by Dustin Fabian
September 10, 2020
It’s a rare weekend where the Southern California tracks and New York Racing Association tracks are both on a break, so primary focus for horseplayer this weekend is on Kentucky Downs and Woodbine.
Kentucky Downs has five stakes races on Saturday, headlined by the Grade 3 $1,000,000 Calumet Farm Kentucky Turf Cup and the Grade 3 $500,000 Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf. Both their Pick 5 and Pick 4 feature 14% takeout and massive pools are expected this weekend.
Woodbine’s card is headlined by the $1,000,000 Queen’s Plate – Canada’s equivalent of the Kentucky Derby – and my colleague, Jeremy Plonk is ‘all in’ on that race. He made it this week’s Xpressbet Race of the Week and his analysis and $100 Wagering Strategy are available free.
Here is my take on Kentucky Downs’ Late Pick 4 on Saturday. Got a little unlucky last week with Newspaperofrecord losing at Churchill and rendering our Pick 4 useless in the first leg. Let’s hope for more luck this time around.
Race 8 (4:59PM ET) // Grade 3 Kentucky Downs Ladies Sprint // 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)
I’ll start my ticket with a three-pronged approach here as #8 GOT STORMY (2/1) took a gigantic step back to her top form in her last race in the G1 Fourstardave at Saratoga. Can we trust her in this race? I think the jury is still out and I’ll also use #11 KIMARI (4/1) and #7 CARIBA (8/1) on my ticket. CARIBA is a big price but she’s coming into top form for Christophe Clement and can be a big player if GOT STORMY brings her B-game. Same is true for #9 INTO MYSTIC (6/1). She ran a monster race at Ellis Park on August 2 and is in the best form of her life.
Race 9 (5:32PM ET) // Juvenile Turf Sprint Stakes // 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)
Wesley Ward is a wizard in races like these and he’s got two entered here - #9 OUTADORE (2/1) and #10 FAUCI (5/2). Each ran well at Saratoga and both merit being on the ticket. #6 BODENHEIMER (6/1) ran a gigantic turf race when he broke his maiden at Canterbury but there’s a lot of speed signed on and these horses that are extending from 5 1/2 or 6 furlongs to 6 1/2 won’t have it easy. #5 BOSS BEAR (20/1) could be a horse worth having. He lost all hope at the break in his debut but he was well backed that day for Mike Maker and gets another shot here.
Race 10 (6:04PM ET) // Grade 3 Kentucky Turf Cup // 1 1/2 Miles (Turf)
#10 ZULU ALPHA (7/5) won this race last year and is in great form in 2020, having won 3-of-4 races this year including the G1 Pegasus World Cup Turf. If he brings that form back to Kentucky Downs, he should win. The only major threat I see is #12 HEIRARCHY (10/1). He has run huge races in his last two starts and is getting good for trainer Joe Sharp.
Race 11 (6:36PM ET) // Grade 3 Turf Sprint // 6 Furlongs (Turf)
This is probably the most competitive race of the sequence and I’m going to load up my ticket with possible winners. I’ll use #2 STUBBINS (6/1), #3 FRONT RUN THE FED (5/1), #4 TOTALLY BOSS (9/2), #6 KANTHAKA (5/1), #9 IMPRIMIS (8/1), #11 ARCHIDUST (12/1) and #12 BOUND FOR NOWHERE (5/1). That’s a heck of a mouthful and I generally don’t love using seven horses, but this race is that competitive and if I don’t want to miss out in the payout leg.
Race 8: 7, 8, 9, 11
Race 9: 5, 9, 10
Race 10: 10
Race 11: 2, 3, 4, 6, 9, 11, 12
Ticket Cost: $42.00 for 50-cents