by Brian Nadeau
October 21, 2020
Back to battle in this week’s Stronach 5, and we’ve got another 100k guarantee, and a prospective pool that should far surpass that. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park Race 8 (4:18 ET) – 3up AOC (35k/N2X) at 6 furlongs
Speed, speed, and more speed, so unless scratches decimate the field, I’m looking for someone to come from off the pace, which lands me on #7 Awesome D J, #8 Buddy’s Run, and #2 Charge to Victory, who all have the ability to stalk early and punch late, and all enter in good form as well.
Pk5 A horses: 7,8,2 (listed in order of preference)
Post position says #4 The Cairo Kid is in a better spot than #1 Stroll Smokin, so I’ll use them in that order, but it’s tough to think either lasts if they hook up early and often, which is why they are on the second line, even though their recent form is as good as anyone else’s here.
Pk5 B horses: 4,1
Potential B add-ins: #5 Steadytillready
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park West Race 9 (4:32 ET) – 3up 12.5k MCL at 5 furlongs (turf)
Since I can see them building an ark outside my window as I type this late Wednesday afternoon here in Fort Lauderdale, I’m going to assume this one if going to be OFF the turf, and so I’ll handicap it that way. (I will also give turf selections down below, just in case). Being outside the other speed—and dropping out of a N2L—should help #8 He’s Royalty, so he gets a tepid top vote over the dropping #1 Discreet Tune and #2 R Uncle Eric, and lightly raced #3 Shortlister, in a race that you’re going to need to pay close attention to the scratches.
Pk5 A horses: 8,1,2,3
I may come back and add #4 Cold Warrior and/or #7 Maquiavelo, if more than one or two are scratches above, but if the field stays in tact I’m OK not using either, since they are both 0-for-13 with no upside, even though both have a bit of dirt form to fall back on.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: #4 Cold Warrior, #7 Maquiavelo
Leg 3: Laurel Park Race 8 (4:50 ET) – 3upfm SAL (16k/8k) at 5 � furlongs (turf)
I’ll handicap this one for the turf, but it too could come off, so make sure to pay attention to the surface and scratches. Provided we’re on the grass, it looks like the outside attack post and tactical speed of #9 La Piu Bella will make her tough, and a repeat of the Del 2nd last time would too, while getting back to the turf should help #7 Bath and Tennis, as she has some big form here earlier this year against similar.
Pk5 A horses: 9,7
There are mixed signals with #10 Olive Kat, as Gorham is 29% off the claim, but 0-for-23 in turf sprints, and he’s trying to move this one up from Ness, so while she fits on paper, I’m a bit leery too. The same can be said for #6 Algodonal, who should like getting back to the turf but didn’t fire in a trio on the dirt, yet has run well on the main in the past, which could suggest he’s going the wrong way.
Pk5 B horses: 10,6 (to keep the cost of the B ticket down I’ll be singling #3 City Rage in Leg 4)
Potential B add-ins: #3 Caterina One, #1 Madame X.
Leg 4: Santa Anita Race 3 (5:00 ET) – 3up 50k starter-allowance at 1 mile (turf)
With just six entered tactics will be at a premium, and the versatile style of #3 City Rage gives him an edge on the closing style of #6 Liberal, so if you need to narrow, you may want to single the former. With that being said, I’ll use them both, as there is some speed signed on, and if ‘Rage gets caught up in it, then the advantage swings heavily to Liberal, who will be sitting back and licking his chops.
Pk5 A horses: 3,6
I’m worried that #4 Rip City is the one who will be caught between a rock and a hard place, as he could be in a pace sandwich, which is why he’s a B, and it’s worth noting his win over ‘Rage last time might have been more a product of the latter’s tough start than the former’s good work.
Pk5 B horses: 4
Potential B add-ins: NONE
Leg 5: Golden Gate Fields Race 3 (5:15 ET) – 3upfm MSW at 5 � furlongs
Can’t say I have much feel for the finale but a big post swap makes #4 Sweet and Softly a huge threat, as she was inside #1 With Open Eyes last time and tired late, but (presumably) gets to be the presser today, which might enable her to turn the tables, while going second-off the break too. If they both duel each other into the ground then #3 Perfect Stories is the one to fear late, and she figures to be tighter second-off the long break, and gets a better post too.
Pk5 A horses: 4,3
You have to use #1 With Open Eyes, and she could easily be on the top line too, but the post is a worry, and she figures to take all the worst of it, so I’m going to limit her use to a supporting actress today.
Pk5 B horses: 1
Potential B add-ins: #6 I’ll Do It for You
Main Ticket: 7,8,2 with 8,1,2,3 with 9,7 with 3,6 with 4,3 = $96
Leg 1 B Backup: 4,1 with 8,1,2,3 with 9,7 with 3,6 with 4,3 = $64
Leg 3 B Backup: 7,8,2 with 8,1,2,3 with 10,6 with 3 with 4,3 = $48
Leg 4 B Backup: 7,8,2 with 8,1,2,3 with 9,7 with 4 with 4,3 = $48
Leg 5 B Backup: 7,8,2 with 8,1,2,3 with 9,7 with 3,6 with 1 = $48