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Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis | Sunday, August 22

by Jeff Siegel

August 22, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Saffron Moon; 3-Time for Cupid

Forecast: Time for Cupid is technically still a maiden, but she doesn’t know it. The daughter of Cupid finished first in her debut at Lone Star Park by more than four widening lengths and earned a decent speed figure in the process, but had her number taken down for a ticky-tack call so she’ll try to graduate again today. The purse in that race was $40,000; today’s purse is $100,000 so maybe the poor decision by Texas stewards will prove to be the proverbial blessing in disguise. Saffron Moon has done some decent work in the morning for C. Brown while appearing a tad the best with stable mate Dover Dreams in a pair of recent workouts, so we’ll toss her in on a ticket or two for protection. She lands J. Rosario and really hasn’t been asked for her best while displaying some early speed, so the daughter of Malibu Moon may be better than her morning line of 5-1 would indicate.

RACE 2: Post: 1:41 ET Grade: B
Use: 3-Fortineno; 9-Diamond Hands

Forecast: We’re going to handicap this race under the assumption that it will remain on grass. We’ll pass if it’s switched to the main track. Trainer C. Clement sends out an uncoupled entry of two first-time starters that have looked quite promising in team drills. Fortineno is an Irish-bred filly by Frankel, attracts J. Rosario, and has done most of her morning preparation breaking off in front of her workmates, having them join her in the stretch, and then holding them off and galloping out strongly. Hard to say what kind of strategy or running style she will display but she acts like a filly with more to give than her moderate times might indicate. Diamond Hands has been trained to lag and then accelerate late, so we’re expecting the daughter of Frosted to make here presence felt from off the pace under J. Castellano. Under the assumption that Rosario, who is the preferred jockey for the stable, has landed on the better of two, we’ll put Fortineno on top but include both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 3: Post: 2:15 ET Grade: C
Use: 1-Eagle Pass; 2-Bronzed; 5-Strolling

Forecast: Four of the six starters in this $16,000 claiming sprint have joined new barns since their last race, so what you see on recent form may not be what you get today. Bronzed used to be better than this when trained by J. Servis but the stakes-winning gelding has been away for two years and returns cheap, so new trainer R. Rodriguez probably isn’t looking at him as a long term proposition. He could fire a big shot, but the works are slow, so who really knows? Eagle Pass, claimed for $20,000 by a low percentage outfit and unraced since mid-June, has a race two back that would bury this group, but his work tab is sketchy and his current condition questionable. Strolling comes off a moderate win for $25,000 in a race that didn’t earn much of a figure and today drops a level after being transferred to the W. Potts barn. With so many question marks, the best advice is to spread as deeply as you can or simply pass the race.

RACE 4: Post: 2:49 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Jades Gelly; 7-What a Trick; 8-Lilly Simone

Forecast: We’ll handicap this race for turf only. If it’s transferred to the main track, we’ll pass. Lilly Simone was a clever maiden-claiming winner over this course and distance two races back and missed by a head in a similar starter’s allowance turf sprint after producing her typical good late kick. A repeat of either one of those efforts today makes her the one to beat. Jades Gelly, fourth in the same race our top pick exits, was fractious in the gate, broke slowly, and then closed a gap but too late. If she behaves herself today and leaves with her field, the K. Broberg-trained filly will make her presence felt. What a Trick, listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite, is clearly the quickest in the field and will take them as far as she can. Worn down in the final furlong with weakening to finish third in a listed turf sprint stakes at Pimlico last month, she’s facing softer foes today and may be able to wire the field, though on pure number her edge over the competition is minimal. These are the three we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with Lilly Simone earning a very slight edge on top

RACE 5: Post: 3:21 ET Grade: C+
Use: 1-Miss Peppina; 3-Cazilda Fortytales; 8-Quantitativbreezin

Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in the fifth race, a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. Cazilda Fortytales battled bravely under pressure on the front end in a similar event last month before being worn down late and winding up second. She shortens a furlong today and projects to be on or near the lead throughout again. Miss Peppina, away since February and going from T. Pletcher to G. Sciacca, had finished in the frame in four straight before being stopped on, and with a brief, uneven recent work tab it is hard to know just where she’s at off the bench. However, the presence of L. Saez in the saddle is promising. Quantitativbreezin has burned money in both in her last two starts but lands the cozy outside post in her first-off-the-claim for a barn that has had some success with this angle, so with the switch to J. Ortiz and with room to improve she’s worth including on your ticket.

RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade: C+
Use: 3-Shanghai Shamrock; 6-No Nannette No; 7-Landslid

Forecast: There’s not a whole lot of quality in this high-priced maiden claiming sprint for juvenile fillies so we’ll go three deep in our rolling exotics using a couple of class droppers and one first-time starter. Shanghai Shamrock has chased much tougher foes in three tries vs. maiden special weight company and although well-beaten in each race she earned speed figures that should be good enough to win in this league. Her last two outings were compromised by early trouble but with a good trip today she should be able to put her best stuff on display. Landslid, comfortably drawn outside, might be the quickest in the field, and if she can shake loose early the daughter of Flashback might get brave and keep on going. No Nannette No has looked fair to moderate in the morning leading up to her debut for G. Weaver. Against this group she should be reasonably competitive.

RACE 7: Post: 4:29 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-Rhythm Section; 3-Mud Pie; 5-Box N Score

Forecast: This race has been handicapped for turf. If it is switched to main track, we will pass the race. Mud Pie is a proven marathoner and given today’s 11-furlong trip the son of Morning Line will be hard to beat with a repeat of his impressive maiden score at Kentucky Downs last year. Off for six months and finishing a willing second in a middle distance affair in his comeback in June, the G. Arnold-trained colt should step forward today with the switch to L. Saez following a healthy series of recent workouts that should have him set for his best try. Box N Score shows rising speed figures with every start and with another forward move today he’ll be right there. This distance is well within his range and in his third start in his current form cycle the son of Lemon Drop Kid appears set for a major effort. Rhythm Section faltered in an off-the-turf event last month at this level, winding up a distant third. If this race remains on grass, the son of American Pharoah almost certainly will be the controlling speed and given that type of trip could take this field a long way.

RACE 8: Post: 5:05 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Kasim; 3-Ahead of Plan; 8-Montauk Daddy

Forecast: This race has been handicapped for turf. If it is transferred to the main track, we will pass the race. Kasim is a first-off-the-claim for D. Gargan (35% with a strong ROI), so we’ll expect the lightly-raced sophomores to produce a significant forward move in his first start since May while dropping from straight 3-year-old open $50,000 company to this restricted (nw-3) $35,000 seller for older horses. L. Saez probably will take hold early and cut him loose late, and with good racing luck the son of Munnings might be able to tag the speed close home. Ahead of Plan exits a pair of productive races, most recently finishing a close runner-up vs. similar at Belmont Park in late June. He’s a prior winner over this course and distance, so the C. Brown-trained gelding, first or second five of 10 career starts, looks very much like a major player. Montauk Daddy is the quickest in the field, and in his second start off a layoff the R, Atras-trained cold could prove elusive if he’s not pressured early. However, he’s been known to burn money and that last sixteenth always is troublesome, so we’ll include him on a ticket or two as a backup but not much more than that.

RACE 9: Post: 5:39 ET Grade: B-
Use: 3-Dunbar Road; 6-Gold Spirit

Forecast>: Three of the six entrants in this year’s renewal of the listed Summer Colony S. for older fillies and mares exit the Shuvee S.-G3 over this same course and distance last month. Dunbar Road, very wide into the lane before losing her punch late to wind up fifth, appeared a bit rusty and in need of the outing, so we’ll give her one more chance to return to top form. Victorious in the prestigious Alabama S.-G1 here in 2019, the veteran daughter of Quality Road has won six of 16 career starts but needs to show today that she still wants to do it. Gold Spirit, fourth in the Shuvee in her U.S. debut for C. Brown, is another that seems likely to produce a significant forward move, especially with the removal of blinkers and the switch to J. Rosario. A Grade-1 winner in Chile, she remains well regarded and shows two nice breezes since raced. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics with a slight edge on top to Dunbar Road.

RACE 10: Post: 6:13 ET Grade: C+
Use: 4-Leading West; 8-Voter Protection

Forecast: If this race is taken off the turf, we’ll pass. Voter Protection is another one of those Klaravich/C. Brown maiden-to-maiden claiming class droppers as the stable continues to cull many of its expensive purchases that haven’t panned out. This lightly-raced gelding, away since January and returning as a first-time gelding, missed at 40 cents on the dollar when last seen in a maiden state-bred affair in Florida but shows a healthy series of workouts at Monmouth Park to have him fit enough off the bench. Leading West is a 12-race maiden and not one to trust, but he’s quite competitive on numbers and should be a late threat for the powerful trainer/jockey combo of M. Maker/T. Gaffalione. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and while preferring Vote Protection on top.