by Brian Nadeau
October 28, 2020
Back to battle in this week’s Stronach 5, comprised of races at Laurel, Gulfstream Park West and Golden Gate Fields. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park Race 7 (3:28 ET) – 3upfm 16k N3L* at 5 1/2 furlongs (turf)
I’m probably playing with fire, but I’m only using the three logicals in the opener, as #9 PROUD MANDATE, #2 GOLDEN CAN, and #3 HONORABLE LILLY just seem a bit better than a mixed bag of gals, and the former has a closing kick, while the latter two have some speed, so I think I have it bookended as well.
Pk5 A horses: 9,2,3 (listed in order of preference)
A drop in class and getting to the turf could wake up #6 MAGICAL ANNA, and Lynch is 21% in turf sprints, so that’s a plus, while #7 TWEET AWAY ROBIN is my price, as she drops from a N1X, trues turf, and didn’t run poorly after a bad start in her lone turf start at GP.
Pk5 B horses: 6,7
Potential B add-ins: #12 Pins and Needles, #4 Missimard, #10 Elsie’s Kid, #14 La Shrimp, #16 Scarfree
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park West Race 8 (3:41 ET) – 3up 12.5k MCL at 1 1/16 miles (turf)
This is an extremely weak group, littered with lifetime maidens, so I’ll go with #2 EL SOLITARIO, who drew best, has run well on the turf, and has started just five times, and #10 SUPER EDGAR, who didn’t draw particularly well but should like getting back to the grass. (As an aside, take note of the scratches, since #12 Karamojo is a lead pipe single should he draw in, though he’s two-deep on the AE list.)
Pk5 A horses: 2,10
There are more than a few you can use here, but I’m only going with #4 PUERTO VARAS, since he draws much better than the parking lot at Tampa last time, and has run just twice on turf, while being competitive both times. You could use #9 Alperes and #5 Noble Nebraskan, but at 0-for-22 and 0-for-18, respectively, they can beat me.
Pk5 B horses: 4
Potential B add-ins: #9 Alperes, #5 Noble Nebraskan
Leg 3: Laurel Park Race 8 (4:00 ET) – 3up N1X at 7 furlongs
I’m taking a stand here and using only #5 MOOSE LODGE and #4 STONE COURAGEOUS, as the former has run just twice and closed both times at Mth, which is tough to do, and gets an extra furlong here, while the latter wins this with his last, a fast 2nd, though obviously he could bounce too since it came from nowhere, but with Smith calling the shots I’ll give this one the benefit of the doubt.
Pk5 A horses: 5,4
This is another spot where there are more than a few alternatives, but I like my top-2 and I’m ok going it alone with them, especially since the rest all look basically the same on paper and would blow up the ticket if they get used.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: #8 Absolved, #9 Paul the Waiter
Leg 4: Laurel Park R9 (4:30 ET) – 2yo 40k MCL* at 6 furlongs
I’m a sucker for an MSW dropper, which is what I get with #8 BIG CYPRESS, who didn’t run all that well on debut but will like this group a lot better, from a nice attack post too, and getting McCarthy is a coup as well. Clearly #1 HELLO HOT ROD is a must-use, as Russell is 30% on debut, and the there are a slew of positive works on display too, though the rail is no bargain. I’ll also play #3 DOUBLEOSEVEN, since he closed nicely behind a rousing winner, should get some pace, and I expect him to be a lot closer off that trial run.
Pk5 A horses: 8,1,3
I could easily slide #5 CLEVER AND GREAT up to the top line, since the debut 5th came in a very fast race for the level, though he does rise in class, which is why he’s a supporting actor (before the scratches). Capuano is only 9% on debut, so I’m a bit leery of #7 ESCAPABILITY, but the works whisper ready, most notably that 10/4 bullet, so I think you have to fit him in somewhere.
Pk5 B horses: 5,7
Potential B add-ins: #6 Stimulus Maker, #2 In the Top Ten
Leg 5: Golden Gate Fields Race 3 (5:15 ET) – 3upfm 12.5k N2L at 6 furlongs
I’m not in love with the 1-for-12 lifetime record but there’s little doubt #7 TIPPY TOP is the best horse here, and the big class drop from 50k starters should only help, so if you need a single at the end you could do worse than landing on her. With that being said, I’m going to hope for a more patient ride and use #4 THRILL’S LEGACY, who pressed when well behind ‘Tippy last time, but was a lot closer to her two-back when settling early and making a late run, and the risk-reward will be there today too, with a new jock getting aboard as well.
Pk5 A horses: 7,4
There’s a lot of inside speed, so it’s a good sign the fleet #8 NICE AND TRUE draws outside of it, and she was a close 2nd at the level off the claim, while facing winners, so she can improve, and if the droppers aren’t right, then she might have a big lead in midstretch.
Pk5 B horses: 8
Potential B add-ins: #2 Persuasive Lips, #3 Charging Home
Main Ticket: 9,2,3 with 2,10 with 5,4 with 8,1,3 with 7,4 = $72
Leg 1 B Backup: 6,7 with 2,10 with 5,4 with 8,1,3 with 7,4 = $48
Leg 2 b Backup: 9,2,3 with 4 with 5,4 with 8,1,3 with 7,4 = $36
Leg 4 B Backup: 9,2,3 with 2,10 with 5,4 with 5,7 with 7,4 = $48
Leg 5 B Backup: 9,2,3 with 2,10 with 5,4 with 8,1,3 with 8 = $36