by Jeff Siegel
May 29, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: X
Single: 5-The Black Album
Forecast: Ex-stakes performer The Black Album appears to be rounding back into winning form following a solid third place effort in a similar mid-level claiming turf miler, and in a race that projects to have a favorable pace flow for this stretch-running French-bred veteran he should be able to produce a winning late kick. However, he’s listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite for the always-powerful jockey/trainer combo of F. Prat and P. Miller (33%) so you can use him as a short price rolling exotic single other simply pass the race.
RACE 2: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Sharapova; 2-Ginja; 4-Whistler’s Style
Forecast: Whistler’s Style has a steadily improving pattern with rising speed figures, and in a race that offers plenty of early speed she should be able to settle in the second flight and then have every chance to seal the deal from the quarter pole home. The daughter of Tonalist is listed at 5-1 on the morning line but we suspect she’ll go lower. Ginja has the popular two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern combined with the always-dangerous blinkers off angle. Combined with a pedigree that leans towards distance, the daughter of Quality Road is a major player, though the B. Baffert-trained filly has failed at short odds in her last two races when not puting up much of a fight under pressure in the final furlong. We’ll also toss in on a ticket or two Sharapova, the likely controlling speed from the rail in her first try over a distance of ground. She ran well in her debut but then went backwards her second start (a slow start compromised her chances), so she also may not be one to trust.
RACE 3: Post: 2:07 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Pray for My Owner; 4-Mind Meld
Forecast: Pray for My Owner is the quickest in the field, and as a daughter of Temple City should run every bit as well on turf as she did when breaking her maiden on the main track with a strong speed figures two races back. Overmatched in the Evening Jewel S. last time out but dropping back to reality today, the M. Glatt-trained filly retains T. Baze and will be tough to catch if she can shake loose early without pressure. Recent debut winner Mind Meld is the one to fear most. A winner over this course and distance in late March and with a steady, healthy work pattern in the interim, the daughter of Point of Entry should employ similar stretch-running tactics, and with the projected race flow that is likely to compliment her style the M. Puype-trained filly will have every chance to produce another dangerous late kick. Both should be included in the rolling exotics with preference on top to Pray for My Owner.
RACE 4: Post: 2:41 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Queen Stormborn; 7-Miss Lady Ann
Forecast: Queen Stormborn was a voided claim when finishing third in a similar $16,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares in early April, but she has trained well since so we’re expecting the lightly-raced 4-year-old filly to bring her “A” game today if she receives a competent ride from 7 lbs. bug boy J. Espinoza. Miss Lady Ann makes her third start off a long layoff, and it should be the best race in her current form cycle. In the frame in all seven of her outings over the Santa Anita main track, the daughter of Munnings projects to settle in the second flight outside and then have clear sailing and every chance from the top of the lane to the wire. We’ll try to get by in rolling exotic play using just these two.
RACE 5: Post: 3:15 PT Grade: X
Use: 2-Bombard; 4-Law Abidin Citizen
Forecast: Bombard adds blinkers after just missing in his recent comeback in a tough allowance race and based on the projected race flow should be able to make the pace without undue pressure and then proceed to justify his role as the 6/5 morning line favorite in this year’s edition of t he Daytona S.-G3. Law Abidin Citizen is certain to put up a fight, and if our top pick fails to reproduce his best form this hard-knocking comebacker will make things difficult. A four-time winner on grass at Santa Anita and always thoroughly genuine and consistent throughout his career, the son of Twirling Candy returns to action after a pair of strong third place efforts in graded stakes company at Del Mar last summer. The M. Glatt-trained gelding has a good stalking style and won’t go down lightly.
RACE 6: Post: 3:48 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Scary Fast Smile; 3-Teton Valley
Forecast: Scary Fast Smile took seven races to break his maiden but did it in style last month when crushing state-bred rivals by nearly eight lengths while earning a strong, career-top speed figure. He’s hooking considerably more early heat today, so he’ll need to break sharply from the rail to avoid a troubled trip, but with clean start and another forward move the son of Smiling Tiger should be able to handle the class hike. Teton Valley, in the money in his last three outings while setting the pace and then weakening late, removes blinkers for the first time so patient handling might be employed. In the frame in in all five starts over the Santa Anita main track and highly competitive based strictly on speed figures, the R. Hanson-trained colt is the one to fear most.
RACE 7: Post: 4:19 PT Grade: X
Forecast: United is the 3/5 morning line favorite and seems likely to go lower in this four runner renewal of the Charles Whittingham S.-G2 over 10 furlongs on grass. The veteran son of Giant’s Causeway is the defending race champion and a five-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course, and after winning the San Luis Rey S.-G3 here in late March the R. Mandella-trained gelding projects to draft behind speed types Acclimate and Award Winner and then go on with it when ready. He’s a no-value rolling exotic single in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.
RACE 8: Post: 4:52 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Exaulted; 5-Eight Rings
Forecast: Eight Rings, so promising as a 2-year-old but highly disappointing in two starts during his sophomore campaign, launches a comeback for B. Baffert and appears to be training like his old self. We know he can fire a big shot fresh – he earned a career top speed figure in his debut win – and from his comfortable outside draw the son of Empire Maker can dictate the terms of the pace flow. He’s a Grade-1 winner and it’s not too late for him to become a major force in the older middle distance stakes division so it’ll be interesting to see if he can bring his best stuff this time around. Exaulted was a willing but non-threatening third in the San Carlos S.-G2 over this track and distance in early March and has trained very well since, so we’re expecting a similar if not slightly better performance today from the son of Twirling Candy. The P. Eurton-trained colt will be doing his best work late but in a race that might not produce modest early fractions his task won’t be easy.
RACE 9: Post: 5:26 PT Grade: B+
Use: 6-Dicey Mo Chara; 7-American Admiral; 8-No Foolery Here
Forecast: The finale is an interesting nine furlong maiden turf affair that has a few possibilities and a chance for a nice payoff. Dicey Mo Chara never really got involved in his U.S. debut vs. similar over a mile earlier this month but he did gallop out full of run and was far in front by the time the field reached the middle of the clubhouse turn. We are expecting the English-bred gelding to run much better today with that effort behind him, the addition of blinkers, and at today’s mile and one-eighth trip. He’s listed at 6-1 on the morning line and is a gamble at or near that price. No Foolery Here missed by a head when a dead-heat second in the same race our top pick exits and is another that should enjoy today’s longer trip. The son of Carpe Diem had a nice recent training track workout to indicate he’s continuing to move in the right direction. American Admiral appeared in need of the outing when a well-beaten third in his debut two weeks ago but with that tightener behind him and today surface switch to grass the son of American Pharoah seems sure to produce a significant forward move for the high-percentage F. Prat/B. Baffert jockey-trainer team.