by Jeff Siegel
May 14, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
View Today’s Santa Anita Workout Reports
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Cleopatra’s Strike; 5-Irish Heatwave
Forecast: Irish Heatwave catches a field without any speed, so a front-running trip should be his for the asking. The P. Miller-trained horse remains well above his claim level in a sign of confidence, has recent speed figures that are good enough to beat this field, and is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course. Cleopatra’s Strike hasn’t won since capturing the John Henry S.-G2 over the local lawn in September of 2019 but drops to his lowest level ever, shows a healthy series of good workouts and is reunited with “win rider” A. Cedillo. Despite what projects to be a slowly run affair, the veteran son of Smart Strike can really kick it when he’s on his game and represents the most dangerous of the closing types. We will include both in our rolling exotics while preferring Irish Heatwave on top.
RACE 2: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: B
Single: 4-Your Royal Coil
Forecast: Your Royal Coil, a solid runner-up vs. similar last month in her first outing since August, has trained well since and should produce enough of a forward move to handle this restricted (nw-3) $20,000 claiming field of older fillies and mares. In the frame in five of six career starts over the Santa Anita main track that includes two wins, the A. Lerner-trained mare switches to T. Pereira, who was aboard for both of her victories, and should find herself either on the lead or in a comfortable pace stalking early position. In a five-runner field lacking depth, let’s make her a win play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 3: Post: 2:03 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-One Flew South; 4-Rager; 5-Exultation
Forecast>: This starter’s allowance turf sprint drew six entrants, three of which appear to be legitimate contenders. Rager has produced rising speed figures in each of his last four starts and seems prepared for another forward move after beating a first-level allowance field over this turf course last month despite encountering some early trouble. The Into Mischief gelding should draft into a comfortable second flight, stalking position and then have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. Exultation, in the frame in 11 of 13 career starts and a game winner over this course and distance vs. optional claiming foes in late March, should fire another big shot today for the powerful trainer/jockey combo of P. Eurton and U. Rispoli. The Paynter gelding has good tactical speed and can adjust to any type of race flow. He’s not quite as fast on pure numbers as are top pick, but he’s close. One Flew South didn’t offer a threat in a dirt track sprint two weeks ago but he’s back on grass today and should return to good form. His starter’s allowance score three races back charts quite well with this group and his overall record over the local lawn (in the money in four of five career starts) makes him usable in rolling exotic play.
RACE 4: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Measureofdevotion; 4-Feeling Grazeful; 6-Omg It’s Jessica
Forecast: Feeling Grazeful is bred to win early and has done some very nice work in the a.m. to indicate she can score at first asking in this maiden state-bred filly and mare sprint. With a healthy, steady work tab for W. Spawr that includes a sharp :47 2/5 gate work in late March (see our Santa Anita Workout Report above), the daughter of Grazen looks live and extremely well meant first crack out of the box. Omg It’s Jessica, the best of the known element, adds blinkers and is certain to display good early speed. The daughter of Smiling Tiger gets a break in the weights with the switch to good bug girl J. Pyfer and is the one to fear most. Measureofdevotion, away since the fall of 2019, returns for I. Kruljac with a nice series of drills that includes a bullet five furlong move on the training track in late April that caught the eye (see Workout Report). The daughter of Violence didn’t show a whole lot as a 2-year-old but could easily be a better type this time around.
RACE 5: Post: 3:15 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Enough Nonsense; 4-Epidemic; 6-K P Silver Bullet
Forecast: K P Silver Bullet rallied with interest to finish a respectable second in his debut last month and today returns on the raise for new trainer J. Sadler. The son of Secret Circle has a right to improve with that effort behind him for a barn that excels with the first-off-the-claim angle (18% with a massive ROI). With the change to V. Espinoza and the switch to turf, the son of Secret Circle seems primed for a major effort. Enough Nonsense shows up in a seller for the first time and seems certain to improve against this much softer crew. He has back numbers that are better than par for the level and projects to settle into the second flight and then have his chance to make some noise late. We’ll also toss in Epidemic, far back in his last two starts when facing stakes quality maidens. The son of Orb has enough speed to be worrisome at this maiden $50,000 level.
RACE 6: Post: 3:50 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Itsthattime; 4-California Street
Forecast: California Street hasn’t won since the spring of 2019 but this long overdue drop to the restricted (nw-3) $20,000 claiming level should wake him up. The P. Gallagher-trained gelding switches to U. Rispoli, is a strong fit on speed figures, and shows a prior win over the Santa Anita main track. Itsthattime ran well when second over this track and distance at this level two runs back but then was overmatched in his most recent outing when switched to grass. Back on the main track today and back where he belongs with regards to class, the Strong Mandate gelding gets a slight break in the weights with the switch to bug boy A. Centeno and is guaranteed a good ground-saving trip from the rail. Both of his career victories were accomplished two-turning on this dirt track.
RACE 7: Post: 4:21 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Found My Ball; 6-Standing O
Forecast: Found My Ball was in too tough when a respectable fourth behind The Chosen Vron in the Echo Eddie S. sprinting on the main track last month but today the son of Square Eddie drops to the first-level allowance races, stretches out, and returns to turf. This will be his first try around two turns and we’re expecting that he will handle the extra ground just fine. Standing O is improving racing, and while he didn’t have much behind him when graduating in gate-to-wire fashion last time out the son of Acclamation has trained very well since and seems likely to produce a significant forward move. If he can make the running without pressure, he may prove difficult to catch. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics while preferring Found My Ball on top.
RACE 8: Post: 4:52 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Brilliant Bird; 5-Chollima
Forecast: Chollima just trounced a restricted (nw-3) $20,000 field here last month and is realistically spotted in open $10,000 company while seeking a repeat for a capable Los Alamitos-based outfit. The daughter of Paddy O’Prado projects to be on or near the lead throughout and can score again if she can turn in two alike. Brilliant Bird, in the money in all four of her starts since being claimed by R. Trela, should fire another good shot today. First or second in 15 of 31 career starts including nine wins, the veteran mare can be tough on the lead or when using stalk and pounce tactics. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play with Chollima – based on speed figures – the logical top pick.