KENTUCKY DERBY RECAP

TRIPLE CROWN TALK: The way I see it at this point, Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown is almost certain to exit the May 17 Preakness Stakes with the opportunity to become a Triple Crown winner.

About the only way to stop Big Brown in the Preakness is to put him five lengths BEHIND the starting gate and make him carry TWO jockeys instead of just one.

Actually, I’m not sure even that could derail Big Brown in Baltimore. In the Run for the Roses, he proved to the vast majority of us that he is in a different league than the other 3-year-olds he has run against -- and trounced -- this year.

After Street Sense rallied from 19th to win the 2008 Kentucky Derby going away by 2 1/4 lengths, many wondered if he would quench the sport’s thirst for a Triple Crown winner.

“Can Street Sense end the drought that has lasted since Affirmed in 1978 by becoming the 12th Thoroughbred to sweep the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes?” I wrote. “I certainly won’t say it’s impossible. But I am concerned that Street Sense has never even won three in a row up to this point. And now he is being asked to win three of the world’s most demanding races within five weeks.”

Undefeated Big Brown’s big win in the Kentucky Derby last Saturday was his fourth straight. So he already has put together a longer winning streak than Street Sense.

What were the longest winning streaks for the Triple Crown winners of the 1970s before they took the Kentucky Derby?

Affirmed put together winning streaks of four and five prior to his Kentucky Derby victory.

Seattle Slew won six straight before he took the Kentucky Derby on his way to becoming the first undefeated Triple Crown winner in 1977.

Secretariat finished first in 10 straight, ran third in the Wood Memorial, then swept the Triple Crown in 1973.

Another concern I had about Street Sense going into the Preakness was his fondness for the main track at Churchill Downs. His two best performances had come on that track. In addition to the Derby, Street Sense had romped to a record 10-length win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs.

But, here again, Big Brown already has shown he’s not strictly a horse for any one particular course. He’s won on the turf at Saratoga, twice on the dirt at Gulfstream Park and once on the dirt at Churchill Downs.

Big Brown, who is owned by IEAH Stables and Paul Pompa Jr., was so dominant in the Kentucky Derby that, at this writing, the only other starter from that race that’s even considered a possibility for the Preakness is Recapturetheglory.

I certainly can understand why Recapturetheglory’s co-owners, Ronnie Lamarque and trainer Louie Roussel, would give at least some consideration to the Preakness. Those owners have won a Preakness following a Kentucky Derby loss before. In 1988, Lamarque and Roussel saw their Risen Star finished third in the Kentucky Derby. Risen Star then took the Preakness before going on to also win the Belmont.

BIG BROWN’S BEYER: Big Brown ran 1 1/4 miles in 2:01.82 to win the Kentucky Derby by 4 3/4 lengths while earning a 109 Beyer Speed Figure. The American Racing Manual lists the winning Derby figures going back to 1989, with no figures listed in the book for 1990 or 1991. Here is how Big Brown’s compares to the other Derby winners who were assigned a Beyer Speed Figure:

2008 Big Brown (109)
2007 Street Sense (110)
2006 Barbaro (111)
2005 Giacomo (100)
2004 Smarty Jones (107)
2003 Funny Cide (109)
2002 War Emblem (114)
2001 Monarchos (116)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (108)
1999 Charismatic (108)
1998 Real Quiet (107)
1997 Silver Charm (115)
1996 Grindstone (112)
1995 Thunder Gulch (108)
1994 Go for Gin (112)
1993 Sea Hero (105)
1992 Lil E. Tee (107)
1989 Sunday Silence (102)

CONFIDENCE: Big Brown’s trainer, Rick Dutrow, expressed so much confidence that it took some by surprise and others were annoyed. But, much like John Campo with Pleasant Colony and Bud Delp with Spectacular Bid, Dutrow’s confidence was vindicated.

BIG VALUE: Darren Rovell wrote at CNBC.com that Big Brown was valued at $30 million to $40 million after the Florida Derby, according to Michael Iavarone of IEAH Stables. Accordingly, the ownership group had the colt insured for $32.5 million going into the Kentucky Derby. Following Big Brown’s Derby win, he “will head to Pimlico for the Preakness as the most insured active horse at $50 million.”

I have stated that I am afraid we might not see Big Brown start again if he does sweep the Triple Crown because he would become so valuable that his owners could not risk continuing to race him.

If Big Brown wins the Preakness, Rovell wrote, “they likely won’t be able to get enough insurance to cover what the horse will be worth heading into the Belmont. There’s simply not enough capacity to cover a $100 million horse, which is what Big Brown could be should he be the first horse to win the Triple Crown.”

POST 20: Big Brown became the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby out of a starting gate from post 20. The only other Derby winner from post 20 was Clyde Van Dusen in 1929 before the races at Churchill Downs began with a starting gate. In 1929, they had a walk-up start.

In the Florida Derby, Big Brown became the first horse to win a 1 1/8-mile race on the dirt from post 11 or 12 since the main track had been reconfigured four years ago. At this year’s Gulfstream Park meet prior to the Florida Derby, no horse had won a 1 1/8-mile race on the dirt from posts 8, 9, 10, 11 or 12.

In the Kentucky Derby, Big Brown became only the third horse since Clyde Van Dusen to win from the outside post. Majestic Prince won from the outside post in a field of eight in 1969. Middleground won from the outside post in a field of 14 in 1950. Going into this year’s Run for the Roses, the outside post had lost 38 straight.

FRONT BANDAGES: Big Brown added front bandages for this year’s Kentucky Derby. He was the only horse in the field of 20 to race with front bandages.

Last year, Street Sense was the only starter in the Kentucky Derby to race with front bandages. He had been competing with front bandages since adding them for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

A GOOD DERBY RULE: Big Brown raced once at 2, winning a 1 1/16-mile race on the turf at Saratoga by 11 1/4 lengths. That means we still have not had a Kentucky Derby winner who didn’t compete as a 2-year-old since Apollo in 1882. The Derby now has been run 134 times, with 133 of the winners having had racing experience at 2.

OVERCOMING LACK OF EXPERIENCE: Curlin went into the 2007 Kentucky Derby with only three lifetime starts. Before the race, Andrew Beyer of The Washington Post wrote: “Curlin has only one significant flaw: He lacks the racing experience that Derby winners usually possess. This could be a fatal flaw, because more than a century of historical evidence says the colt doesn’t have the proper resume to succeed at Churchill Downs.”

Many, including yours truly, likewise questioned whether Big Brown could win the roses with just three lifetime starts.

“[Big Brown] has won all three of his starts with ease, earning superior speed figures, and none of his rivals has a record remotely comparable,” Beyer wrote before this year’s Derby. “In an ordinary race, a horse with such credentials might look unbeatable.

“But the Derby is not an ordinary race, and it is always a tough race, requiring horses to run 1 1/4 miles amidst the chaos of a 20-horse field -- something they will never again do in their lives. History indicates that horses must have sufficient seasoning to handle the unique stress of the race.

“A horse ought to have raced at least five times in his career to be ready for the Derby. No horse with fewer than five prior starts has earned a blanket of roses since Exterminator in 1918. (Thirty have tried and failed.)

“So even though Big Brown owns the best Beyer Speed Figures in the Derby field, I am throwing him out Saturday. I would not take 2-1 on a horse trying to overcome such strong historical precedents.”

Like I said, I too questioned whether Big Brown had enough experience to win. But while, as Beyer wrote, the Derby is not an ordinary race, Big Brown made his 18 male rivals look ordinary. The closest opponent to him at the finish was the ill-fated filly Eight Belles.

Big Brown became the first Kentucky Derby winner with fewer than four lifetime starts since another filly, the great Regret, in 1915.

There will be those who will pull out their “Big Brown won the Derby with only four starts” card and eagerly play it in order to make the case for some other similarly lightly raced Derby starter in the future. But what they will likely fail to take into account is that lightly raced Derby starter probably won’t be nearly as good as Big Brown.

THREE PREPS RULE BROKEN AGAIN: Going into this year, of the last 55 horses to try and win the Kentucky Derby with only two preps at 3, 53 had failed, the exceptions being Sunny’s Halo in 1983 and Street Sense in 2007.

Big Brown was one of five starters in this year’s Derby with two preps. The others were Tale of Ekati (fourth), Recapturetheglory (fifth), Santa Anita Derby winner Colonel John (sixth) and Monba (20th).

So now, of the last 60 horses to try and win the Kentucky Derby with just two preps, 57 have failed.

WINNER HAD TWO STRIKES: In 1999, I came up with various key factors to determine how a Kentucky Derby candidate looks from a historical standpoint in terms of class, stamina, style and precedence. When a horse doesn’t qualify in one of the 10 categories, he or she gets a strike.

Big Brown had two strikes. One was for having fewer than six lifetime starts. The other was for having only two preps.

As I repeatedly said and wrote, with two strikes, it certainly was possible for Big Brown to win. Since 1999, each Kentucky Derby winner has had zero, one or two strikes. Here are the strikes each Derby winner has had since 1999:

1999 Charismatic (one strike)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (one strike)
2001 Monarchos (zero strikes)
2002 War Emblem (zero strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (two strikes)
2004 Smarty Jones (zero strikes)
2005 Giacomo (two strikes)
2006 Barbaro (one strike)
2007 Street Sense (one strike)
2008 Big Brown (two strikes)

It’s horses with three or more strikes that I toss out because, in my opinion, they have virtually no chance to win. That proved to be the case again this year.

This year’s starters with three strikes were Denis of Cork (third), Recapturetheglory (fifth), Anak Nakal (seventh), Court Vision (13th) and Bob Black Jack (16th). No one had more than three strikes.

SMOOTH AIR: My pick to win the roses, Smooth Air, started at 42-1. He broke badly and had his share of traffic woes. For a horse who probably should have been somewhere between sixth and 10th early, Smooth Air was taken completely out of his game. He was 18th with six furlongs to go after his early adversity. The little fellow did well to improve his position after that and finish 11th.

But, look, it’s obvious that Smooth Air was never going to beat Big Brown. I’d also say that, even with a better trip, Smooth Air probably was never going to beat Eight Belles. But without bad racing luck, Smooth Air could have finished third. The Beyer Speed Figures tend to confirm that supposition.

Smooth Air recorded a 98 Beyer when he ran second in the Florida Derby. He earned a 78 in the Kentucky Derby. If Smooth Air had been able to at least replicate his Florida Derby figure, it would have been good enough for third in the Kentucky Derby since Denis of Cork finished third with a 97 Beyer.

FLORIDA DERBY: The powers that be at Gulfstream Park have received considerable criticism ever since they moved the Florida Derby to five instead of seven weeks before the Kentucky Derby.

Well, it turns out that the current juxtaposition to the Kentucky Derby is working nicely for the Florida Derby. Barbaro in 2006 and Big Brown this year both won the Florida Derby five weeks before winning the roses.

DIRT RUNNERS RULE: The first four finishers in this year’s Kentucky Derby -- Big Brown, Eight Belles, Denis of Cork and Tale of Ekati -- had never raced on a synthetic track.

Recapturetheglory, fifth in the Derby, had not raced exclusively on the dirt at 3. He ran twice on Arlington Park’s Polytrack at 2, finishing third and ninth.

Santa Anita Derby winner Colonel John finished sixth in the Derby. He did the best of those who had raced on a synthetic surface at 3.

JOCKEY MAY GET ANOTHER SHOT AT CROWN: Kent Desormeaux deserves praise for his ride on Big Brown last Saturday. Desormeaux kept the colt in the clear and out of trouble from the outset. He didn’t use him too much early when within easy striking distance. Coming into the stretch, when Desormeaux pushed the button, the colt responded with a burst of speed that enabled him to open a daylight lead early in the stretch run.

This was the third Kentucky Derby victory for Desormeaux. He also won the roses in 1998 aboard Real Quiet and in 2000 with Fusaichi Pegasus.

It looks like Desormeaux may well get another chance to win the Triple Crown this year. When riding Real Quiet in the Belmont, Desormeaux opened a big lead coming into the stretch only to lose by a nose to Victory Gallop and Gary Stevens.

In the Belmont, if Big Brown and Desormeaux do indeed get a shot at the Triple Crown, I would anticipate that an older and more experienced Desormeaux will be cognizant of the importance of trying to have more gas left in the tank for the last part of the race with Big Brown than was the case with Real Quiet.

BETTER THAN HONOUR: Looking ahead to the possibility of Big Brown going for the Triple Crown in the June 7 Belmont Stakes, just think of what the broodmare Better than Honour could possibly accomplish in that race.

Better Than Honour recently was honored as the 2007 Kentucky Broodmare of the Year.

Jazil, a son of Seeking the Gold and Better Than Honour, won the 2006 Belmont.

Rags to Riches, a daughter of A.P. Indy and Better Than Honour, won the 2007 Belmont, the first filly to do so in 102 years.

And Casino Drive, a son of Mineshaft and Better Than Honour, might be running in the 2008 Belmont. A $950,000 purchase at the 2006 Keeneland September Sale, Casino Drive has started once, winning a 1 1/8-mile race by 11 1/2 lengths in Japan on Feb. 23. He recently arrived in New York and is expected to run at Belmont Park this Saturday in the Grade II Peter Pan Stakes.

If Better Than Honour were to produce three consecutive Belmont winners, it would be, without question, one of the greatest achievements in Thoroughbred racing -- and breeding -- history. In my eyes, it would trump trainer Woody Stephens’ incredible run of saddling five straight Belmont winners.

A trainer has an unlimited number of horses to draw from in trying to win the Belmont. A broodmare, however, can produce no more than one foal per year, making the odds astronomical that she could produce three Belmont winners in a row.

DREAM RACE: How fantastic would it be to see Big Brown, Curlin and undefeated filly Zenyatta in the same race?

DELTA DOWNS: The folks at Delta Downs were rooting for Z Humor last Saturday because they are trying to build the Grade III, $1 million Delta Jackpot into a race of significance vis-à-vis the Run for the Roses. Z Humor, trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, finished in a dead heat for first in the Delta Jackpot late last year. Z Humor ran 14th in the Kentucky Derby, but he did manage to defeat Cool Coal Man (winner of the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes, Bob Black Jack (winner of the Grade I Santa Anita Derby), Gayego (winner of the Grade I Arkansas Derby), Big Truck (winner of the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby), Adriano (winner of the Grade II Lane’s End Stakes) and Monba (winner of the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes).

EIGHT BELLES: In this year’s Kentucky Derby, Eight Belles, a filly, finished second, well clear of everyone other than Big Brown. Sadly, however, Eight Belles fell on the clubhouse turn after completing the race. She was reported to have suffered condylar fractures to both front ankles and was euthanized.

Eight Belles defeated 18 male rivals in the Run for the Roses. My initial visual impression was that she ran well enough to have won a lot of Kentucky Derbies. But the Beyer Speed Figures do not support that view. Eight Belles earned a 102 Beyer in the Derby. As noted by the list of winning Derby figures earlier in this column, the lone winner with a lower figure than Eight Belles was Giacomo, though it’s still pretty good that the filly’s 102 tied Sunday Silence in the Beyer department.

As well as Eight Belles ran in the Derby, she certainly proved she belonged. If Big Brown weren’t in the race, Eight Belles no doubt would have become the fourth filly to win the roses, joining the select club that includes Regret, Genuine Risk and Winning Colors.

I join so many others in offering my heartfelt condolences to owner Rick Porter (Fox Hill Farm), trainer Larry Jones and 20-year-old jockey Gabriel Saez.

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