by Jeff Siegel
April 10, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
View Santa Anita Daily Workout Report
View Lexington Stakes-G3 Video Analysis
View Arkansas Deerby-G1 Video Analysis
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 6-Littlebidamedal; 4-Posterize
Forecast: Littlebitamedal and Posterize meet again after finishing one-two in a recent starter’s allowance ($25,000) affair over this track and distance last month. ‘Medal is a prototype late-running sprinter and got plenty of help up front to compliment his style in that victory but today’s pace flow may not be so favorable and that, coupled with a small a two pound shift in the weights, could bring the two together. These will be the two main players in this six-runner affair for $40,000 older sellers so we’ll pass the race but include both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 2: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Lone Scout; 5-Papale
Forecast: Lone Scout is improving with racing and shows speed figures moving in the right direction, so we’ll put the son of Tonalist on top in this maiden optional claiming miler that attracted just five entrants. He’s back on the main track and his pedigree suggests he’ll be more comfortable on dirt, so with the switch back to J. J. Hernandez the R. B. Hess, Jr.-trained colt appears capable of producing the last run. Papale actually finished first in a race last November but was disqualified, so he’s still a maiden. The Frosted gelding retains F. Prat, shows a sharp recent half mile workout, and is another with numbers that have steadily risen in recent outings. These are the two we’ll be including in our rolling exotics with a slight preference on top to Lone Scout.
RACE 3: Post: 2:08 PT Grade: X
Use: 2-Gerlach’s; 4-Luckys Last Stand
Forecast: Luckys Last Stand is listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite in this five-runner maiden claiming abbreviated sprint for state-bred sophomores and on paper looks even shorter than that. In the frame in both of his career starts and five lengths clear of the rest when narrowly missing in a similar event last month, the son of Lucky Pulpit really won’t have to improve much at all to handle this modest task. Gerlach’s may be a bit better than shown and represents a bit of a danger from off the pace. He’s probably worth including on a ticket or two as a back-up but the main push should go the Luckys Last Stand.
RACE 4: Post: 2:41 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Stormin Ranger; 6-Your Royal Coil
Forecast: Your Royal Coil, first off the claim for A. Lerner and waiver protected in her first outing since August, returns with blinkers on, a comfortable outside post, and a work tab that should have her fit and ready. Her previous form over the Santa Anita main track was strong and consistent, so we’re expecting the daughter of Coil to be extremely well-meant in this restricted seller for $20,000 claiming fillies and mares. We’ll also toss in Stormin Ranger, also returning off a layoff from last summer and waiver protected for A. Kitchingman, whose record with comebackers in a small sample is outstanding. The work tab at San Luis Rey Downs should have her plenty fit, so if she can avoid trouble from the rail the daughter of U S Ranger will be heard from late. Your Royal Coil gets the edge on top but both should be used in rolling exotic play.
RACE 5: Post: 3:15 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Moon Mischief; 5-Prince Magician
Forecast: Prince Magician drops to his lowest level ever in this maiden $25,000 claiming sprint and has speed figurers that are better than par for this level. He’s already had nine chances and therefore may not be one to trust, but if shows up with his best stuff the H. Palma-trained colt will be right there, especially with the switch to J. J. Hernandez. Moon Mischief is another class dropper with a big look and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. The switch to F. Prat is significant as is the addition of blinkers, so as the 9/5 morning line favorite the J. Sadler-trained son of Into Mischief is clearly the one to beat.
RACE 6: Post: 2:48 PT Grade: X
Use: 1-Exaulted; 4-Colt Fiction
Forecast: The 6/5 morning line favorite Exaulted is most effective as a late-running sprinter and gets ideal conditions in this entry-level allowance extended dash. A good third vs. considerably stronger in the San Carlos H.-G2 over this track and distance last time out, the son of Twirling Candy has finished in the money in all five of his starts over the Santa Anita main oval and with good racing luck from the rail should be along in time. For protection, you may want to have a back-up ticket that includes Colt Fiction. The W. Spawr-trained gelding is fairly fast on speed figures and has a good stalking style that makes him ideally suited for this seven furlong trip.
RACE 7: Post: 4:19 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Conquest Cobra; 6-Colosi
Forecast: Conquest Cobra is double-jumped in class in a sign of confidence after a highly-rated win vs. $12,500 foes here last month. F. Prat stays aboard and should have this tough-as-nails gelding in a good stalking spot, ready to pounce when called upon. Colosi is another class riser in good form, though his recent speed figures aren’t quite to the level that ‘Cobra has been producing. The City Zip gelding is stretching out again and projects to be forwardly placed throughout with clear sailing outside. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then have a few extra tickets keying Conquest Cobra on top,
RACE 8: Post: 4:51 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Lambeau; 3-Charlito; 7-Bold Endeavor
Forecast: Here’s a fairly competitive second-level allowance main track miler that requires a bit of a spread in rolling exotic play. Bold Endeavor is racing in razor sharp form and will be tough if he can add another strong race to the string. Worn down late over this track and distance last time out when almost four lengths clear of the others, the Bernardini gelding has a good stalking style that should produce a clean journey and with the switch to F. Prat the M. Glatt-trained veteran is the one to beat. Lambeau, away since last July, has run well fresh in the past and his recent workouts should have him fit enough. He’s most effective on the front end and seems likely to employ gate-to-wire tactics. Charlito is a progressive type fresh from a nice allowance win vs. lesser here in late February and with good workouts in the interim. With another forward move, the son of Feb Biz will be right there.
RACE 9: Post: 5:23 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Big Al’s Princess; 5-Ensleys Dream; 9-Kind But She Lies
Forecast: Big Al’s Princess produced a good forward move when a game runner-up in her second career start last month and if she can improve again the V. Garcia-trained filly should be capable of earning her diploma in this modest maiden claiming sprint for sophomore fillies. Assuming she breaks well from the rail, the daughter of Bionetti could find herself as the controlling speed. Ensleys Dream adds blinkers for the first time after displaying early speed before fading as the favorite in a tougher maiden $50,000 event here in early March. She should stick better with these and has previous speed figures that put her right there. Kind But She Lies drops in class, shortens up, and returns to the main track. Look for her to be running on late.