by Jeremy Plonk
December 16, 2020
Los Alamitos features a $145,798 carryover in the traditional $2 pick six as its racing week opens Thursday. Whether you’re a regular to the circuit or dropping by for the carryover, the 1/ST BET app can help you bridge the gap with a data-driven process.
Selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.
Xpressbet and 1/ST handicapper Jeremy Plonk provides his human insights to the AI picks for Los Al’s Thursday pick six sequence (official track morning line odds listed for each selection).
RACE 4 (4:58PM ET) // CLAIMING // 5 1/2 FURLONGS
#2 Well Done Sally (7/2) // 20% Win
#12 Pasito (5/2) // 13% Win
#5 Glitter Gulch (10/1) // 12% Win
#1 Apache Pass (4/1) // 12% Win
Jeremy’s Take: Well Done Sally finished second over this track and distance in her only try locally and exits a Golden Gate maiden breaker. Trainer Jonathan Wong’s high-percentage barn has underperformed at the Los Al meet (3-for-23) so far. Favorites are 3-14 (21%) in claiming sprints at the meet, so feel free to shop. Pasito is on the also-eligible list, but clearly the one to beat if he draws in.
RACE 5 (5:28PM ET) // CLAIMING // 5 FURLONGS
#2 Brilliant Bird (7/2) // 32% Win
#5 Give Me a Hint (6/1) // 17% Win
#9 Purdue (5/2) // 17% Win
#8 Luv is All U Need (30/1) // 8% Win
Jeremy’s Take: Brilliant Bird’s 32% Win rate is highest in the pick six races today, and the 15-point spread between first and second choice also is the largest of the sequence. According to the 1/ST BET app, this is the race to single Brilliant Bird. This mare had solid dirt form at Emerald Downs before moving to the synthetic at Golden Gate. Favorites are 3-14 (21%) in claiming sprints at the meet, the only hesitation. Speedster Purdue will be the target; few are faster early at this level.
RACE 6 (5:58PM ET) // CLAIMING // 1 MILE
#11 Aotearoa (6/1) // 25% Win
#2 Black Storm (4/1) // 14% Win
#5 Fabozzi (7/2) // 13% Win
#10 Implicity (6/1) // 11% Win
Jeremy’s Take: Aotearoa is on the also-eligible list and compromised from the post position if lucky enough to draw into the race. Fabozzi has absolutely no excuses on the class drop under hot-riding Juan Hernandez, and some of his best races have been the mile trip. Black Storm rallied to win a 2019 claimer at Los Al over 6-1/2 furlongs. Also consider Sizzling Jamie, whose trainer Isidro Tamayo is one of the hottest at the meet (25% Wins, $2.06 ROI for every $1 bet).
RACE 7 (6:28PM ET) // CLAIMING // 1 MILE
#11 Red Bunting (9/2) // 25% Win
#8 Info’s Treasure (4/1) // 14% Win
#6 Kayda (12/1) // 13% Win
#1 Bella Figura (7/2) // 11% Win
Jeremy’s Take: Red Bunting is on the also-eligible list and has yet to try dirt, so even if her trainer Isidro Tamayo is one of the hottest at the meet (25% Wins, $2.06 ROI for every $1 bet), that’s a tall order if she draws in while wide. Lukewarm morning line favorite Bella Figura has never run on dirt and her jockey is ice-cold at the meet. This race may be asking for a nice price. Info’s Treasure is by sire Informed, whose offspring have performed commendably on the Los Al surface, according to the Betmix database. On the pedigree angle, be aware of Heart River, by outstanding local sire Include (23% wins by his offspring, $1.13 ROI for every $1 bet).
RACE 8 (6:58PM ET) // CLAIMING // 5 FURLONGS
#5 Captain Scotty (5/2) // 25% Win
#6 Oil Can Knight (6/1) // 17% Win
#2 Mr. Lovejoy (4/1) // 16% Win
#7 Sweet River Baines (8/1) // 15% Win
Jeremy’s Take: Given the small field of 7, many pick six players will limit combos here and take a stand. The algorithm dismisses Blackout, the 3-1 second morning line choice, at just 10% Win chance. I’m not so bullish on tossing Blackout, even if that runner has been a turf performer. His Peter Miller barnmate Captain Scotty is the morning line chalk and a solid selection from 1/ST BET. He very well could be the single, but I want both Millers on my ticket.
RACE 9 (7:28PM ET) // MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT // 5 1/2 FURLONGS
#2 Squared Shady (8/5) // 19% Win
#12 Complete Control (5/2) // 15% Win
#3 Always for Money (10/1) // 14% Win
#4 Sircat Nelly (8/1) // 8% Win
Jeremy’s Take: Favorites are hitting a strong 44% at the meet in maiden races. Couple that with Squared Shady being the shortest-priced morning line chalk in the sequence. Complete Control is on the also-eligible list and looks like the only experienced runner who could warm up Squared Shady. If looking for more coverage, Zu Zu Flynn debuts for a Steve Miyadi barn that’s the hottest at the meet (29% wins, $3.19 ROI for every $1 bet). The 1/ST BET app underscores first-time starters because of their lack of data points to process. Also consider first-timer Amazen Grazen for an Ed Moger Jr. barn with 12-1 and 14-1 upsets at the meet from just 5 starters.