by Jeremy Plonk
September 22, 2020
We drove the 1/ST Technologies database at Betmix to look at the last 5 Preakness meetings at Pimlico. Here are the stats and trends to put you on a winning path, beginning with opening day, Thursday. The 2020 Pimlico meeting runs Thursday-Friday-Saturday over the next 2 weeks, culminating Preakness Day, October 3.
1. Beware anything sired by Curlin on the local main track. His offspring are 47: 16-8-5 for 35% wins, 51% in the exacta and a $1.41 ROI for every $1 bet. They include Preakness winner Exaggerator, Pimlico Special champs Irish War Cry and Tenfold, and Black-Eyed Susan heroine Point of Honor.
2. Horses who exited runs at Oaklawn won nearly 26% on Pimlico dirt in previous springtime appearances. While we won’t see that direct move now in September, look for horses who have had success at Oaklawn in the past to transfer that form.
3. Local trainer Charles Frock has been notorious for dropping some Pimlico bombs. His 15% win rate is solid (20% on dirt), but of those 10 winners, consider his average win odds is 13-1. Those big payers include $30, $32, $51, $52 and $57 lobsters (not to mention 45-1 and 27-1 runner-ups).
4. Trainer Michael Matz has been sharp with his Pimlico turf runners, winning 23% with a $1.46 ROI for every $1 bet. He’s 11: 4-1-2 when paired on the local lawn with jockey Alex Cintron, including a $24 winner.
5. Of the potential out-of-town jockeys, keep tabs on Javier Castellano (63: 19-6-10, 30% wins and $1.52 ROI for every $1 bet) as well as Ricardo Santana Jr. (28: 9-5-6, 32% wins, 50% exacta and $1.37 ROI).