by Brian Nadeau
September 17, 2020
With the Stronach 5 potentially canceled this week due to the wildfires in California, let’s focus our attention at Gulfstream Park and look at Friday’s late Pk4(R6-R9), which looks like the perfect example of the “less is more” play that you might be able to hit several times.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Race 6 (2:50PM ET) // 2yof MSW at 6 furlongs
A modest group of juveniles means #5 SPEEDING (5-2) is going to be tough to beat, as she was a close 3rd on debut on the turf when bet to 9-5, is bred to love the main (Into Mischief out of a Tapit mare), and has a big experience edge over what looks like her main rival. And that brings us to #10 GLADYS (7-2), who is a full-sister to the immortal Rachel Alexandra and has some decent works for her debut, though note her dam Lotta Kim is now 19 and hasn’t really produced anyone else of consequence, so you might want to tab the tote on this one (as with any of the other firsters).
Pk4 A horses: 5,10 (listed in order of preference)
Barboza isn’t really known for his debut runners but he’s a decent enough 13%, so #6 STRONG AZTECA (5-1) is worth a look off a slew of works, and with main Zayas (40% here for the barn) riding. Let’s also use #9 PENS STREET (15-1), who has a quartet of sharp works for Crichton, who is a solid 17% on debut, and this outside attack post helps too.
Pk4 B horses: 6,9
Potential B add-ins: #7 Make a Scene (12-1), #4 Najwa (8-1), #2 Toolegittoquit (12-1), and #8 Mastering Bella (6-1)
Race 7 (3:22PM ET) // 3up AOC (25k/N1X) at 5 furlongs (turf)
If there’s a spread race in the sequence this is it, as several have shown enough firepower to be a player on their best day. With that being said, I’ll go with the class and price of #2 IKEISGREAT (8-1), who has been at CD and Kee on the turf and run well, and should like this summer GP group a lot better. Clearly the horse to beat is #9 FULLY LOADED (5-2), who shows two very fast wins since the Sanchez claim and drew the perfect outside attack post for his pressing style. You get upside and a price with #1 GETTHE MUNY BERNIE (9-2) and heavy speed with #5 GO GONE GONE (7-2), so let’s use them on the top line as well.
Pk4 A horses: 2,9,1,5
I’m a bit against the fast 8/16 race that #6 SOLDOLLIE (8-1) and #7 SUBLIE APPEAL (5-1), as both might regress off what were out of the ordinary runs, and don’t have a lot of speed either. The cutback might be too sharp for #10 JOYFUL HEART (6-1), but he has some back class and has been running well, so he’s worth inclusion too.
Pk4 B horses: 6,7,10
Potential B add-ins: NONE
Race 8 (3:55PM ET) // 3up 6.25k claimer at 6 1/2 furlongs
It looks like Barboza has #5 JAMAICAN (3-1) after a fast chasing 2nd at the level last time, and a repeat would make him tough from close range. If he doesn’t get it done then #3 STARSHIP APOLLO (5-2) is next in line, as he was just a head back last time, will be closing, and might like the extra half-furlong a bit more.
Pk4 A horses: 5,3
The secondary contenders seem a cut below, though #2 STAR JUANCHO (6-1) would be a player off his last dirt run, which came against better, while #1 KAREN’S COVE (5-1) wasn’t too far behind the top pair last time.
Pk4 B horses: 2,1
Potential B add-ins: #9 Spa Jazz (15-1)
Race 9 (4:27PM ET) // 2yof 40k MCL at 1-mile (turf)
The finale looks like easy pickings for #3 YAKA (2-1), who was 2nd, beaten just a neck, in an MSW last time and meets a terribly weak crew (on paper) while taking the biggest drop in racing.
Pk4 A horses: 3
There are two firsters who you have to use, as neither #6 SILVER SKY SMOOTH (5-1) or #11 MS. MELANIA (4-1) will have to be stars to have a say, though the former has some slow works, and the latter drew terribly, which is why they are on the second line. The experience of #8 LEARNT (15-1) makes her worth a look, and that debut 5th at the level wasn’t that bad, in a race about as fast as Yaka’s on figures.
Pk4 B horses: 6,11,8
Potential B add-ins: NONE
Main Ticket: 5,10 with 2,9,1,5 with 5,3 with 3 = $8 (play multiple times)
Leg 1 B Backup: 6,9 with 2,9,1,5 with 5,3 with 3 = $8
Leg 2 B Backup: 5,10 with 6,7,10 with 5,3 with 3 = $6
Leg 3 B Backup: 5,10 with 2,9,1,5 with 2,1 with 3 = $8
Leg 4 B Backup: 5,10 with 2,9,1,5 with 5,3 with 6,11,8 = $12