by Brian Nadeau
October 1, 2020
Back to battle in this week’s Stronach 5, which once again has a 100k guarantee, and a prospective pool that should far surpass that. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Pimlico R8 (4:40 ET) – 3upfm 25k starter-allowance at 5 furlongs (turf)
A great race to start the sequence, as the favorite could be 4-1 and there’s no one to lean on, which means a lot of tickets will hit the ground, no matter who the winner is. I’ll blanket it and go with the logicals, as #4 BATH AND TENNIS (8-1), #10 FOGGY DREAMS (10-1), #9 UNAQUOI (9-2), and #2 TOO MUCH TIP (6-1) all seem a slice above, so hopefully one of them will carry me through.
Pk5 A horses: 4,10,9,2 (listed in order of preference)
Being that she’s back on turf and second-off the long break, #12 WHY NOW (8-1) isn’t impossible, and some added maturity from last year would help, and her best in 2019 wasn’t too far behind these, so I’ll use her as a supporting actress.
Pk5 B horses: 12
Potential B add-ins: #5 Dance Or Stroll (6-1), #1 La Piu Bella (12-1)
Leg 2: Santa Anita R4 (5:10 ET) – 2yof Ca-bred MSW at 5 � furlongs
I’m hoping for some contested speed, as #10 SQUARED SHADY (3-1) and #8 LUXURY LINER (4-1) both want to come from off it a bit, and the former was a solid 3rd on debut, while the latter broke slow in her debut on dirt, and has been turfing since, so she could be a lot tighter now.
Pk5 A horses: 10,8
If #1 ALLIE’S PAL (5-2) gets loose it may be over quickly, but there is speed to her outside, and as solid and fast as that debut 2nd was, it came in is a 50k MCL’er, so she does step up here.
Pk5 B horses: 1
Potential B add-ins: #9 Dylans Wild Cat (7-2), #3 Complete Control (12-1)
Leg 3: Golden Gate Fields R3 (5:30 ET) – 3up 8k claimer at 6 furlongs
Arguably the second toughest race of the sequence has more than a few who can win, and a lot that look the same on paper. I’m trying to blow this up with #4 PEPPERS ACE (15-1), who drops stiffly, goes second-off the layoff, and was a close 4th against eons better two-back. The more logical winners are #5 TINA’S EXCHANGE (2-1), who easily won last time and drops slightly, and #7 MALIBU ALEX (5-2), who hasn’t missed the EX in six starts and goes off the claim for France, a 20% move.
Pk5 A horses: 4,5,7
He’ll need to work out a trip, but #1 UNPOSSIBLE (5-1) should like getting back to the Tapeta and has some solid back form, though this could be a bit too sharp, hence he’s o the B-level.
Pk5 B horses: 1
Potential B add-ins: #2 Midnight Destiny (7-2)
Leg 4: Santa Anita R5 (5:44 ET) – 3f 40k claimer at 1-mile (turf)
This has the look of a match race, as #4 A G INDY (2-1) and #3 COLUMBIAN GOLD (8-5) just way better than the res to of these. I’ll use them both, but the former has a lot more tactical speed than the latter, so she’s preferred, if you need to cut hairs, and she also should improve off the neck loss last time, as it came off a nine-month layoff.
Pk5 A horses: 4,3
No one else looks at the level of the top-2, and since I have it bookended with the best speed and best stretch runner, there will be no backups.
Potential B add-ins: NONE
Leg 5: Pimlico R1 (5:51 ET) – 3up 25k starter-allowance at 1 1/16 miles (turf)
It looks like Maker has this group over a barrel, as both #4 TEMPLE (5-2) and #10 HIEROGLYPHICS (9-2) are best on paper, but also have a stalking style in a race that looks like it should have a ton of speed, so I’ll use both equally, though if you’re on a budget you can single the former.
Pk5 A horses: 4,10
There’s no doubt #7 ABIDING STAR (7-2) is the best of the speeds, and maybe the speed of the speeds too, so I’ll use him as a backup, as we know a hot pace in 2020 can often never materialize.
Pk5 B horses: 7
Potential B add-ins: #8 Patriot Drive (12-1), #1 Fast Fire (10-1)
Main Ticket: 4,10,9,2 with 10,8 with 4,5,7 with 4,3 with 4,10 =$96
Leg 1 B Backup: 12 with 10,8 with 4,5,7 with 4,3 with 4,10 = $24
Leg 2 B Backup: 4,10,9,2 with 1 with 4,5,7 with 4,3 with 4,10 = $48
Leg 3 B Backup: 4,10,9,2 with 10,8 with 1 with 4,3 with 4,10 = $32
Leg 5 Backup: 4,10,9,2 with 10,8 with 4,5,7 with 4,3 with 7 = $48