by Jeff Siegel
June 5, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: X
Single: 3-I Got No Munny
Forecast: I Got No Munny demolished a slightly softer starter’s allowance field over this track and distance last month and if he can turn in two alike the Munnings gelding should have no difficulty repeating despite the minor class hike. On pure numbers he’s a standout, one of the main reasons he is listed at 4/5 on the morning line. You can use him as a short price rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
RACE 2: Post: 1:32 PT Grade: B+
Single: 1-Feeling Grazeful
Forecast: Feeling Grazeful was very well-meant in her debut, but a slow start cost her valuable early position and the daughter of Grazen did well to finish a promising second while seven lengths clear of the rest. If she can leave cleanly today from the rail, the W. Spawr-trained sophomore will be hard to beat in this maiden state-bred sprint. At or near her morning line of 8/5, she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 3: Post: 2:03 PT Grade: X
Forecast: Here’s another short price favorite that should win but won’t offer any real wagering value. Listed at 4/5 on the morning line, Reedley is a first-off-the-claim play for J. Mullins (strong stats with this angle), and though he missed at a similar price last time out when worn down late the veteran son of Paynter should fire a shot similar to his highly-rated score two runs back that produced a career top speed figure. E. Maldonado stays aboard and knows him well and should have this 5-year-old on the front end throughout as a no-value rolling exotic single.
RACE 4: Post: 2:33 PT Grade: C+
Use: 2-Big Andy; 4-Mucha Woman; 6-Varoma
Forecast: Mucha Woman returns to the main track, clearly her preferred surface, and the D. O’Neill-trained filly also stretches out again to a distance she’s shown she can handle. In an open fray in which any one of the six entrants appear capable of winning, we’ll go with this sophomore daughter of Empire Way, who already has three wins on her resume. Big Andy returned off a layoff to win her sophomore debut vs. maiden $50,000 claiming sprinters last month, and with a forward move today the daughter of Mr. Big can be competitive right back. She should settle in the second flight and then have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. Varoma is a fit on figures and shows an easy score over this track and distance when breaking her maiden in February. If she can negotiate a decent trip from her widest-of-six post position, she’ll be right there.
RACE 5: Post: 3:15 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-McWherter; 8-Armour Plate
Forecast: McWherter is fresh from a clever maiden $50,000 claiming score over this course and distance in early April and shows a strong, healthy work tab at San Luis Rey Downs in the interim. He’s a fairly quick type and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. Armour Plate is the 8/5 morning line favorite (and may even go lower) and certainly is the one to fear most, but he has one win from 25 career starts (with nine seconds/thirds) and therefore isn’t one to trust. He certainly could win, and we’ll include him on our ticket, but at his projected price he’ll offer little wagering value. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play.
RACE 6: Post: 3:50 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Desmond Doss; 5-Tizhotndusty
Forecast: Desmond Doss removes blinkers, returns to the main track, and drops from state-bred stakes company into this allowance optional claimer, all positive factors that contribute to his 6/5 morning line price. No worse than second in three career starts over the local main track, the son of Grazen can win on the front end or by rallying from mid-pack, so regular rider A. Cedillo can assess the early pace flow and then decide on a strategy. Tizhotndusty is a hard-hitting gelding with strong form over the Santa Anita dirt surface, most recently earning a career top speed figure when a close second under similar conditions last month while well clear of the rest. Based on that race, he’s the one to fear most. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Desmond Doss on top.
RACE 7: Post: 4:52 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Nasty; 8-Superstition
Forecast: Superstition got caught in a wicked speed duel and paid the price late when second in the Mizdirection S. over this turf course in mid-April but catches what promises to be a much more comfortable pace scenario today, and with the benefit of her outside draw she appears capable of dictating the terms of the early fractions. The daughter of Ghostzapper offers wagering value at or near her morning line of 5/2 if you can get it. Nasty seems worth including on a ticket or two as a backup. Freshened since winning the grassy Lady Shamrock S. over a mile here in late December, the R. Baltas-trained filly has trained in sharp style of late and though primarily a middle distance performer in her career could be just effective as a late-running sprinter.
RACE 8: Post: 5:26 PT Grade: X
Forecast: Signofthecross looks solid in this first-level allowance main track miler for state-bred older horses, but he’s listed at 6/5 on the morning line so he won’t be offering any real wagering value. First or second in five of seven career starts, the L. Powell-trained gelding makes his first appearance since early February but the work tab, while certainly not flashy, should have him fit enough to return as well as he left. Anything close to his best race wins, so we’ll make him a rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.
RACE 9: Post: 6:01 PT Grade: B
Use: 6-Magic Man; 7-Landowne
Forecast: Magic Man outran his 15-1 odds when leading the way until deep stretch before winding up a close fourth in his debut over the local lawn vs. similar last month. If he can improve off that race – and the barn has solid stats with the second-time starter angle – the son of American Pharoah will be hard to catch. Today’s shorter distance certainly won’t hurt, and the apparent lack of other early speed in the field also enhances his chances. Landowne represents stranger danger and is the one to fear most. A couple of outings during the winter over the all-weather surface at Dundalk in Ireland were okay but not great; however, English-bred gelding has trained extremely well for his local debut and could easily be better than shown. This will be his first try on grass (bred for it) and the P. D’Amato barn has a superior record with European imports.