by Johnny D
January 7, 2021
Playing Gulfstream Park’s Rainbow Six is gambling. So is writing an analysis of the wager on a Thursday morning. By Saturday, when the time comes for a mandatory payout of the Rainbow Six pool, the cupboard could be bare. Some fortunate (read: selfish) soul could already have emptied the till with a single winning ticket Thursday or Friday--before we get a chance to divvy it up among ourselves.
That misstep aside, below you will find Rainbow Six analysis and a suggested ticket. Now, what are the chances that yours truly can deliver a cut and dried $32 winning Rainbow Six ticket to your doorstep? Not great. You see, picking six consecutive winners is a bit like climbing Everest. It happens, more often than you think, but the journey’s wet, cold and it’s difficult to breath. Which sounds a lot like my experience when I recently built a snowman for my granddaughter.
The probability that this writer will ‘cold cock’ a winning Rainbow Six ticket for you below is small. That’s why we include analysis of other horses in the races besides those listed on the ticket. Perhaps, as you construct a personal Rainbow Six, you will mix and match contenders from among those included in the analysis and ones appearing as ticket selections. Plus, along the way Saturday, there are lots of other GP wagers and Week 2 of Xpressbet’s Beat the Host competition you might be interested in, so the analysis is meant to aid in those ventures.
There’s always the possibility that the winning Rainbow combination might include a runner or (heaven forbid) two that aren’t addressed in either space. That possibility exists because the game is gambling and in gambling crazy things happen all the time. That’s why cavemen invented odds. How else were they going to get fellow cavemen to bet against the T. Rex?
As long as the odds match the gamble, we’re good. In the case of mandatory pool payouts, we’re good. In other words, it’s the right time to play. The shoe is fat with aces, tens and face cards. Double up your wagers because, for one of the rare times in your life, the odds are in your favor (sort of). We still have to solve the puzzle, of course. But, Saturday, there doesn’t need to be just one winner to trigger bells, whistles, sirens and clanging coins in a complete jackpot payout. If we go six-for-six, we’ll all share in the bounty.
However, make sure to wear your snowshoes. It’s a tough climb.
RACE 6 (2:44PM ET) // CLAIMING // 5 FURLONGS (TURF)
Proceedings begin with a five-furlong turf sprint for $20k claimers, non-winners of 2. These races always are a challenging lot to handicap partly because players must decide what to do with class droppers. Are connections looking to steal a purse, or are they having a personal fire sale, hoping the discount will attract buyers? #4 Henni Penny is an example of a complicated class dropper with a trainer, jockey and circuit change to boot.
#1 Mo Me Mo My is one of 4 in here that exit the same race—a Dec. 23 heat at the same level, distance and surface. 3 of the 4 finished within 2 lengths that afternoon. Overall, it appears to have been a below-par heat for the level. This 5-year-old mare is just 1-15 and comes from off the pace. She was fourth, beaten 2 lengths in the common race. Her lone tally came Sept. 2, 2019 going 5 furlongs on turf at Del Mar. She also faced better company at Saratoga and Belmont and didn’t perform poorly. She races from off the pace.
#2 Sweetsweetsweet set the pace in the Dec. 23 common race and blew a clear lead late to be third. She’s a lightly raced 5-year-old, so she deserves a bit more attention than others with many more losing tries. Also, her speed makes her dangerous. There’s not much other speed in here and she could get a breather early. Although mostly known for his work while closing late on turf Jockey Julian Leparoux is an excellent speed rider.
#4 Henni Penny is a new face, arriving from the NYRA circuit. She was beaten 2 ½ lengths last out in October at Belmont over yielding turf against $40k non-winners of 2. This is a considerable drop in class. The 4-year-old changes hands from trainer David Donk to Kathleen O’Connell—and she is 8% with new arrivals. A significant jockey switch finds Irad Ortiz aboard. Can’t live with her and can’t live without her. She comes from off the pace.
#6 La Cara Bonita is just 1 for 11, is a 4-year-old filly and has familiar partner Luis Saez up. This filly’s been close in 7 of 11 starts and has been a popular claim at this level and below. A year ago she had some early speed.
#7 Chikaka was second in the Dec. 23 common race and finished well from next to last early. That was the 5-year-old mare’s first try at this lower level. Her lone win in 9 starts came at GPW going 7 ½ furlongs in Nov. ’19. She comes from far back.
#9 Just Smok’n is a 4-year-old filly taking a significant class drop and will be offered first time for a tag. She hasn’t raced since April when 6th in an optional Claiming $50k/non-winners other than. She hasn’t been fast enough before to win this and her trainer is just 0-2 off long layoffs.
RACE 7 (3:15PM ET) // MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT // 1 MILE (DIRT)
A one-mile maiden race for 3-year-olds is the next hill to climb and the field of 12 offers several attractive options. Top trainer Todd Pletcher (30%) has 2 in here, as does Chad Brown (19%), joined by a runner from Hall-of-Fame conditioner Bill Mott’s (19%) barn. Conventional wisdom suggests the winner will come from that grouping. If you have access to any workout information, here’s a great place to make use of it.
# 1 Jungle Cry is a new face from Laurel. The colt closed big ground as 5/2 favorite after a poor start last out in only try. New trainer Jose Corrales is 25% with runners first time in his barn.
#2 First Task is a first-time starter from the Todd Pletcher barn. Brought $725k at Keeneland. Luis Saez rides (23% combo). Son of Uncle Mo has a get-to-the-point work tab with just one 5-furlong breeze in 1:01. Must respect trainer/jock combo and barn that’s 19% with first-time starters.
#3 Simovitch was a well-beaten 2nd last out Dec. 12, this track, level and distance, so has a fitness edge. Was colt’s third start. Trainer Mott’s been hot this meet (19%).
#4 Emperor’s Cause goes 2 fair sprint efforts to a one-turn route for low-profile trainer William Mathews and switches from an apprentice to journeyman L. Reyes (9%). Last raced Dec. 26, so is fit.
#5 Bracken is the other Todd Pletcher starter making his second lifetime out. Was a troubled and well beaten 2nd behind return winner Prime Factor. Trainer is 22% second time out. Jockey John Velasquez replaces Jose Ortiz (who re-rides #3 Simovitch). Two decent works since raced.
#6 Sound Money makes third start for trainer Chad Brown and has Tyler Gaffalione up again (29% combo). He had a defective gate issue first out and closed big ground late, then was favored and didn’t fire in Churchill slop. Has to turn it around.
#9 Seminole Beach closed big ground to miss by a head going 7 furlongs in slop at Keeneland in October.
#10 Eye of Horus is a second Wilkes runner that adds blinkers after hesitating at the start of his first race in November in Churchill slop. He has a nice 1:00 4/5 breeze 12/31.
#11 Rosenquist makes debut for Chad Brown and jockey Irad Ortiz (23% combo) off a steady series of works at Payson. Son of Uncle Mo brought $750k at Keeneland sale.
RACE 8 (3:46PM ET) // OPTIONAL CLAIMING // 5 FURLONGS (TURF)
This is the race for you, if you love a challenge and what horseplayer in his right mind doesn’t? BTW, let me know if you ever locate a horseplayer in his right mind. Five furlongs on the turf for optional claiming $25k/non-winner other than. There’s a solid single in here…or not. Check it out below. Good luck.
#1 Silvery Enough is a solid late runner with acceptable dirt form. Can he handle turf and close to be up in time. Saez rides for Hess (22% combo).
#3 Henry’s Word has Lopez/O’Connell combo (22%) on his side following wire-to-wire win at lower level. Needs more in here.
#4 Long Blade goes for Maker/Gaffalione combo (24%). Was claimed for $25k before new owners took a shot in the CC Express. Has speed and 3 wins in 10 GP turf starts, as well as 6 wins in 11 tries at the distance. Has enough speed to be in contention.
#6 Big Drink of Water starts for trainer Larry Rivelli and jockey Victor Lebron. They are an amazing 33% in 40 mounts together. This 5-year-old went wire-to-wire in a $35k beaten race Dec. 17 and drops in claiming price off that sparkling effort. He’s either a single or a toss. No wonder Rivelli is hitting at 28% overall and is 2 for 4 at GP this meet. He’s playing hardball here.
#8 Bourbon Currency is notable because he as 5 seconds in 7 GP turf starts; he’s also been second 4 times out of 7 tries at the distance. He’s never raced at this lower-class level, so he could be a threat. He doesn’t have any early speed, so he’ll have to come from behind under Jose Ortiz--28% combo with trainer John Kimmel.
#12 Freewheeler is a 4-year-old New York bred making his first GP start. Winner first out in a Saratoga NY state bred maiden race at five and one-half furlongs on turf, this colt tried the Gr. 3 Futurity next out and was second to the capable Four Wheel Drive. Those efforts suggest this colt has some ability and he has been competitive with fellow NY breds at the first allowance condition. He could fit here.
RACE 9 (4:17PM ET) // STARTER ALLOWANCE // 7 FURLONGS (DIRT)
Interesting 7-furlong sprint has attracted 8 runners for a $16k starter allowance.
#1 Secret Touch has been a popular claim (3 out of last 4 starts) in California and makes first start her for bi-coastal Bob Hess barn. The 7-year-old has a solid record and appears to fit in this spot. He’s mostly routed lately.
#2 South Sea was claimed last out for $12,500—the lowest level of his career. New barn is 20% with 1st claim runners. Only 1 for 8 at Gulfstream and 0-6 at the distance are concerns.
#3 Joe Di Baggio has a great name (dam Baggio) and has a solid record at this track and distance. Paco Lopez, who has won on his before, is back aboard for 17% trainer David Carlos.
#4 Uptown Classic has been runner-up in his last four starts, including in the Claiming Crown Rapid Transit—a common race to four others in this field! Off any of his recent efforts he looks tough in here. He has 2 seconds in 3 starts at GP and just 2 wins, 6 places and one third in 11 tries at the distance.
#6 I’m a G Six hails from the Todd Pletcher stable and will be ridden by Irad Ortiz (35% combo). He ran poorly (wide) in the CC Rapid Transit—his first start for Pletcher off a claim for $62,500—but the trainer wheels him back in just over a month and top jock Ortiz rides him back. He also has a 48 work Jan. 1 at Palm Beach Downs. Good signs for a rebound.
#8 All Around also looks for redemption after a poor effort in the CC Rapid Transit. He’s got a sterling record at GP with 3 wins in 5 starts. Top jock Luis Saez takes over for trainer Luis Ramirez (0-10 this meet) and will need to perfectly time this guy’s late kick.
RACE 10 (4:49PM ET) // G3 TROPICAL TURF S. // 1 MILE (TURF)
Always nice to spice up a Rainbow Six mandatory payout card with a grassy graded stakes race. The Grade 3 Tropical Turf at one mile has attracted 9 runners, including the defending champ among a trio of 8-year-old performers.
#1 Admissions Office is a 6-year-old that’s 0-4 over the GP turf course. He comes from far back and needs everything to go his way. He’s a big horse that can’t get stopped. He’s also been away since June, so he might need a race.
#2 Casa Creed has won just 3 of 16, but he’s faced Gr. 1 foes in his last 3 starts. This race should provide some class relief for the Gr. 2 winner at 3. Now 5, he hasn’t won since August of ’19 and was 0-5 in 2020.
#3 Ride a Comet has won 7 of 12 starts and was 2-for-2 in 2020. The multiple Gr. 2 winner did not race in 2019, so you know the 6-year-old is talented but tender. He’s posted 2 turf bullets at Palm Meadows for this race: a 59 (best of 20) and a 59 1/5 (best of 22), so it would seem he’s healthy. He’s unbeaten at the mile turf distance and has never raced at Gulfstream Park for ice cold trainer Mark CAsse (3-34).
#5 Frostmourne ran away and hid from foes in an optional claimer at Churchill in November. He’ll try the same tactics in here but should get some heat from defending champ #7 Tusk. Frostmourne had success at age 3 and is a Gr. 2 and Gr. 3 winner. That was long ago for the 7-year-old but he’s 1 for 2 over GP turf and 4 for 6 at the distance.
#6 Analyze It hails from the Chad Brown barn and, if the race is on turf, that barn is deadly. This 6-year-old has won 4 of 10 starts and is 3 for 6 at the distance. He’s never raced over GP turf but he’s been enough places so that shouldn’t matter. He’s a very steady performer that’s just missed in several Gr. 1 events, including the BC Mile in ’18. He did not race in ’19. He’s the one to beat.
#7 Tusk is the defending champ and he’s only had one race since winning the previous edition of this race in Jan. ’20. Is he the same horse that he was then? Jockey Gaffalione, who rode Tusk to that Tropical Turf victory is on #3 Ride a Comet. He will be suitably replaced by Luis Saez here. Trainer Saffie Joseph (18%) will need to have this guy at his previous best for him to have a say in here at age 8.
RACE 11 (5:21PM ET) // MAIDEN CLAIMING // 1 MILE (TURF)
Let’s wind this whole thing up with a one-mile turf maiden $25k claimer for 3-year-old fillies. Normally, these can be grab bag events but this one doesn’t seem as challenging (famous last words).
#1 Time Sensitive, claimed in Oct. for $40k and tried once at the maiden allowance level, drops for a money run. Jockey C. A. Torres is replaced by Saez. This 3-year-old filly moved inside from post 11 out of 11 two back and post 9 of 12 when overmatched last out. She’s got some speed, the rail, Saez, and a capable trainer. She’s the one to beat.
#3 Grey Charlotte dropped to this level from maiden $50k last out and overcame a wide trip to show some interest late. That’s noteworthy from a filly who finished second sprinting first out as favorite. Could be more in the tank for Barboza/Zayas combo (29%). Trainer having a rough season with 5 seconds, 5 thirds and just 1 win from 22 starts.
#6 Faith’s a Bluebird had trouble first out and drops as trainer switches to 24% winning jock combo. Would be a longshot stab.
#7 Our Ten Angles showed some life early in last race and then faded. Switch to turf in attempt to wake the filly up. Would surprise.
#9 Smarty Queen was lukewarm favorite last out for $35k going 7 ½ furlongs on grass. She ran poorly. Barn looks to jockey Irad Ortiz (60% combo with 5 tries) to wake this filly up. She did finish second at one mile on turf at GPW for $40k in Oct.
#11 Not Tonight Baby ran better last out when dropped to this level for trainer Jane Cibelli. Jockey Saez presumably vacates to ride #1 Time Sensitive. Corey Lanerie in the saddle for this filly who needs to improve quite a bit to threaten.
20-CENT RAINBOW 6 TICKET
Race 6: 2, 4
Race 7: 2, 3, 5, 11
Race 8: 6
Race 9: 1, 3, 4, 6, 8
Race 10: 2, 3, 5, 6
Race 11: 1
Ticket Cost: $32.00 for 20-cents