, the day’s biggest by far, belongs to 5-1 morning line proposition English Bee. This is easily the highest % on the card at 32% for any top choice even though English Bee is 0-for-5 on the year. He’s faced much stronger competition in his last pair, however. Morocco at 15-1 morning line interests by sharp KD sire Pioneerof The Nile and with local stakes-riding phenom Jose Ortiz up for Mike Maker. Stablemate Hembree has run big races over this course in the past. Horses like Empire of War and Big Score also merit much respect. This race looks much deeper than 1/ST INDEX suggests. We’ll see, but you should find value in singling the top pick if you agree as many will spread deeper in multi-race bets.

Race 10 (6:04PM ET) // allowance // 1-5/16 miles (turf)

11 –Cambeliza (24% W // 44% P // 57% S)
1 – Lady Oxbow (12% W // 22% P // 31% S)
2 – Blame Debbie (8% W // 22% P // 34% S)
3 – Enjoyitwhilewecan (5% W // 12% P // 27% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Another solid, 12-point spread and 6-1 morning line in the finale with Cambeliza, who broke her maiden at 13-1 in her only prior KD appearance. She’s the only course winner in the field. Morning line 3-1 favorite Blame Debbie drops out of the stakes ranks after losing her last 5, and adds blinkers in what seems a bit of a desperate double-move for a cold barn. Sursum Corda is getting really good, and very strong late, in her last few. She’s the late threat under Julien Leparoux and the one I like with Cambeliza.