by Brian Nadeau
October 8, 2020
Back to battle in this week’s Stronach 5, which once again has a 100k guarantee, and a prospective pool that should far surpass that. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Gulfstream Park West Race 8 (3:58 ET) – 3up 6.25k claimer at 6 � furlongs
I’ll go with #2 Chase Runner (9-2), as he drops in class, has been in good form, and, most important of all, catches a field where the pace seems suicidal, which should play right into his hands in the lane, at what can be a tricky distance too. Don’t sleep on #1 Karen’s Cove, who was just beaten a neck at the level and is another who will close late, even if this is a tougher group today. The hot speed of #8 French Quarter (3-1) and #5 Drop Kick (4-1) almost has to cancel each other out, but both could blow up off the claim for Barboza (52%) and Zerpa (32%), respectively, so they need to be used off their big recent form.
Pk5 A horses: 2,1,8,5 (listed in order of preference)
I think the top-4 should get us through, and if they don’t, it will be a big upset, so let’s go it alone there.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: NONE
Leg 2: Laurel Park Race 7 (4:20 ET) – 75k Bert Allen for Va breds at 1 1/16 miles (turf)
This one is easy, as #1 Largent (2-5) gets as big a class break as you’ll ever see, as he’s stakes-place at Saratoga and now gets to dip his toe in with Virginia breds; I’ll take the free square and move on.
Pk5 A horses: 1
The only other horse within shouting distance is #8 Kendama (8-1), but even he is a long way back, so the re will be no backups here.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: #8 Kendama (5-1)
Leg 3: Laurel Park Race 8 (5:02 ET) – 75k Punch Line for Va breds at 5 � furlongs (turf)
This one is quite as decisive as with Largent in Leg 2, but it’s not far off either, as #5 Embolden (9-5) is graded stakes placed and meets no one like that here, so I’ll single him as well, in what is shaping up as a very small ticket.
Pk5 A horses: 5
The only time #7 Lynchburg (12-1) ran on turf it was a solid win at Cnl, so if the pace gets hot, just maybe he could surprise back on what looks like his preferred surface. The fact Lawrence claimed #9 Uncle Andrew from GP for this spot says a lot, and his turf form isn’t bad at all, so he’s another who could surprise if the favorite stubs his toe. The outside draw won’t help #13 Carbon Data (5-1), but she does have the speed to negate it, and her form is the best of the rest, so let’s use her too.
Pk5 B horses: 7, 9,13
Potential B add-ins: #10 sir Rockport (12-1)
Leg 4: Santa Anita Race 4 (5:08 ET) – 2yof Cal-bred MSW at 1-mile (turf)
A drop in class and blinkers-on might get #4 MISS EVER READY (3-1) over the hump, and this post won’t hurt either, so she gets top billing over #2 WARRENS CANDY GIRL (7-2), who beat her by a nose in August in what was the latter’s turf debut and so she also seems like a must-use.
Pk5 A horses: 4,2
The fact that stretchout sprinters #6 AFTER MIDNIGHT (6-1) and #9 BIG ANDY (5-2) are outside says there will be some speed up front, so I’m only using them underneath, though neither would be a big surprise.
Pk5 B horses: 6,9
Potential B add-ins: #7 Big Stretch (6-1)
Leg 5: Golden Gate Fields Race 3 (5:51 ET) – 2yo MSW at 1-mile (turf)
This looks like heavy chalk again, as #2 DYN O MITE (7-5) is by far the best, and draws best of all too, so I’m not looking to get too creative. With that being said, I will use #8 Sober (5-1) who tries turf for his first start for local ace Wong off a decent 4th on debut, and stretches out too.
Pk5 A horses: 2,8
Getting to the turf helped #4 Sooner Than Sooner (8-1) last time, when 2nd, though he’ll need to improve here, while Del Mar invader #7 Governor’s Party (20-1) could wake up on the drop, and #6 Mr. Pickles (3-1) will be overbet, but was a good 2nd off the Trujillo claim last time.
Pk5 B horses: 4,7,6
Potential B add-ins: NONE
Main Ticket: 2,1,8,5 with 1 with 5 with 4,2 with 2,8 = $16 (play for $2)
Leg 3 B Backup: 2,1,8,5 with 1 with 7,9,13 with 4,2 with 2,8 = $48
Leg 4 B Backup: 2,1,8,5 with 1 with 5 with 6,9 with 2,8 = $16
Leg 5 Backup: 2,1,8,5 with 1 with 5 with 4,2 with 4,7,6 = $24