by Dustin Fabian
May 30, 2021
It’s a great Monday of racing, with the Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita and a major stakes day at Lone Star Park, headlined by the G3 Steve Sexton Mile. That big Lone Star card will be my focus.
If you’re betting Lone Star with Xpressbet and 1/ST BET, remember to take advantage of our Lone Star Million Money-Back Special, offered on every race. Bet your horse to Win and get your cash back, up to $10, if you finish 2nd or 3rd.
Here’s my take on the $100,000 Guaranteed Late Pick 4, which covers Races 8 – 11.
RACE 8 (7:01PM ET) // CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE STAKES // 5 FURLONGS (TURF)
Named for 2010 BC Turf Sprint victor and 19-time winner Chamberlain Bridge, this race comes down to conversation about the three classy favorites. #3 ARCHIDUST (9/5) is ML fave and is a remarkable 6-for-8 at the distance. He won an allowance race at Lone Star on May 7 and held his own against top competition in New York last fall. The price is light, but he’s quality. He’ll just need to work out a trip. #6 TEXAS WEDGE and #7 CHAOS THEORY are in from California. They met twice in the span of six weeks over the winter, with CHAOS THEORY getting the better of the finish – by a head – in a Del Mar allowance and TEXAS WEDGE finishing slightly ahead in the G2 Hernandez, when they ran 4th and 5th. CHAOS THEORY got a solid prep in for this on April 25 when he finished 3rd in a Santa Anita allowance. The horse that ran 2nd that day, Bombard, just came back to dominate the G3 Daytona.
Use: #3 ARCHIDUST, #7 CHAOS THEORY
RACE 9 (7:31PM ET) // TEXAS DERBY // 1 1/16 MILES (DIRT)
Fulsome’s dominating win the G3 Matt Winn Stakes on Saturday at Churchill could change the dynamic of this race. #5 WARRANT (7/2) and #1 SCARRED (5/1), 2nd and 4th respectively behind that one in the $300K Oaklawn Stakes in May, have to be viewed with a bit more confidence. I see quite a bit of pace in here, with 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 – 6 – 8 all having done their recent races from on the engine. I think you have to take a stand against ML favorite #10 SUPER STOCK here. The G1 Arkansas Derby upsetter drew terribly benefitted from such a perfect trip at Oaklawn that it’s impossible to envision replication from his outside post. I’ll take a chance on #9 GET HER NUMBER (4/1), exiting that same Arkansas Derby, where he finished 4th, beaten 3-lengths. He took a big step forward from the G2 Rebel to the G1 Arkansas Derby and let’s remember this is just his third start of the year.
Use: #1 SCARRED, #5 WARRANT, #9 GET HER NUMBER
RACE 10 (8:03PM ET) // OUIJA BOARD DISTAFF STAKES // 1 MILE (TURF)
#1 LAURA’S LIGHT (1/1) is fast and an exceptional 5-for-9 at the distance. Her rail draw and the presence of Florent Geroux figure to ensure that she’ll be on the lead. And frankly, I’m not sure anyone wants to go with her. #5 SUMMERING won a FL-bred stakes race at Tampa last out from just off the pace, but she doesn’t appear to have LAURA’S LIGHT’s early foot. I like #6 RAVEN’S CRY (8/1) as a second pick. She’s 2-for-2 in the US but the horses she beat are suspect.
Use: #1 LAURA’S LIGHT, #6 RAVEN’S CRY
RACE 11 (8:35PM ET) // G3 STEVE SEXTON MILE // 1 MILE (DIRT)
The injury to Charlatan hit this race hard, as both Knicks Go and By My Standards – both originally pegged for Lone Star’s richest race – are pulling an audible and heading to New York for the G1 Met Mile on Saturday, June 5. The former didn’t enter and the latter will scratch.
That leaves #8 C Z ROCKET (2/1) as an interesting puzzle. He’s one of the top sprinters in the US (if not the top sprinter in the US) but two-turn racing may not be his forte. He hasn’t raced around the entire oval since April 2020 (he finished 8th) and he was twice beaten at a short prize in the (one turn) one-mile G3 Ack Ack at Churchill. He’s better today than he’s ever been, and he’s 7-for-8 since Peter Miller claimed him, but he’s a wildcard and a short price. In a sequence that could skew to chalk, do you really want to take 3/5 on him?
I don’t love #4 WARRIOR’S CHARGE (3/1), but I think this spot hits him right between the eyes – one-mile, two-turn race. He’s going to face immediate pace pressure from #5 HUNKA BURNING LOVE (12/1), drawn directly to his outside and #7 MO MOSA (12/1) could be part of the pace. I’m going to bet that one of the first two chooses not to indulge in a gate-to-wire duel, which would set us up to use both on the ticket and toss C Z ROCKET at too little value.
Use: #4 WARRIOR’S CHARGE, #5 HUNKA BURNING LOVE
Race 8: 3, 7
Race 9: 1, 5, 9
Race 10: 1, 6
Race 11: 4, 5
Cost: $48.00 for $2.00