by Brian Nadeau
November 19, 2020
Back to battle in this week’s Stronach 5, which has routinely handled well over 100k, and has a 100% carryover potential, should it go unhit. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R7 (3:23 ET) – 3upfm N1X at 1 mile
We kick off a very tough sequence with a race I hope I can bookend by using the best of both worlds, as #9 PILOT EPISODE and #3 BREAK CURFEW seem the tops among the pace players—and there are several of them—while #7 SAVEDBYTHEBELLE is the best of the stalker/closers, which is why I like the latter best, though the former pair seem like must uses as well.
Pk5 A horses: 7,9,3 (listed in order of preference)
I’ll go it alone on top, as not only do I think I have the best three, but as I alluded to, they also allow me to have coverage in the front and back of the race, which is never a bad thing, since the pace scenario can often change in an instant.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: #6 Speedy Vanessa, #2 Lucky Find
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park West R8 (3:38 ET) – 3upfm SAL (16k/12k) at 1 mile (turf)
Aside from a bold single in the finale, this could be the most cut and dried race, as #1 PASSION PLUS has clearly the best turf form and drew perfectly, which is key at this trip, while #7 NAPA RULES goes off the Crichton claim (19%) for a white hot back, and gets back to the turf, where he looked good winning two-back.
Pk5 A horses: 1,7
If #12 OBLIO’S WISH had a better post she’d be an A, so even though getting Lopez helps, and she has plenty of speed too, I just worry she’ll be hung out too wide on the first, and potentially second one as well, so I’ll use her as a supporting actress.
Pk5 B horses: 12
Potential B add-ins: #9 Calentita, #8 Isadorable Aida, #11 Rosa Star
Leg 3: Laurel Park R8 (3:53 ET) – 3up AOC (50k/N3X) at 1 mile
The next two legs are the ones I have the least amount of confidence in, so they’ll be spreads, and I’ll use four here, with #10 TACO SUPREAM getting a slight nod, as his form is sharp, and he should be in the right spot on the stretchout. I know #2 GOLDEN BROWN is primarily a Mth horse, but his form is too good not to use, while and #4 TAP TO MARK looks live on the cutback to one-turn, and #6 HANALEI’S HOUDINI has won twice in a row over the track/distance.
Pk5 A horses: 10,2,4,6
The wildcard is #7 SARATOGA JACK, who hasn’t been out since 9/19, but he’s been working bullets in the morning, had big form before he left, and could shake loose with an aggressive ride. Lastly, I’ll toss in #9 ASPECT, who, aside from the sloppy dud two-back, doesn’t seem out of his element here.
Pk5 B horses: 7,9
Potential B add-ins: #8 Fortunate Friends
Leg 4: Laurel Park R9 (4:23 ET) – 3upfm 10k MCL at 5 � furlongs
The second spread in a row starts with #2 THUNDERINTHEVALLEY, a stalker who cuts back and should get plenty of pace to rally into, and runs two and three-back would make her tough here. You get some upside with #10 BELLY FLOP, who really woke up on turf last time but has two decent dirt runs showing and could improve after just three starts. My price is #6 POPEYE’S OYL, a closer who was 4th at 39-1 last time, and is another who will like all the speed up front, which is why #7 MS. HAITI is last of the quartet, as she not only likes to duel early, but adds blinkers too, which could have her even more keyed up, and makes me a little leery.
Pk5 A horses: 2,10,6,7 (Please note, for backup purposes in Leg 5, I’ll only use 2, 10 here)
While I don’t have a lot of confidence in picking the winner among the top-4, I do think she’s in there somewhere, so there will be no B’s.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: #8 All About Audrey, #3 Solea
Leg 5: Gulfstream Park West R9 (4:42 ET) – 3up 12.5 N3L at 1 1/16 miles (turf)
I mentioned the bold single earlier, and it’s #3 SAINT LARNED, who was a very fast (for this group) 2nd at the level at 45-1 in his only turf start of late, drew perfectly, and has the tactical speed to get first run on a bevvy of closers, many of who are hung out wide.
Pk5 A horses: 3
I get it, ‘Larned is very tough to trust, as that turf run came from nowhere, so let’s toss in the class-dropping #4 POSITIVE PHIL, who also drew well and has been facing better, though this is now the fifth start since being claimed from Maker, and that top form looks to be wearing off some.
Pk5 B horses: 4
Potential B add-ins: #11 Geography, #12 Dillon Rocks, #9 Notsosubtle
Main Ticket: 7,9,3 with 1,7 with 10,2,4,6 with 2,10,6,7 with 3 = $96
Leg 2 B Backup: 7,9,3 with 12 with 10,2,4,6 with 2,10,6,7 with 3 = $48
Leg 3 B Backup: 7,9,3 with 1,7 with 7,9 with 2,10,6,7 with 3 = $48
Leg 5 B Backup: 7,9,3 with 1,7 with 10,2,4,6 with 2,10 with 4 = $48