by Brian Nadeau
September 10, 2020
Back to battle in this week’s Stronach 5, which once again has a 100k guarantee, and a prospective pool that should far surpass that. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R7 (3:58 ET) – 2f 40k MCL* at 6 furlongs
They better have their running shoes on to beat #1 BUCKLY’S CHARM (3-1), who was a good 2nd on debut against maidens and gets to run here without a tag because she’s a Md-bred, which gives her a big edge. You have to use #10 MISCHIEFS MODEL (4-1), since Gonzalez is 32% on debut and there’s a slew of works here, from the perfect attack post too. lastly, I’ll also use #12 JUROR NUMBER FOUR (12-1), who was bet hard on debut at Del Park and was a distant 3rd in the slop, but could move up on a fast track for Russell.
Pk5 A horses: 1,10,12 (listed in order of preference)
Two firsters intrigue me, as #9 CHAMPAGNE TOAST (6-1) shows several encouraging works for Rubley, who is 12% on debut, while #2 WONDERWALL (10-1) goes for a crafty O’Dwyer barn that is 13% on debut.
Pk5 B horses: 9,2
Potential B add-ins: #11 Why Not Tonight (6-1)
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park R9 (4:14 ET) – 3up 25k MCL at 1-mile (turf)
As always, post is key here, which makes #1 CROI MOR (5-2) and #2 ROCKET BLAST (5-1) heavy hitters, as they drew best of all, and both have form good enough to beat what looks like a modest crew, and if the former improves in his second start off the break and for Falcone, the rest of these are in deep water.
Pk5 A horses: 1,2
The post isn’t dreadful for #7 SULEMAN (7-2), and he has a lot of upside too off just two starts, so I’ll use him, but I’m not sure Arias will improve him off the claim from Sano, which is a worry. The post is a major concern for #10 ROBIN TEAM SHOW (3-1), however, which is why he’s a B, even though he’s as good as the top-2 on paper.
Pk5 B horses: 7,10
Potential B add-ins: #6 Diligent (15-1), #8 Broadcast Legend (8-1)
Leg 3: Laurel Park R8 (5:01 ET) – 3up N1X* at 5 � furlongs (turf)
Tom Proctor is a very patient trainer, so the fact that #6 FLY THE W (4-1) won off a 366-day layoff says he can run, and while facing winners is never easy, I’m going to assume he’s moving forward in a big way off the Cnl comeback MSW win, and it’s not like there are any great shakes in here either. Clearly the one to beat is #5 HE’S ONE WILD DUDE (5-2), and the fact he owns eight lifetime wins only adds to his appeal, not to mention either of his last two turf sprints wins this too.
Pk5 A horses: 6,5
He’s going to have to move forward a bit to win, but the speed of #8 CARBON DATA (9-2) always makes him dangerous, and if he clears, then just maybe he can get brave enough to move up the few lengths he needs. I don’t like the post of #13 XMASINTHECITY (6-1), but the dirt comeback was a means to an end, he’s speedy enough to potentially negate the wide draw, and his turf races last year make him a fringe player, so with the added maturity, he’s not impossible.
Pk5 B horses: 8,13
Potential B add-ins: NONE
Leg 4: Laurel Park R9 (5:02 ET) – 3upfm 25k MCL at 5 � furlongs (turf)
It’s time for a single, and time to narrow down what was getting to be an expensive ticket, so #2 WHISPURRING KITTEN (9-2) is it, provided this is on turf, as her grass runs are simply better than a weak group, and any of her three career (turf) runs wins this, and probably comfortably too.
Pk5 A horses: 2
No one else comes close to the pick’s form, though #3 Sea Storyand #4 Patriotic Punch (3-1) would be the logical alternatives, though after seven and 11 starts, respectively, it’s tough to see why today would be the breakthrough.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: #3 Sea Story (4-1), #4 Patriotic Punch (3-1)
Leg 5: Golden Gate Fields R3 (5:25 ET) – 3up 20k MCL at 1-mile (turf)
Getting back to the local oval and running for a tag over it will really move up #1 KALINE (7-2), who drew perfectly as well and could have his coming-out party here, after a facing eons tougher at Dmr last time. I wouldn’t want to single or take a short price on #8 CAPE POINT (9-5), though obviously he’s a big threat off the head 2nd at the level over the course last time, and his tactical speed will ensure a good trip too. I’m also going to toss in Dmr shippers #10 NEWELL (10-1) and #9 PERSEVERANCE (5-1), as this is a drop in class for both, they still have upside, and will be square prices too.
Pk5 A horses: 1,8,10,9
The widest draw worries me with #11 QUAZE VIPER (6-1), but his form is solid, and he wasn’t too far behind ‘Point last time, which is enough to warrant inclusion underneath.
Pk5 B horses: 11
Potential B add-ins: NONE
Main Ticket: 1,10,12 with 1,2 with 6,5 with 2 with 1,8,10,9 = $48 (can be played for $2)
Leg 1 B Backup: 9,2 with 1,2 with 6,5 with 2 with 1,8,10,9 = $32
Leg 2 B Backup: 1,10,12 with 7,10 with 6,5 with 2 with 1,8,10,9 = $48
Leg 3 B Backup: 1,10,12 with 1,2 with 8,13 with 2 with 1,8,10,9 = $48
Leg 5 B Backup: 1,10,12 with 1,2 with 6,5 with 2 with 11 = $12