by Jeff Siegel
December 3, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Gulfstream Park Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Thursday, December 3, 2020
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes. For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 12:35 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Serenade Kitten; 2-Cheerleader Barb; 9-Sum Nation
Forecast: Sum Nationdidn’t run badly in her debut when a too-little, too-late closing fourth in a maiden $40,000 in October at GPW and today shows up on the class drop for new trainer S. Joseph, Jr., whose record with the first-off-the-claim angle is nothing less than remarkable (36%). With the switch to “go to” rider E. Zayas, we’re expecting this In Summation filly to produce a significant forward move, her poor outside draw notwithstanding. Serenade a Kittenlands the good rail, adds blinkers, and is another that is likely to improve with a race under her belt after finishing fifth as the favorite in a performance that was compromised by self-caused trouble. Yet another second-timer likely to step forward is Cheerleader Barb, who finished with interest after a sluggish start in her only outing. Her inside draw guarantees a ground-saving trip.
RACE 2: Post: 1:03 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Candy Crushem; 3-Benefactor; 4-Mustang Cat
Forecast: Let’s go for a bit of a price in this wide-open mid-level claiming sprint. Benefactorwas graded stakes-placed over this track in his younger days, and while his recent form looks bleak the son of More Than Ready may be ready to perk up in his first-off-the-claim for a capable outfit (20% with this angle). A recent bullet half mile workout (:47 1/5) catches the eye, as does the switch to hot-riding P. Lopez, so at 6-1 on the morning line he may worth a bit of gamble. Candy Crushemhas the route-to-sprint angle we like and is a two-time winner over the Gulfstream Park main track. He remains above his claim level – a good sign - and this easier group is well within his capabilities. Mustang Catcrushed a $6,250 field at GPW at this extended sprint trip while earning a number that makes him dangerous despite the triple jump in class. This barn runs ‘em where they belong, so the class hike can be taken as a sign of confidence.
RACE 3: Post: 1:31 ET Grade: C
Use: 3-Shang’s Sister; 8-Julie Bird
Forecast: Shang’s Sisterhas little to beat in this moderate maiden claimer for juveniles and with the addition of blinkers the daughter of Paynter should be prominent throughout, perhaps even on the lead. Julie Birdwas favored in the same race that ‘Sister exits and is another likely to improve against this easier group. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these two, but it’s a chaotic affair so tread lightly, spread deeply, or pass.
RACE 4: Post: 2:00 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Inedatequila; 4-Assume Control; 9-Paynter Fest
Forecast: Inedatequilahas won her last three by daylight when facing restricted foes; today she tackles open company but based on her rising speed figures and her clever score over this track and distance in September she looks to have a reasonable chance to extend her streak. Assume Controlran into a buzzsaw in a fast, highly-rated race at GPW in a recent restricted $8,000 affair, settling for second (beaten 10 lengths) but earning a speed figure that actually charts quite well with this group. A three-time winner over the local main track, the daughter of Take Charge Indy projects to settle into a good stalking spot and then have every chance from there. Paynter Fest, third in the same race ‘Control exits, has finished in the frame in her last eight starts and is probably worth including somewhere on your ticket as well.
RACE 5: Post: 2:30 ET Grade: B+
Single: 6-La Cara Bonita
Forecast: La Cara Bonitais a first-off-the-claim automatic play for V. Barboza, Jr., whose stats with this angle is off-the-charts ridiculous (53% with a massive flat-bet profit in a sample size of 53). The Point of Entry filly was third as the choice in an open $12,500 affair when last seen in June and today shows up in a restricted (nw-2) $20,000 seller while being re-equipped with blinkers and picking up L. Saez. At 5/2 on the morning line she’s a single on our ticket.
RACE 6: Post: 3:00 ET Grade: B+
Single: 1-West Will Power
Forecast: West Will Powerearned a monstrous speed figure when improving his perfect record to two-for-two in an entry-level main track miler at Monmouth Park in October and today moves up another notch while backing up to a one-turn mile. The son of Bernardini retains regular rider J. Bravo and projects to enjoy a good second flight, stalking trip from his inside draw. A series of outstanding recent workouts at Palm Beach Downs should have him fit and ready, so at 8/5 on the morning line he’s a logical top pick and rolling exotic single.
RACE 7: Post: 3:30 ET Grade: B-
Use: 3-Uncle Fun; 8-Turlough; 10-Purgin
Forecast: Uncle Fundrops to the maiden $25,000 level for the first time, adds blinkers, and shows a runner-up effort two races back over this course and distance that is good enough to beat this field. We’re expecting him to be along in time, but we’ll also include a couple of others on our rolling exotic ticket for protection. Turloughis a first-timer from the T. Pletcher barn, and while his appearance in this modest spot doesn’t inspire confidence he certainly won’t have to be any kind of world beater to be competitive. The barn is strong with debut runners (21%) and this homebred son of English Channel certainly is bred to run long on the lawn. Purginshows a couple of dangerous angles – he’s a first-time gelding and is removing blinkers – so there’s every expectation of improvement, though the connections don’t inspire confidence. You can toss him in on a ticket or two as a back-up.
RACE 8: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: B
Use: 5-Ensign Parker; 7-Beaster
Forecast: Ensign Parkerlooked quite good graduating at GPW in a maiden $50,000 sprint last month and earned a speed figure that should be good enough for a repeat tally in this starter optional claimer for juveniles. The son of Soldat has improved in each of his three outings and we suspect the trend will continue today. Beasteralso was a big figure maiden claiming winner last time out at GPW and if he can turn in two alike he’ll be a threat right back.. At 8-1 on the morning line you have to use him somewhere.
RACE 9: Post: 4:30 ET Grade: B
Use: 4-I’m Prayingforthat; 5-Miss Miami
Forecast: I’m Prayingforthatreturns to grass after disappointing efforts in a pair of off-the-turf sprints in which she performed below form. If the weather cooperates and this race remains on grass, she could snap back in a big way, especially over a course and distance that she clearly loves (three wins in six starts). Miss Miamiis double jumped in class after a nice turf sprint score at GPW that earned a useful speed figure. She’s a two-time winner over the local lawn and projects to draft into a nice stalking position and then have her chance from the top of the lane to the wire.
RACE 10: Post: 5:00 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-All Good; 10-El Pillo; 12-Semper Fi
Forecast:First-time gelding All Goodflopped badly at 30 cents on the dollar in an off-the-turf event last month at Churchill Downs and was claimed for $25,000 by M. Maker, who raises the son of Will Take Charge to $35,000 in a sure sign that he likes the new merchandise. This will be this gelding’s first try on grass – there’s no reason he won’t like it – and from a good inside draw combined with the switch to the barn’s “go-to” rider L. Saez there’s quite a bit to like. Semper Fiis another trying grass for the first time and also will be making his first start around two-turns. The outside draw does him no favors but at 12-1 on the morning he’s worth tossing in. El Pillohas a prior win over the course and numbers that fit. He’s most effective on the front end and if he can secure that kind of trip the son of Treasure Beach could take this group a long way.