by Jeremy Plonk
February 5, 2021
Santa Anita offers a mandatory payout in Saturday’s Rainbow 6 jackpot, and track officials estimate more than $5 million in the pool if the wager isn’t solved on Friday. No matter the carryover situation, it will be a mandatory payout Saturday. Let’s dig into the artificial intelligence of the 1/ST BET app for a deeper dive into Races 5-10 on the card, and help create those 20-cent base wagers.
Selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. We’ve included the official track morning line odds with the selections.
RACE 5 (5:08PM ET) // MAIDEN CLAIMING // 6-1/2 FURLONGS
#1 SMOOTHLIKEBUTTAH (7-2) // 33% Win
#3 ALLERGIC TO LOGIC (4-1) // 13% Win
#7 HERE COMES RALPHIE (30-1) // 10% Win
#11 HALF HOPING (8-1) // 7% Win
Notes: The 1/ST BET app’s top play in the Rainbow 6 comes right from the start with SMOOTHLIKEBUTTAH, whose 33% win projection is the highest in the sequence. This one also has a 20-point spread over the second choice, largest in the Rainbow 6 today. It’s psychologically challenging to put all your multi-race eggs into a single in the opening leg, but remember it pays the same ($0) whether you bust in any race. If you trust the pick, don’t let a defensive mindset alter your ticket construction.
RACE 6 (5:42PM ET) // ALLOWANCE // 1-1/8 MILES (TURF)
#2 GREGDAR (8-1) // 19% Win
#7 GAUGUIN (8-1) // 17% Win
#5 THREE AY EM (5-1) // 15% Win
#6 WHISPER NOT (9-5) // 15% Win
Notes: Balanced race based on the AI picks as strong 9-5 morning line favorite WHISPER NOT does not possess as much support with the algorithm as his price suggests. His excellent third in the Grade 2 Mathis Brothers Mile at 5-2 odds indicates a short price looms; but he was defeated in his prior race at this same class level. That lends some credence to the urge to shop. The AI puts Phil D’Amato and Neil Drysdale trainees in the top slots, and you could do a lot worse at those prices in Santa Anita turf races.
RACE 7 (6:14PM ET) // GRADE 2 SAN VICENTE STAKES // 7 FURLONGS
#6 CONCERT TOUR (8-5) // 32% Win
#2 THE CHOSEN VRON (5-2) // 23% Win
#1 FREEDOM FIGHTER (5-2) // 23% Win
#4 UNCLE BOOGIE (12-1) // 14% Win
Notes: Expect price on CONCERT TOUR to be shorter than the morning line. 1/ST BET gives him second-best win projection of any horse in today’s Rainbow 6, but just a somewhat surprising 9-point spread over the second and third choices. CONCERT TOUR very likely will be the most ‘singled’ horses on Rainbow 6 tickets today, so beating him would be a huge boost to the potential payoff … but it may not be easy.
RACE 8 (6:46PM ET) // GRADE 3 THUNDER ROAD STAKES // 1 MILE (TURF)
#5 CAMPAIGN (8-1) // 22% Win
#1 SOMBEYAY (4-1) // 15% Win
#7 BOB AND JACKIE (5-2) // 15% Win
#8 HEMBREE (7-2) // 14% Win
Notes: Classy dirt performer CAMPAIGN also has run well on his second surface, turf, and that’s the assignment here while returning from an 11-month break. The AI indicates it’s even-Steven underneath its top choice. Morning line favorite BOB AND JACKIE is in that mix, but has no decided distinction from several of these, according to the algorithm. Getting some extra coverage in this race makes sense based on the numbers as well as how some of the other races of the Rainbow 6 shape up more defined.
RACE 9 (7:20PM ET) // CLAIMING // 6-1/2 FURLONGS
#9 SQUALATORO (6-1) // 20% Win
#5 MORE BUBBLY (8-1) // 17% Win
#12 BOB’S SNIPER (15-1) // 11% Win
#11 DAPPER (15-1) // 11% Win
Notes: #4 PRINCE RICKY is right on the cusp at 10% while the top pair of choices in the morning line (both coming off of poor finishes) are not in the algorithm’s mix. This looks like a good race to spread and try to land a nice price. Budget-minded players could accept the risk and use just the top pair as there’s some separation below that, but you’re cutting out some longshot juicy prices in doing so.
RACE 10 (7:52PM ET) // MAIDEN CLAIMING // 6 FURLONGS (TURF)
#2 AADHANA (4-1) // 27% Win
#8 AGREETODISAGREE (7-2) // 14% Win
#3 SHOUT IT OUT (12-1) // 12% Win
#11 RAGGED ROSE (6-1) // 9% Win
Notes: The 13-point spread between the top 2 choices is the second-largest in the Rainbow 6 today, and it’s significant given the capacity field size in this race. A bold single of Aadhana can separate you from many tickets that will spread deeper defensively, thus increasing the number of losing tickets.