by Johnny D
June 24, 2021
Heading into Friday’s card, Gulfstream Park’s Rainbow Six pot will be guaranteed at $650,000. If there’s no single winning ticket, Saturday’s pot will be huge and worth shooting at. That’s mainly because that day the Hallandale emporium will empty the till in a mandatory payout. Gulfstream folks have been sitting on this egg for 13 days; May 29 was last time it was ‘single ticketed’ for roughly $400k. Saturday, the egg finally hatches. Everything must go! No matter how many winning tickets there might be.
If you’ve been playing along in the Rainbow Six since May 29, then Saturday is the time to get your money back. If you haven’t been playing along at home, then Saturday’s your chance to win a share of everyone else’s money.
Below is one man’s humble opinion regarding Saturday’s Gulfstream Mandatory Rainbow Six Payout, followed by a suggested Rainbow Six ticket. Selections are for a fast track and a firm turf course and have been made before scratches and don’t include analysis for Main Track Only or Also Eligible runners.
RACE 7 (3:23PM ET) // MAIDEN CLAIMING // 5 1/2 FURLONGS (DIRT)
#1 Personal Meadow
He will show speed from the rail and will have to be caught to be defeated. Foes have accomplished that in the gelding’s last three races at this level. What’s different Saturday is that two of those previous failures came at six furlongs and one at seven furlongs and this race is at five and one-half panels. Trainer Oscar Gonzalez is just 1-26 with 4 seconds and 5 thirds, so that doesn’t inspire confidence. Jockey Jaramillo is a solid ‘speed’ jock, batting 22% and has been aboard this one for two runner-up efforts last two times out.
#3 The King Aquiles
This gelding has a trouble line from his last race, but it really was more a factor of him not keeping up with the leaders. He appeared to re-rally a bit after changing leads and that’s encouraging. The effort was his first on dirt after five consecutive turf tries on top of a horrid first out at Delaware Park. He is racing at the $12,5k level for the first time from $16k.
Has just two starts under his belt and was claimed for $16k last out when eighth of eight on turf. Before that he was fifth of seven in a Tampa Maiden Allowance race. He’s shown some speed in those races. New trainer Jorge Delgado hits at 22% and is 33% first of the claim, He’s also 30% out of 10 tries with jockey Morelos. The slight drop in class off the claim isn’t a troubling move for a winning barn. Too many positive stats to ignore this one.
#10 Dream of Warrior
This guy drops from $20k to $12,5k and shortens from six furlongs to five and one-half panels. He has some speed and will need to use it from the far outside. 0-6 seven pound bug rider Calles will get this one ‘in light.’ Top jock Edgard Zayas previously rode this gelding in all four races and they managed to finish second, beaten four lengths in their penultimate try at the $35k level. Beyer Speed Figures for all four races fit in here and it should be noted that two of those were on turf. In light, dropping in class and sporting competitive speed figs all give this one an outside look.
Must Use: #1, #4
Extras: #3, #10
RACE 8 (3:55PM ET) // OPTIONAL CLAIMING // 1 1/16 MILES (TURF)
This gelding brings the best resume of all into this race. That includes a solid third, beaten less than two lengths, last out in the English Channel at this track over this distance. Before that he was third and second, respectively, beaten less than one length in each race. He graduated from the maiden ranks at the $25k level after a slow start and wide rally. Jockey Edgard Zayas tries has hand for the first time. Beyer Speed Figures fit well, too. Kartano has enough speed to be within striking distance. Must be used.
#4 Fuego Caliente
He exits a race common to four others in here. He didn’t fare well in that outing, but was second going seven and one-half furlongs the time before and fourth, beaten less than one length, at one mile at this level. Victor Lebron rides for the first time. The colt has had eight tries and broke maiden for $25k here at this distance in his third start. He’s a reach on the win end.
#5 The Best Distance
Winner of just 1 of 13, he showed speed and faltered badly in the common race to four others. He’d be difficult to play off of that poor effort, but he did win a maiden allowance race going seven and one-half furlongs one before that with a suitable speed rating. Not for us.
Finished second and best of those coming out of the common race at this level on May 31. He’s had just three starts and has won two of those with one second; an admirable record in here. One of those wins came first out at the maiden $25k level and the other against fellow 3-year-olds for $20k. He was claimed out of that race by 29% winning trainer Saffie Joseph and has been ridden the last two times by 22% winning jockey Jaramillo. He’s difficult to ignore in here.
This colt has a superb record over the Gulfstream Park turf with two wins, three seconds and one third in seven starts. He will be trying a new trick today by being asked to stretch out from five furlongs to one mile and one-mile and one-sixteenth. He has a win at this level sprinting and has shown the ability to close there. From this outside post, 21% winning jockey Edwin Gonzalez will ask this guy to show speed. He’ll need to do better than he has before, but he has some angles in his favor. He’s a bit of a reach.
Possible Single: #3
Next Best: #7
RACE 9 (4:29PM ET) // MAIDEN CLAIMING // 7 FURLONGS (DIRT)
#1 Sandy Dune
A drop from maiden $20k to maiden $12,5k and a stretch out from six furlongs to one mile did this one some good as he finished second, beaten just one length. That was his best finish since a runner-up effort first time out for maiden $35k in January. If that most recent effort can be repeated, he fits. Otherwise, there are some poor performances, granted at higher levels, that must be overlooked to like this one’s chances from the rail going seven furlongs.
Often, in races like this at the lower maiden claiming levels, the least exposed runner deserves a long look. In here that horse would be #2 Boldness, who has made just one start at the maiden $25k level. In that race, he broke a bit slowly from the rail, rushed up, appeared to be getting out a bit on the turn, was checked from between horses and was not asked late. That experience, a class drop and a screw tightening or two might make this one a threat in here. It’s a bit of a negative to see that jockey Gonzalez does not return, but Jaramillo certainly can get the job done on the front end.
#3 Kathern’s Joy
This gelding has been second in his last two starts and a runner-up in all three of his main track appearances—all at seven furlongs. He’s got three poor two-turn turf races on his resume and they darken his overall form. He has improved Beyer Speed Figures since his first start in November—a total of six races. He added Lasix for the first time last out. Low percentage jockey and trainer stats aren’t encouraging but, based on his trio of runner-up finishes at the distance, he deserves a look.
#7 Staten Island
He dropped to the maiden $12,5k level last out and switched to the main track for the first time at seven furlongs. Changes did him good, as the he was barely touched out for second while finishing over three lengths behind the winner. It was an OK effort and he steps up one notch in class for this maiden $16k heat. He should be fit as his most recent race was June 20. He’s interesting but not overwhelming in a bit of a scramble.
Must Use: #2, #3, #7
Maybe Add: #1
RACE 10 (5:02PM ET) // CLAIMING // 1 MILE (TURF)
#1 Mr Tito’s
This 4-year-old gelding is one of two in here (#5 Easy Stride is the other) coming off last-out victories and they always deserve second glances. This guy has five in the money finishes in 10 Gulfstream turf starts, including two wins. Low profile connections of trainer Jennifer Young and jockey Luis Reyes ought to guarantee a price. The rail is a great place from which to start going one mile at Gulfstream. His recent Beyer Speed Figures are very competitive.
#3 Wise to Listen
This 6-year-old has just two wins in 17 starts and is a longshot to win this. He has back Beyer Speed Figs that make him tough, but he hasn’t touched those in a while. His last race can be forgiven because it was on dirt for 18% trainer David Fawkes and 22% winning jockey Edwin Gonzalez—who rode #1 Mr Tito’s to victory last out and failed 3/5 favorite #9 Calabash to a fourth placing and now ends up here! Why? He is 22% out of nine mounts for Fawkes, but that’s not overwhelming. This guy’s a real reach, but sometimes following breadcrumbs get you home first.
#5 Easy Stride
With two wins in just five starts over the Gulfstream Park turf course, this 4-year-old colt seems poised to parlay a victory in his last race into another top effort. If he does that, he’s got a chance to win this race. Trainer Steve Dwoskin bats at a solid 20% and jockey Vasquez combines with him to hit with 17% of 52 starters. This guy’s no standout, but he’s sharp, likes the course, fast enough and in the hands of capable connections.
Second in a $12,5k non-winners of three races—his first try at that level—this 4-year-old gelding probably is one of two (#9 Calabash is the other) that will take some beating in here. He plied his trade at Tampa in a variety of races at around this level and won a $16k non winners of 2 there going one mile on grass. Trainer Mark Casse is winning at 25% and jockey Jaramillo hits at 22%. Together they’re batting 18%. It should be noted that he comes out of a common race with #9 Calabash, who was favored in that tussle at $.70-to-1, while Kramden was dispatched at $10.40-1 odds. The former broke from the far outside post in the eight-horse field and the latter had the rail post position.
This 4-year-old gelding was less than even-money favorite at about this level last time out while finishing a disappointing fourth, beaten nearly four lengths. From the outside eight post, at the break Calabash was taken back to last where he raced most of the way until swinging very wide for a meager finish. He’s probably better than that. That was the gelding’s first start for 29% winning trainer Saffie Joseph, so improvement was anticipated. Unfortunately for his connections, he’s drawn the far outside post again. Expect a more aggressive ride this time from jockey Diaz, replacing Gonzalez. Diaz and trainer Joseph are an excellent 32% with 19 mounts.
Must Use: #7, #9
Also Use: #1, #5
A Real Reach: #3
RACE 11 (5:35PM ET) // CLAIMING // 1 MILE (DIRT)
#3 Brett’s World
Claimed for $35k out of a 4-horse maiden race, two races later, this 3-year-old gelding won two for a maiden $20k tag going one mile. He beat just two home last out when fifth at the $20k non-winners of two level. He showed speed that afternoon and probably will again in here under jockey Jaramillo for 22% winning trainer Robert Dibona. The class relief ought to help. Overall, the gelding is one for four over the Gulfstream main track and seems to fit in here.
#4 Braccio Di Ferro
This 3-year-old gelding emerges from the same race as #3 Brett’s World and finished roughly two lengths better than that one. They both have had eight career starts with one win. Class drops out to help. Braccio Di Ferro doesn’t have as much speed as #3 Brett’s World and is more of an even-styled runner. 21% jockey Gonzalez replaces Zayas in the saddle (goes to #7 Gege Conquest) for low percentage trainer Jose Angelo. Together they have one win in five starts. Don’t fancy this one as much as #3 Brett’s World.
#7 Gege Conquest
He’s the third one in here dropping from the $20k level down to $12,500 and he exits the same race as #3 Brett’s World and #4 Braccio Di Ferro. He’s just one for 13 with three seconds and three thirds over the Gulfstream main track, so a minor award seems most likely. His main positive is that he’s finished well in front of #4 Braccio Di Ferro on a couple of occasions.
#8 Union Gap
This 3-year-old colt has won three races in a row and that many in five starts over the Gulfstream main track. He posted the fastest Beyer Speed Figure in the race last out and will break from the far outside in the number 8 post position. It’s always scary to pass on horses with winning records against less statistically impressive foes but there may be reasons to do that in here. This horse will be making a substantial jump in class from $6,250 non-winners of three races to $12,500 non-winners of two. That’s a bit of a leap upward. Also, he was claimed from his last two races—originally from Saffie Joseph for $6,250 in May and from Jorge Delgado for $6,250 in June. Both of those trainers hit at about 22%. Union Gap will be making his first start off the claim for trainer William Tharrenos and, while he’s a capable 1-5 at the meet, Tharrenos is 0-14 first off the claim. Also, Union Gap has won his last three while racing from off the pace at distances from six to seven furlongs. Going one mile he likely won’t get as hot an early pace to close into and his late kick may be somewhat muted. Drawn on the far outside in post eight, he may be forced to go around several foes for a late run. Bottom line: he’s a winner and such horses are difficult to ignore, however, there are reasons to look elsewhere in this race.
Add: #4, #7, #8
RACE 12 (6:08PM ET) // MAIDEN CLAIMING // 1 1/16 MILES (TURF)
#3 Lord Darley
He ran evenly last out to finish third in a race common with #11 William Boy and #12 Juguete. He had to wait a bit behind horses turning into the lane and that may have cost him a bit as the leaders got the jump on him. He’s tried this level twice on turf and just missed by a neck at 71-1 one back. Chantal Sutherland rides for red-hot Roger Laurin and they bat 29% together.
#5 M V Speed
This gelding looks interesting off two turf races for trainer Amando De La Cerda. He set the pace last out before fading late and being passed by #3 Lord Darley. He could have the lead, the rail and 22% winning jockey Jaramillo nursing him along. Note: Trainer De La Cerda and the jock are 24% from 42 starts! Wire-to-wire threat.
#6 Kick in the Gas
He ran well enough in his first start for maiden $35k for previous trainer Christophe Clement. The colt tumbles to maiden $12,500 level for 29% trainer Saffie Joseph and that ought to be enough to get the job done. Blinkers will be added. Jockey Zayas and Joseph are a powerful 28% together. Joseph also has top notch stats for first race after trainer change 23%; 61-180 layoff 22%; first time blinkers 23%. The immediate drop is a bit concerning but Joseph’s not afraid to run them where they belong. Lots of strong stats.
Use: #3, #5, #6
MY GULFSTREAM RAINBOW 6 MANDATORY PAYOUT TICKET
Race 7: #1, #4
Race 8: #3
Race 9: #2, #3, #7
Race 10: #1, #5, #7, #9
Race 11: #3, #4, #7, #8
Race 12: #3, #5, #6
Cost: $57.60 for 20-cents