by Jeff Siegel
August 1, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade:
Use: 4-Just Distorted; 5-Big Sweep
Forecast: Big Sweep ran huge in her first outing in 10 months when finishing in a dead-heat for second behind the talented Private Mission in a very strong race that earned a smart speed rating. Since that race she’s been given sufficient time to be fit and ready today, with a recent five furlong workout in 1:00.3 eight days ago indicating that she’s spot on. Perfect in one start over the Del Mar main track, the daughter of Mr. Big retains regular pilot F. Prat and seems the likely choice and one to beat at 8/5 on the morning line. Just Distorted has strong credentials as well and is a “must use” rolling exotic play. Second in her debut, the J. Wong-trained filly stepped forward to graduate in good style in her next outing at the expense of the well-regarded Sea Dreamer, a next-out winner by many lengths while significantly franking the form.
RACE 2: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Magnolia; 2-Time to Party; 6-Urban
Forecast: In a two-old turf sprint with a pair of quick fillies tackling the boys, Urban, a $375,000 Timonium purchase where she previewed beautifully is 10 1/5 seconds, may be the best of the lot. Closely related to champion filly Abel Tasman, she debuts sprinting following a work tab that should have her plenty fit and ready. The daughter of Quality Road lands the barn’s main guy U. Rispoli and appears quick enough to be comfortable at this five furlong trip and may be worth a gamble. Work mate Magnolia, listed at 15-1 on the morning line, is no slouch either and is worth using on your ticket as well. As for the others, hot trainer P. Miller has three in the field of seven, all of whom have done their preparation out of sight at the San Luis Rey Downs training center, so we’re largely guessing as to which, if any, are worth including in your rolling exotics. Time to Party, a $72,000 OBS purchase in January of his yearling year, is bred to win right now, and a :59 4/5 gate work July 17 in company (we assume) with Bombs At Cocal catches the eye. With F. Prat taking the call, the Kantharos gelding would have to be considered something of a live item.
RACE 3: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Pinehurst; 4-Penetrator; 6-Cabo Spirit
Forecast: Here’s another 2-year-old sprint, this one at five furlongs on the main track. The “stories” might be more interesting than the race itself. Cabo Spirit brought $575,00 at the OBS April sale, where he sizzled a quarter mile in 20 4/5 seconds, the fastest clocking for the distance, during the preview session. The son of Pioneerof the Nile hasn’t been asked to show anywhere near that type of quickness in his local works but has done everything asked of him while breezing like a very nice prospect. The barn hardly ever wins with first-time starters, so you have to be cautious, but if this colt doesn’t make any mistakes he could be dangerous at 6-1 on the morning line. Pinehurst is another that has trained like a good sort and this B. Baffert-trained son of Twirling Candy should display plenty of speed from the rail, assuming he breaks with his field. Penetrator looked strong in a five furlong gate work with blinkers on last week and appears fit and dangerous for J. Hollendorfer. He’s actually bred to run long on the lawn but the way he breezed over this track you’d have to think he can be competitive under these conditions. Significantly, F. Prat takes the call.
RACE 4: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 7-Zero Tolerance; 9-Pequena Tormenta
Forecast: Zero Tolerance was given a strong foundation of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs prior to joining the main string and looked good in both of her drills at Del Mar. She’s bred for grass on both sides of her pedigree, so at 6-1 on the morning line she offers a good price chance in a wide-open maiden dash for older fillies and mares. Pequena Tormenta, listed at 8-1 on the morning line for the R. Baltas barn, is another that has done some promising work in the a.m. and is worth including on your ticket. The barn doesn’t always crank ‘em up early but this one looks like a fairly live item. You can go deeper on your ticket if you like but these are the two we’ll be keying in rolling exotic play.
Race 5: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: X
Use: 2-Rinse and Repeat; 5-Reedley
Forecast: Reedly won easily for $12,500 at Santa Anita in early June and returns almost two months later at this bottom rung $8,000 level. If he has one good one left, he’ll probably score again, but at his morning line of 9/5 he won’t be offering much in the way of wagering value. Rinse and Repeat vans down from Los Alamitos, where he finished second in a pair of recent mixed-breed races. He’s never been big on winning but against this modest group he must be considered a major player. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics in a race that we’ll otherwise not get too involved with.
RACE 6: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Burrow Down; 9-Baby’s Dream
Forecast: Burrow Down displayed some ability in a pair of strong sprints for juveniles in Kentucky, and after being given a couple of months off returns in a proper spot while seeking valuable ship-and-win money in this maiden turf router for juvenile fillies. We’re expecting the daughter of Connect to be on the lead, and if she’s not pressed she could take the field a very long. With After Market on the bottom side of her pedigree, she’s certainly bred to move up under these conditions. Baby’s Dream got her feet wet when fourth in a quick turf sprint at Santa Anita in mid-June and returns today stretching out for a more serious effort. The daughter of Texas Ride is bred to run long on the lawn (Declaration of War x Kitten’s Joy), so if she’s going to amount to anything decent this is the trip and surface that should bring out her best.
RACE 7: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-K P Silver Bullet; 4-Frost Warning; 12-Kattah
Forecast: Let’s go with the dangerous late-runner K P Silver Bullet in this modest maiden $40,000 extended sprint while hoping that the third time’s the charm for this gelding, who was claimed in both of his starts and today goes for the good W. Spawr stable while dropping down from the $50,000 level. We like his return to dirt, so after a pair of races that may not have shown him in his best light, the son of Secret Circle hopefully will have no excuses today. Northern California shipper Frost Warning surfaces for a tag after finishing a respectable runner-up in a straight maiden sprint at Pleasanton earlier this month. If can repeat that type of race down here, the J. Wong-trained gelding may take some catching. This is very realistic spot according to his speed figures,. Kattah closed a gap but too late to be a non-threatening, distant third in his debut vs. straight maidens last month at Santa Anita. He draws the comfortable outside post, and while he’s certainly not a speed type the R. Hanson-trained gelding should have every chance to make a late impression.
RACE 8: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Fly the Sky; 5-In Vronsky Style; 6-Catemaco
Forecast: Here’s a stronger-than-par first level allowance sprint for state-bred older horses. It’s a deep field with three appearing to be a cut above the rest. In Vronsky Style is a progressive gelding fresh from a sharp maiden tally sprinting on grass at Santa Anita, and with another forward move today the P. D’Amato-trained four-year-old will be tough to deny right back. Though he has plenty of early zip, the son of Vronsky could be just as effective if held up and allowed to quicken late if that’s what the race flow demands. Catemaco ran off and hid at 14-1 in his debut on New Year’s Day in a dirt sprint at Santa Anita that earned a strong speed figure, but then disappeared. If he returns as well as he left, the K. Mulhall-trained colt should be a major contender despite the required raise in class and the switch in surface. Fly the Sky has the route-to-sprint angle that we like and will be running on late, so if the early fractions are faster than par the S. Miyadi-trained gelding could make some serious noise late. At 6-1 on the morning line he’s worth including on your ticket somewhere.
RACE 9: Post: 6:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 6-Venetian Harbor; 7-Shedaresthedevil
Forecast: This year’s renewal of the Clement L. Hirsch S.-G1 is loaded with speed, so the natural inclination is to the find the best closer. Sometimes, though, the quickest of the quick gains control and never looks back, and that certainly could happen here with the sprinter-stretching-out Venetian Harbor. The daughter of Munnings was spectacular in winning her 2021 debut in the Monrovia S.-G2 on turf last month but she’s also a graded stakes winner routing on the main track, so it’s not like she can’t get the trip if allowed to be the controlling speed. The way she’s been training at San Luis Rey Downs, the R. Baltas-trained filly appears better than ever. Shedaresthedevil is the deserved morning line favorite at 7/5 and has proven she can stalk, pounce, and go-by, so from her outside draw the B. Cox-trained filly surely will employ those tactics today. Given the projected race flow and the type of trip she’s likely to enjoy, the high-class daughter of Daredevil is strictly the one to beat. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play in a race that features several top class older females who may meet again over this track in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff in November.
RACE 10: Post: 6:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Mongolian Mission; 4-Fabiolla; 5-Quinevere
Forecast: Quinevere seeks ship-and-win money in her first local start and her first for P. Miller, so we’re expecting a major effort from the German-bred filly who will be racing in a claimer for the first time in her three race career. Her form back east doesn’t look like much, but her numbers make her a good fit at this level and the work tab at San Luis Downs indicates she’s fit and doing well. At 5-1 on the morning line under U. Rispoli, she’s worth a play. Mongolian Mission is lightly-raced, improving, drawn nicely inside and shows speed figures that have risen in each of her four career starts. That’s the good news. The bad is that the barn is 0-for-41 this year. We’ll at least save with here. Fabiolla is a 15-race maiden and certainly not one to trust, but she’s stretching out after a good recent sprint effort and is a fit on figures, so we’ll toss her in as well.