by Jeremy Plonk
December 3, 2020
Last week’s Stronach 5 paid $68,683 to 7 winning tickets, and the nation’s best bet returns this Friday, December 4 with another potentially lucrative sequence. Three races from opening week at Gulfstream Park’s Championship Meet join a pair from the Maryland Jockey Club at Laurel Park. The $1 base wager has a low 12% takeout, insuring hefty value for those who take it down.
Selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.
1/ST and Xpressbet handicapper Jeremy Plonk adds his comments and possible inclusions, formulating recommended tickets based on the app and human input.
Laurel Race 8 (3:49PM ET) // optional claiming // 6 furlongs
5 – Phantom Ro (30% W)
8 – Tale of E Dubai (16% W)
3 – Bull Shark (13% W)
4 – Nova Boy (12% W)
Notable: The 30% win rate and 14-point spread for Phantom Ro both are most in today’s Stronach 5 sequence. It could be a bold single to start, according to 1/ST BET, as Phantom Ro also has won 3 of 5 starts at Laurel Park. Bull Shark offers an interesting alternative for a jockey-trainer combination successful in Maryland this year. Tale of E Dubai changes trainers to a less successful barn since being claimed.
Gulfstream Race 8 (4:06PM ET) // optional claiming // 6 furlongs
5 – Tiger (29% W)
6 – Paladio (27% W)
3 – Carson City Kid (16% W)
2 – Warrior’s Pride (12% W)
Notable: The 29% win rate is second-highest in today’s Stronach 5, though the 2-point spread among the top pair of choices is the narrowest in the sequence. This may be a two-deep situation based on 1/ST BET. Tiger should be rolling early and hoping to ration his speed will be leading jockey Luis Saez. Carson City Kid figures to press the early issue for respected connections, but has some distance questions. Paladio actually gets the best set-up to finish, along with price player Famous Gent.
Laurel Race 9 (4:18PM ET) // claiming // 1 mile
6 – Cassey’s Girl (27% W)
1 – Embrace a New Day (15% W)
9 – Creative Alibi (15% W)
3 – Lady Macho (11% W)
Notable: The 12-point spread from first to second choice is second-highest in today’s Stronach 5, and comes with a juicy 6-1 morning line proposition in Cassey’s Girl. Expected favorite Lady Macho doesn’t get respect from the algorithm off her Finger Lakes form, but those shippers dropping from allowance to Laurel claimers have had solid success in recent years. The Boss of You doesn’t rate highly by the app, but appears to be a solid fit on the drop in class. If 1/ST BET is right, this is a great place to take a stand and separate those with faith from the pack.
Gulfstream Race 9 (4:36PM ET) // optional claiming // 1-1/16 miles (turf)
8 – Myamanoi (23%W)
1 – Flowmotion (19% W)
4 – Jolting Joe (14% W)
3 – Starship Aramis (11% W) *main track only*
Notable: The 23% win rate for Myamanoi is lowest among all top choices in today’s Stronach 5. This appears a good race by the numbers and on paper to spread your tickets. Myamanoi was a good fourth over this course in the Dania Beach Stakes this spring and lures local leading rider Luis Saez. Flowmotion has strong local form for high-percentage connections.
Gulfstream Race 10 (5:06PM ET) // claiming // 1-1/16 miles (turf)
5 – Small Hope (26% W)
13 – Scar (20% W) *main track only*
9 – Captain D (12% W)
12 – Let’s Play Hardball (8% W)
Notable: Top choice Small Hope’s trainer Kent Sweezey has been on a roll in South Florida the past few months, and won both races he entered opening day Wednesday. With 1/ST BET’s second choice Scar entered for main-track only, there’s a wide swath between Small Hope and the rest. Morning line favorite Let’s Play Hardball figures to be a major underlay based on the algorithm, and won easily last out on dirt while now going back to turf. Longshot seekers give Captain D (20-1 ML) a longer look for an exotics share.
Larger Budget Stronach 5 Ticket
5,8 with 5,6 with 6,3,8 with ALL with 5 = $96
Smaller Budget Stronach 5 Ticket
5 with 5,6 with 6 with ALL with 5 = $16