by Jeff Siegel
April 18, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 2-You Wanna Ear Rip; 3-Gotta Be Lucky; 7-Odessa
Forecast: Bottom-rung claiming fillies and mares meet over a mile in the Sunday opener. There are too many question marks to allow for a strong opinion, so we will triple the race in our rolling exotics – you may find the need to go deeper - but otherwise pass. Odessa is a genuine and consistent Bay Area invader from a high percentage outfit that prefers the front end but can stalk and win if the race flow dictates. She missed by a head at 40 cents on the dollar in her only prior race over conventional dirt; all of her other starts came on grass or synthetic. You Wanna Ear Rip, first-off-the-claim for G. Stute, stretches out for the first time and has sprint speed figures that make her competitive. On pedigree, she should be able to handle two turns and projects to be favorably placed saving ground behind the first flight. Gotta Be Lucky just outran a restricted $12,500 field last month and today faces open $10,000 foes in what is arguably a tougher assignment. She got loose on the lead through crawling fractions and held sway but will have no such advantage in this event. On the positive side, she has been first or second in five of 10 career outings over the local main track.
RACE 2: Post: 1:38 PT Grade: B+
Use: 2-Curvette; 4-Sharapova
Forecast: Sharapova ran extremely well when pressing the pace and then staying on well to be third in a competitive event in her debut over this track and distance last month. The daughter of Outwork has been impressive in the morning since that race and can be expected to produce a significant forward move with that bit of experience behind her. Additionally, the P. Eurton barn has terrific stats with the second time starter angle. Curvette is a debuting daughter of Curlin from the B. Baffert barn with a series of sharp drills on her resume. The stable hits at an amazing 30% with its first timers so we expect her to be live and well-meant. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to very promising Sharapova.
RACE 3: Post: 2:12 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Tizamagician; 5-Zestful
Forecast: This year’s renewal of the 12-furlong, main track Tokyo City Cup-G3 attracted just five starters, two of which can be regarded as the main players. Zestful is as committed front runner and surely will try gate-to-wire tactics while Tizamagican has on occasion shown a willingness to settle behind a front-runner and then rally, so that is how we expect this race to unfold. Tizamagician exits better races and was second – albeit a distant second – in this race last year behind a better horse (Cupid’s Claws) than Zestful so we will put him on top. Zestful has proven to be more comfortable on grass or synthetic but if he is left alone, he may never look back. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
RACE 4: Post: 2:45 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Jazzique; 6-Rakassah
Forecast: Rakassah got hooked into a speed duel in her recent comeback, disposed of her pace rival entering the lane, but then paid the price for her early efforts and wound up second in a sharp try over this course last month in a similar event. She has trained well since, so we are expecting a forward move from the Irish-bred filly, especially if she can settle off the pace and then produce a late run. Jazzique, away since last July, makes her California debut for new trainer M. McCarthy and we know she can fire fresh (she won her debut), and we know she can sprint on turf (she is 1-for-1 under these conditions). The daughter of Kingman has been given a solid foundation in the morning to be fit and ready and will be running on strongly late. These are the two we will be using in our rolling exotics with Rakassah receiving top billing.
RACE 5: Post: 3:17 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Alcools; 2-Promise Nothing; 5-Rebel Way
Forecast: Rebel Way looks properly spotted in this extended sprint for restricted (nw-3) $20,000 older claimers. He is making his second start off a long layoff for a barn that has solid stats with this angle, and after finishing second while almost four lengths clear of the rest the son of In Summation can outrun this field if he can produce a similar performance. With six weeks in between races he has likely had sufficient rest to repeat that effort. Alcools has the blinkers off maneuver that we like and goes for the always-lethal P. Miller/F. Prat trainer/jockey team (35%), so he is a major player on these two angles alone. Also, he is turning back from a two-turn event and just earned a career top speed figure when third at this level last month. Promise Nothing drops to a realistic level after failing to be competitive in a starter’s allowance race in his first start off a claim last month. Though he is one above his conditions (he’s only won once) the D. Azcarate-trained gelding is a fit on numbers and will be running on late.
RACE 6: Post: 3:49 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Mr. Impossible; 3-Cali Bay; 7-Myopic
Forecast: Cali Bay makes his U.S. debut in this better-than-par maiden turf sprint for 3-year-olds and has trained like the goods for a barn that excels with European imports. Fourth of 14 in his only outing in Ireland last fall, the Irish-bred colt lands F. Prat and looks extremely well-meant based on the ability he is displayed when outworking older quality horses leading up to this race. Mr. Impossible has shown good dirt form in a series of hot races, but with Shamardal on the bottom side of his pedigree he has every right to be just as good if not better on grass. Today we will find out is turf, indeed, is his preferred surface. Myopic is a fast-working first-timer from the B. Baffert barn with a good enough foundation to be ready for a major effort. The son of Candy Ride has plenty of early speed but can finish as well based on what he has shown in the morning. It will be interesting to see if he is sent or grabbed at the start, but in any case, he is a “must use.”
RACE 7: Post: 4:21 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Mucho Del Oro; 2-Bob Daniels; 3-Rookie Year; 7-K P Silver Bullet
Forecast: This maiden-claiming six furlong sprint featuring several class droppers and is a messy affair requiring heavy usage in rolling exotic play. Mucho Del Oro was virtually eased in his debut two-turning against a tough maiden special weight field, but he has retuned to work extremely well from the gate, so we are willing to give him another chance. The turn back in trip combined with the class drop could make all the difference in the world, so we will make him a gamble at 10-1 on the morning line. Bob Daniels is another showing the always-dangerous maiden to maiden claiming class drop and has speed figures that make him a solid fit in this league. We will consider the break in the weights with the switch to bug girl E. Ellingwood a plus as well. K P Silver Bullet has trained okay for his debut and “okay” makes him a threat at this level. Based on what we have seen of him in the morning, the J. Mullins-trained sophomore will be doing his best work late. Rookie Year is yet another showing up in a seller for the first time and is a first-time gelding as well. The P. Miller-trained son of Tapit was out of his element when facing Bezos and others last time out over a mile but this group and this distance should be well within his capabilities, so at 6-1 on the morning line he is worth including as well.
RACE 8: Post: 4:53 PT Grade: X
Single: 4-Brickyard Ride
Forecast: Brickyard Ride is listed as the 3/5 morning line favorite in this year’s four-runner Konda Gold S.-G3 over six and one-half furlongs. On paper, he deserves to be an even shorter price. The son of Clubhouse Ride has won four of his last five starts and five of six career outings over the Santa Anita main track. Additionally, he is easily the controlling speed from a cozy outside draw and based on pure numbers he should dominate as a no-value, rolling exotic single.
RACE 9: Post: 5:25 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Miss Dracarys; 5-Frazzled; 6-Equilove
Forecast: Equilove scored nicely over this course and distance in her U.S. debut last month, has worked well since, and looks capable of scoring right back despite the class hike. The Irish-bred filly overcame a slow start to produce a furious late rally to get up in time, and with a better break today the P. D’Amato-trained filly will be difficult to contain late. Miss Dracarys is lightly-raced with room to improve. Freshened since mid-January, the N. Drysdale-trained filly can be a factor with a repeat of her debut maiden grass sprint win at Aqueduct late last year. Frazzled adds Lasix in her first start since September and shows a recent work tab that should have her plenty fit. She is another that can be expected to be heard from late and at 20-1 on the morning line offers good long shot value in both the horizontal and vertical exotics.