by Jeff Siegel
July 4, 2021
Every Thursday through Sunday 1/ST BET handicapper Jeff Siegel offers his best wagering opportunity from a selected North American racetrack. These “Best Plays” can take the form of a win wager, exacta, trifecta, or a daily double, pick-3, pick-4 or pick-6. Selections are listed in chronological order.
Ellis Park Race 6 - Post time: 3:10 CT
3-Our Lady Nelson (8-1)
Here’s a wide-open maiden special weight turf sprint for juvenile fillies that offers a chance for a nice price. The debuting Our Lady Nelson, from the first crop of the good sprinter Lord Nelson, displayed smooth action and excellent speed when previewing in :10 flat at the OBS March sale before bringing $95,000 through the ring. There’s nothing flashy about her local work tab, except for a bullet gate work (1:01.1bg, fastest of seven) last month, but we’ll assume she’s fit enough to show her best stuff. The two entrants with previous experience aren’t impressive so we’ll expect a newcomer will win and this J. Hancock-trained youngster may be capable of doing just that at an enticing 8-1 on the morning line.
Pleasanton Race 9 – Post time: 6:36 PT
1-Sunset Star (15-1)
The published morning line of 15-1 for Sunset Star is best ignored, as the overnight odds for this maiden sprint for fillies and mares appear to have been picked out of a hat. From a high-quality outfit and with a series of workouts that should have her fit and ready, this $120,000 Keeneland yearling purchase by Exaggerator appears well-spotted to graduate at first asking for the lethal trainer/jockey combo of B. Wright and A. Ayuso. The main concern is her rail post position, but if she can leave cleanly from the rail and avoid trouble she should be hard to beat. At whatever price she leaves at we’ll make her a win play and rolling exotic single.