by Brian Nadeau
September 23, 2020
Back to battle in this week’s Stronach 5, after we hit the late Pk4 last week on a backup ticket that paid a healthy $196.45 for just an $8 play. This week the Stronach 5 welcomes back Santa Anita, once again has a 100k guarantee, and a prospective pool that should far surpass that. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R8 (4:20 ET) – 2yo MSW at 6 furlongs
An impossible to decipher—on paper at least—MSW kicks off the sequence, so make sure you check the toteboard to see who is live and taking money, as it could provide some important clues, especially since it looks like the firsters will dominate. I’m spreading deep in the hopes of surviving, with the dart landing on #7 TRIPLE TITOS, who drew a nice outside attack post and has a slew of sharp works showing for Farrior, who is 21% on debut, and may have found a bargain with this 2.5k purchase. I think you have to use firsters #4 JAXON TRAVELER, #2 SPEIGHTSTER ROAD, and #1 IRON PEARLS, who hail from strong connections and have several snappy works showing too, while there are some big stats for #6 LUGAMO, as trainer Sanchez-Solomon is 3-for-5 with firsters and 3-for-9 with 2yos, so I’ll toss him in too.
Pk5 A horses: 7,4,2,1,6 (listed in order of preference)
Both #3 SOME MO and #9 LAMARKABLE have some pedigree power, but with Motion and Trombetta calling the shots they may need one, and there’s turf in the pedigree of both, so I don’t want to be too aggressive with either, though they would also be no surprise. The experience of #10 KING ALAN is worth something, even though he needs to improve on the class rise off that debut 3rd.
Pk5 B horses: 3,9,10
Potential B add-ins: NONE
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park R9 (4:27 ET) – 3upfm 10k MCL at 1-mile
It kind of looks like the winner has to come from the group of #7 BENNY’S GIRLFRIEND, #8 NEW YORK COMMANDER, or #9 CAPTURED LIGHT, and that’s the order I’ll play them too, as they just look a cut above a group that doesn’t inspire, to say the least, especially on dirt.
Pk5 A horses: 7,8,9
The only horse I’m slightly interested in is #6 CAPTIVANT, who is just 0-for-2, which is a big deal here, and has yet to run on dirt either, so on the drop, with some upside, maybe she can wake up.
Pk5 B horses: 6
Potential B add-ins: NONE
Leg 3: Santa Anita R3 (4:38 ET) – 3up AOC (62k/N2X) at 6 � furlongs
Santa Anita returns with a tough nine-pack, but one without a ton of speed, which makes #2 BLACKOUOT interesting, especially since Saez is up and will be aggressive after this one was a dueling 2nd against lesser. An outside attack post and some tactical speed with help #5 PSYCHO DAR, who should like the drop in class too, while #7 ULTIMATE BANGO is 5-2-2-0 at the distance and lures Van Dyke.
Pk5 A horses: 2,5,7
If #8 ABOUT OUR TIME makes the class leap from LS and RP then he’s a big player, as his figures fit with these, and he should trip out too, but I’m just not sure how he’ll stack up on a big circuit, so I can’t pull the trigger with him on the top line.
Pk5 B horses: 8
Potential B add-ins: #9 Seven Scents, #3 Never Easy, #1 Shane Zain,
Leg 4: Pimlico R9 (4:58 ET) – 3up AOC (35k/N2X) at 1 1/8 miles (turf)
I think we can be aggressive here, as #9 GUNNISON just didn’t fire in the Henry Clark last time but his prior runs were simply much better than these, so I’m giving him a pass and coming back to him in a spot where it looks like one or all, and I always advise to side with the former.
Pk5 A horses: 9
Both #8 SOMEKINDOFMAGICIAN and #7 TAXABLE GOODS have the tactical speed to trip out, and the former hasn’t missed the board in five turf starts since the Ness claim, while the latter beat ‘Gun last time, and his other turf run this year puts him in the mix too.
Pk5 B horses: 8,7 (Please note to keep the cost of the backup ticket down, I’ll be only using #2 and #5 in Leg 3, and #6 in Leg 5)
Potential B add-ins: #12 Clear Vison, #2 Nick Papagiorgio, #6 Howman, #5 Skyscanner, #3 Dream Doctor, #11 Cannon’s Roar
Leg 5: Golden Gate Fields R3 (5:15 ET) – 3upfm 6.25k claimer at 1 1/16 miles (turf)
The slight drop in class, a race with some pace, and going off the claim for Tamayo (34%) says #6 SHARI is going to improve in a big way after some decent but non-threatening form against better and if that’s the case it may be too much for a group like this. The race flow today should be a bit better today for #4 NORTHERN ROSE, who was a meek 3rd at odds-on behind a pair here last time but will get a better pace scenario to track, which can make a big difference late. A drop in class, return to turf, and more patient ride will all help #3 TINK’S TWIRL, who has the best turf form here and should get helped by the expected aggressive pace.
Pk5 A horses: 6,4,3
I’m playing against the speeds, as class dropper #2 Side Effect might be off-form for Trujillo, who is 2-for-40 here, while #5 PURE PERFECTION got back to turf and beat ‘Rose in fast time, but with plenty of other speed signed on, doubling up won’t be easy, and she may bounce, and #9 Lacey’s Rainbow, 2nd to ‘Pure last time, is wide and looks like another bounce candidate.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: #2 Side Affect, #5 Pure Perfection, #9 Lacey’s Rainbow.
Main Ticket: 7,4,2,1,6 with 7,8,9 with 2,5,7 with 9 with 6,4,3 = $135
Leg 1 B Backup: 3,9,10 with 7,8,9 with 2,5,7 with 9 with 6,4,3 = $81
Leg 2 B Backup: 7,4,2,1,6 with 6 with 2,5,7 with 9 with 6,4,3 = $45
Leg 3 B Backup: 7,4,2,1,6 with 7,8,9 with 8 with 9 with 6,4,3 = $45
Leg 4 B Backup: 7,4,2,1,6 with 7,8,9 with 2,5 with 8,7 with 6 = $60