by Jeff Siegel
December 2, 2020
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 12:35 ET Grade: C+
Use: 4-Alluring Rumba; 7-Coin the Phrase
Forecast: Coin the Phrase plummets in class for her first start since June and goes for a new outfit, so there’s clearly a condition question surrounding the daughter of Goldencents. She beats this field with anything close to her best race, but at 9/5 on the morning she’ll offer little value. Alluring Rumba probably is the more dependable of the two, will be a better price, and has numbers over this course and distance that puts her right there.
RACE 2: Post: 1:03 ET Grade: X
Forecast: Excalibur drops to the bottom (nw-2, $6,250) and should beat this woeful bunch, but at 9/5 on the morning line (and likely to go lower) there’s not much we can do with the Brethren gelding other than to use him as a no-value, rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
RACE 3: Post: 1:31 ET Grade: B-
Use: 3-Gran Saman; 4-Royal Asset; 6-Disrectionary Mark
Forecast: Gran Saman has seven prior wins over this course and distance and remains above his claim level after a two month freshening. Discretionary Marq is a strong fit at this level, employs a good second flight, stalking style, and should be heard from late. Royal Asset was a nice winner vs. lesser in an off-the-turf sloppy affair last month and this two-level raise in class shows confidence, but he’s only 1-for-17 on turf in his career.
RACE 4: Post: 2:00 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Simple Story; 3-Omnia
Forecast: Simple Story likes this main track, turns back to a one-turn mile, goes for a powerful jockey/trainer combo, and has been first or second in five of six career starts. Conversely, Omnia can’t really be trusted – she’s been a beaten favorite in three of his last four starts – and is an underlay at 7/5 on the morning line. However, she has numbers that fit and projects to enjoy a good stalking trip
RACE 5: Post: 2:30 ET Grade: C+
Use: 1-Rochambeau; 4-The Angry Man; 5-Break Beat
Forecast: Here’s a race that should be treated with caution as none of these really want to punch it in under pressure. We suspect the winner will be one of the three listed above but none are trustworthy. The Angry Man earned some strong numbers at Saratoga and may be able to out stay this group. Break Beat, freshened since September, projects to be prominent throughout and have every chance. Rochambeau is winless in five starts over the local lawn but is the most dangerous of the closing types and is guaranteed an ideal ground-saving trip.
RACE 6: Post: 3:00 ET Grade: C+
Use: 2-Brody’s Honor; 3-Piper; 8-Pine Leaf
Forecast: Piper is the quickest on paper and should appreciate this abbreviated sprint trip. Maybe she gets brave today. Pine Leaf drops considerably in class and will be running on late Brody’s Honor is a first-timer from a clever outfit that has good stats with debut runners. How good does she really have to be?
RACE 7: Post: 3:30 ET Grade: C
Use: 2-Stefanie On Fleek; 4-Little Bit Good; 6-Dienda; 9-Helena Beat
Forecast: Best advice is to tread lightly in this chaotic affair. Any one of the four listed above can win and maybe a few others as well. Stefanie On Feek has decent prior form over the local lawn and back numbers that are better than par for this level. She’ll have every chance from a good inside draw. Helena Beat is a recent winner from Monmouth Park that is properly spotted. Her numbers aren’t great but she knows where the wire is. Little Bit Good is a closer that needs all the help she can get up front. Her speed figures are modest but she’s in solid form. Dienda is a need-the-lead type and can get very brave is she becomes the controlling speed. She may face pressure today from My Masterpiece, though.
RACE 8: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: B
Use: 3-Trappezoid; 5-Ashaar; 6-Ournationonparade
Forecast: Ashaar was once a fairly well-regarded Into Mischief colt and returns off an 11-month layoff without blinkers and a healthy series of workouts for new trainer T. Pletcher. He won his debut so we know he can fire fresh and could easily be a better type this time around. Ournationonparade was overmatched in the Smile S.-G3 when last seen in September but isn’t today; however, he’s zero-for-seven over the Gulfstream Park main track. Trappezoid backs up to a sprint and always has been most comfortable as a late-running sprinter. Toss him in at 5-1 on the morning line.
RACE 9: Post: 4:30 ET Grade: B
Use: 3-Catch a Thrill; 9-Tracy Ann’s Legacy
Forecast: Catch a Thrill has a noticeable edge in the speed figure department and has never been worse than second in four prior outings over this course and distance. She’s pretty solid at 8/5 on the morning line; the only concern is that you have go back nearly two years to find her last win. Tracy Ann’s Legacy is fond of the local lawn and drops into a logical spot while remaining above her claim level. She’s a two-time winner over this course and distance but is only effective on the front end and will need to be quick enough to get over from her outside draw to secure her preferred trip.
RACE 10: Post: 5:00 ET Grade: C+
Use: 3-Soul Reflection; 9-French Reef
Forecast: French Reef is being culled from the stable while dropping from New York allowance company all the way down to this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 seller. If healthy, he’ll outrun this group but won’t offer much value at 8/5 on the morning line. Soul Reflection is a first-off-the-claim for an outfit that has ridiculously strong numbers with this angle. On pure form he’s not good enough (hence his 10-1 morning line) but D. Rodriquez has a way of moving them up.