by Jeff Siegel
May 22, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Thumps Dream; 6-Styledome
Forecast: Irish invader Thumps Dream was a clever winner of a 14-runner all-weather maiden event at Dundalk in February in just her second career start and has worked like she’s ready to continue her winning ways in her U.S. debut despite facing a stronger-than-par first-level allowance group of sophomore fillies in this one mile turf event. The R. Baltas-trained daughter of Dark Angel should settle into a ground-saving, second-flight early position and then have every chance to accelerate from the quarter pole home. Based on pedigree, there’s no reason she shouldn’t be just as effective on grass. Interestingly, the “other” Baltas in the race, the 9/5 morning line favorite Tetragonal, picks up F. Prat, which could indicate that she’s the barn’s preferred entrant of the two, but that’s an assumption that may not be accurate. Styledome chased the good stakes winning colt Du Jour in her local bow when given a race in late March and then produced a significant forward move when a good closing third, beaten just a length, in the California Oaks at Golden Gate Fields in late April. We’re expecting the P. Gallagher-trained filly to step forward again, and if the race flow is close to standard she should be heard from late. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with a slight preference on top to Thumps Dream.
RACE 2: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: X
Use: 4-Ce Ce; 5-As Time Goes By
Forecast: This four-runner graded stakes for fillies and mares boils down to two main players. You may opt to include both on your rolling exotic ticket, or you could take a stand one way or the other if you have the confidence that you can correctly separate them. As Time Goes By has a bit more tactical speed than chief rival Ce Ce and is faster on speed figures, but she picks up considerable weight off her facile score in the Santa Margarita S.-G2 and will be asked to carry 126 lbs. Meanwhile, Ce Ce gets in with 120 lbs. and if this race were a handicap, they’d be pretty close to even. Both continue to train well and are coming up to the race in peak form. There’s no real money to be made in either case, so we’ll wave the white flag and simply watch and enjoy.
RACE 3: Post: 2:09 PT Grade: B
Use: 5-Honey Jar; 6-Feathers
Forecast: We find it interesting that F. Prat, who guided Honey Jar to a highly-rated and impressive maiden win over the local lawn last month, jumps off the 2-1 morning line favorite to ride the P. Miller-trained San Luis Rey Downs shipper Feathers in this first-level allowance grass dash restricted to 3-year-olds. To make that choice, you’d have to think that Prat’s agent must have gotten a pretty good story. Miller’s filly – an Irish-bred daughter of Zoffany who had an outing off the plane when eighth of nine in the Speakeasy Stakes last September – returns with Lasix, blinkers, and an eye-catching work tab that should have her fit and ready. Additionally, we know she can fire fresh - she won her debut in June of her juvenile season over a testing seven furlongs at Goodwood – so we’ll take the bait and put her on top at 4-1 on the morning line. As for Honey Jar, she produced a significant forward move when graduating in her second start by pressing the pace and then coming away with authority while earning an impressive speed figure. She has to be used somewhere on your ticket.
RACE 4: Post: 2:42 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Octopus; 5-Black Storm
Forecast: We’ll use the first two favorites in this $16,000 claiming sprint for older horses and be surprised if the winner isn’t one or the other. Octopus returns to his claim level for D. O’Neill after chasing home the razor sharp Notre Dame in a much tougher starter’s allowance dash earlier this month and should find this group well within his capabilities. First or second in four of six starts over the Santa Anita main track, the son of Shackleford projects to draft into a comfortable pace-pressing position and then have his chance to exert his superiority when the pressure is turned on. Black Storm is a tough old pro (eight career wins, six over the local main track) and should be included as well, at least as a backup. He’s moving up a notch following a good score vs. $12,500 foes last month and will be running on late.
RACE 5: Post: 3:15 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Cider Apple; 5-Cinnte Winnte; 6-Lookintogeteven; 9-Miss Bella Ciao
Forecast: We’re going to spread four deep in our rolling exotics and eliminate the 9/5 morning line favorite La Gioiosa, who by all rights should be the odds-on favorite based strictly on resume. She’s actually not a maiden – she “won” her second career start in France in a dead heat but got disqualified – and then finished second in the Prix Francois Boutin-G3 at Deauville in an effort that produced a strong 84 Timeform rating. But here’s the thing – she’s an extremely difficult filly to ride with a habit of tossing her head, drifting under pressure, and racing erratically – and we’re not convinced the addition of blinkers will make much of a difference. Against this group of maidens, she could make plenty of mistakes and still win, but there may be gambling value in trying to beat her and that’s what we’ll try to do. Miss Bella Ciao was well-meant in her recent comeback – she had one prior run in November at Del Mar and closed well in a promising effort – but lacked a clear path entering the lane and flattened out a bit late when fourth beaten just over a length in a similar maiden affair at nine furlongs. The daughter of Tapit shortens to a mile and has trained well in the interim, so if she can drop over from her outside draw and secure cover while being held up she could very well produce a winning late kick. At 4-1 on the morning line, we’ll put her on top. Lookintogeteven is a 14-race maiden and certainly not one to trust, but she did finish a good second over this course and distance last time out under F. Prat, who stays aboard, and is likely to make her presence felt from off the pace, Cider Apple strikes us as a one-paced grinder, but she will be dangerous if the pace flow favors her closing style. Look for her to be running on late. Cinnte Winnte is the “other” P. Gallagher entrant in the field. This will be her second U.S. outing and the Irish-bred 4-year-old filly should produce enough of a forward move to at least hit the board at a nice price.
RACE 6: Post: 3:48 PT Grade: C
Use: 1-Queen’s Code; 6-Head for Business; 7-Gone Somewhere; 8-Vaporized
Forecast: This maiden special weight state-bred sprint came up fairly weak, at least among those that have raced. A live first-timer would be nice, but we’re not seeing any world beaters among the newcomers, so you probably should spread as deeply as your budget allows. Queen’s Code shows moderate form in three starts but is the morning line favorite at 2-1 by default. If he breaks cleanly from the rail, the C. Gaines-trained gelding should be forwardly placed throughout. Head for Business flashed speed on turf in his debut before weakening under pressure, but the barn has good stats with second-timers so this son of Boat Trip certainly could stick better today, especially with the addition of blinkers. Gone Somewhere and Vaporized both have shown a bit of ability in a.m. preps and represent stranger danger. In an open fray, you have to use them somewhere.
RACE 7: Post: 4:19 PT Grade: X
Single: 6-Going Global
Forecast: Going Global is unbeaten in three starts over the Santa Anita turf course since arriving from Ireland and there’s every indication that she’s set to fire another big shot in this year’s renewal of the Honeymoon S.-G3. The P. D’Amato-trained filly has enough tactical speed to adjust to any type of pace flow and proved in her most recent start that her superior turn of foot can be just as effective over nine furlong as it is at a flat mile. With regular pilot F. Prat staying aboard, she’s listed at 6/5 on the morning line with the possibility of going lower, so we’ll pass the race other than to make her a short price rolling exotic single.
RACE 8: Post: 4:52 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Cousin Eddie; 3-Catbernay; 9-Shotgun Rider
Forecast: We’ll use three in this maiden $50,000 claiming state-bred sprint but not with a high degree of confidence. Catbernay flashed speed before weakening in his debut at Los Alamitos in December and returns for new trainer K. Mulhall as a first-time Lasix user with a decent series of recent workout to indicate that he could be a better type now. Shotgun Rider has a progressive pattern, as does Cousin Eddie, and both exit the same race in which ‘Rider finished second, a neck in front of ‘Eddie. Preference on top goes to Catbernay – he may have the most potential for improvement – but this is a race we’re not planning on getting too involved in.
RACE 9: Post: 5:26 PT Grade: B+
Single: 7-Rain Diva
Forecast: Although she hasn’t been out since last October, Rain Diva appears ready to extend her winning streak to three in this state-bred first-level allowance sprint following a string of good works that should have her primed and ready. She’s unproven on turf but the daughter of Temple City certainly is bred for the lawn and based on the career top speed figure she earned in her most recent victory she’s fast enough to outrun this group from gate to wire. At 4-1 on the morning line, she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.